Related to the original post for rivals investing, I also want to give a tip for timing the 'low' after rivals rewards
The ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis-Skelly trade did not work out well, seen so many traders lose coins here unfortunately -- overinvested and a lot more supply than expected BUT...
I do want to use this card as an example for when cards get their first 'real' supply -- this was a careless mistake I made during TOTY with ๐ซ๐ท Saliba where I took my biggest loss of the year. I should have made this post back then to teach people: ๐
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ MLS came out on Wednesday and was fluctuating between 200-250k before rivals rewards. Very little packs are opened on Wednesday which means that rivals rewards on Thursday bring the first mass supply cards like this
After the first hour he went from ~ 240k -> 160k. This does not show the full picture though because it is an hourly average, what actually happens is more like:
A huge drop in the first 5-10 minutes of supply with people undercutting each other, followed by a tiny rebound in the next 30-45 minutes. I was not watching too closely but I believe he went slightly under 150k at his lowest and rebounded up to ~ 165k in that first hour
The problem is, with such a massive drop (240k -> 165k) you have hundreds of cards that were listed for 239k, 238k, 238k, 238k 237k, 237k...191k,190k,189k...171k,170k,169k, etc. that never sold in that first hour; hundreds of people listing at a price that would never sell
So now you have another *huge* wave of relists because all of those cards listed between 165k and 240k never sold, so they all start another wave of listing and undercutting each other -- very hard for the card to not drop when you have the majority of the supply in the first 5-10 minutes of rewards that never sold all getting listed and undercut again
At this point I had already fallen asleep so I do not know exactly what happened in the next hours. I am assuming a lot of people bought during those next couple hours when the price seemed to plateau around 137k... I am assuming it was discords calling which kept the price up artificially this soon -- considering how harsh the drop was in the first couple hours, I would have expected it to drop for more than just the first hour of relists
Again, I was not online to see the exact movement. FUTBIN only shows the hourly average so I cannot see the entire story but I just wanted to explain this concept of 'waves of relists' when a card drops HEAVILY after getting mass-supplied for the first time
On the flipside, cards like FS already had a lot of supply the entire week so even though they did drop 10-20% momentarily from the mass supply, they were quickly bought up and all of the undercuts were gone within the first 20 minutes so there was no reason to worry about waves of relists coming in there