Market Thoughts:
Big way to kick off the week, as you may know the US and Iran have reached a peace deal. It was announced through Pakistan acting as mediator and has since been ratified by both sides, with an official signing ceremony lined up for Friday in Switzerland.
Risk assets liked it. BTC and the crypto market caught a bid on the headline, and equities pushed higher alongside them.
I think this time they actually go through with it, no TACO. Both sides confirming and a firm date on the calendar feels more committal than the usual headline and walk back cycle we've gotten used to.
One more thing on the radar, this Wednesday we get the first FOMC under the new Chair. A first meeting always carries extra weight, so we might see some extra volatility.
-
$BTC
For me
$BTC needs to flip 67k and hold above it to even have a shot at breaking 70k.
That said, I'm not overly impressed by the reaction so far. We just got peace announced on a war that had the entire market at its mercy for weeks and
$BTC still hasn't delivered the kind of move you'd reasonably expect off news this significant. When the catalyst is this big and the response is this muted, that tells you something about the underlying demand.
(extended
$BTC analysis post coming soon)
- Positioning / Bias
My overall read right now: I don't think we get a clean V recovery. I expect price to chop both ways. Yes, I'm keeping the door open for an upside spike, that's exactly why I'm still holding my
$SOL long, but my base case is that we roll back over and continue following the broader downtrend.
That's why I've opened my
$ETH short here.
Shorted $2M
$ETH
Might add if we get higher.