Thoughts on markets, economics, Bitcoin, eth🦇🔊 and AI. Non-tribal. Non-ideological. independent. moderate. Measured takes.
Joined April 2018
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27 Nov 2025
Two important macro economic lessons from the past 20 years:
- debt can be monetized without excessive inflation (see Fed post GFC)
- fiscal policy/helicopter money IS effective for quickly mitigating demand shortages and restoring full employment (see Post Covid)
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Love this story. Everyone should think like this.
🚨 RONALDO GIFTED A RESTAURANT TO THE WOMAN WHO FED HIM WHEN HE WAS 10–12 AND HAD NO MONEY🚨
Cristiano Ronaldo: :- “When I was kid 10-12 years old. I didn’t have money. Near our house, there was a McDonald’s. At night, we would go to the back door and ask the ladies if there were any leftover burgers. They used to give us food, and that meant a lot to me. Later in life, I tried very hard to find them again. When I finally did, I wanted to repay their kindness, so I invited them and gifted them a restaurant.”
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This can be highly misleading. They probably involve loans and equity stakes. I highly doubt anyone is going to just give Iran $300b.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 JD Vance confirms that Iran will get $300 billion for war damages
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I don’t know if the ultimate deal will be good, bad, or ugly. Nor does anyone else. I do know that MOU commits Iran not to develop a nuke and open the straight. If that’s all this deal does, and ends the conflict, that’s “good enough.”Regime change would have been the best possible outcome.
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As for the frozen $25b, that was done precisely bc they were pursuing a Nuke. Seems logical it would be unfrozen IF they comply. The devil here will be in the details. Regardless, Iran could spend billions just rebuilding what they lost in the conflict.
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Jun 15
Is it just me, or is the “for you” tab on X specifically designed to irritate you?
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Monetary Wonk retweeted
Jun 14
PAKISTAN PM SHARIF ANNOUNCES US-IRAN PEACE DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED FOLLOWING INTENSIVE TALKS. || SAYS BOTH US AND IRAN HAVE DECLARED IMMEDIATE AND PERMANENT CESSATION OF MILITARY OPERATIONS ON ALL FRONTS INCLUDING LEBANON.
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Monetary Wonk retweeted
Jun 14
If California and @GavinNewsom were able to get musks 1 trillion they could solve transportation problems by building upwards of 15 feet of high speed rail.
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Jun 14
This simply isn’t true. It depends.
A functioning govt enforces laws and property rights, and those jobs create stability that allows markets to flourish. It also has a military to protect its citizens. Last, good govt policy can prevent deep economic downturns when markets fail, preserving private sector jobs.
Granted, a govt need not be large to accomplish these, so big, bloated govt is a clearly an economic drag.
Jun 13
The government doesn’t create jobs
It can employ people, but when it does so it displaces wealth that would otherwise be creating more jobs in the real economy
That’s because government can’t create wealth—all it can do is redistribute wealth, and it does so poorly
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Jun 14
Just like the private sector, the govt jobs should have a positive ROI. Too often, that isn’t the case, but that doesn’t mean govt must be inefficient by virtue of its existence.
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Jun 14
Worth noting: Collapsing wealth will not help those that don’t own stocks. In fact, it will hurt them by destroying jobs. Wealth effects are real.
Jun 13
Worth noting: only 60% of Americans own stocks. And the top 10% owns 90% of them.
A booming stock market just magnifies inequality. The rich make out like bandits, the middle benefit a little bit, and the working class gets left behind as usual.
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Jun 13
Probably one of the biggest misconceptions people have. If anything, market wealth adds to spending. So it’s the opposite of what he says.
Jun 13
They took money out of the economy and tied it up in the stock market. If you make a fortune off of stock and keep it there. Followed by taking real money out via borrowing against stock. You are taking without ever giving back. Bwcause they dont pay the loans back. They simply keep the price of stock going up in order to borrow. Ist steroid banking at its peak and BARELY getting taxed over it. They take corporate welfare ( or taxes ) dont get taxed because of no paycheck, and live off of loans that never get put back unto the economy. The more millionaires/billionaires that have been created the deeper America has gone into debt🤷🤷🤷🤷🤷
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Jun 13
And fwiw, stock market valuations don’t “take money out of the economy”
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Jun 12
A staggering number and misleading. This is NOT even close to having $1t in the bank. If he tried to liquidate his holdings, he’d be lucky to end up with 10% of that.
Jun 12
BREAKING:
Elon Musk officially becomes the world’s first trillionaire.
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Jun 13
Iranian leadership can’t even afford a flight to Europe? Maybe Elon can help….
Jun 12
IRAN'S ARAGHCHI: IF THE FINAL STAGE OF NEGOTIATIONS IS COMPLETED, THE AGREEMENT WILL BE SIGNED REMOTELY BY BOTH SIDES AND THEN ANNOUNCED
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Monetary Wonk retweeted
Jun 13
Pakistani Prime Minister: Pakistan prepares to sign electronically on the US-Iranian peace agreement within 24 hours
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Jun 13
Few understand this….
Jun 13
I know I’m not going to change your mind, but look at these charts. Inflation (or tight money) has been the priority (as opposed to labor), and look where it got us. We spent most of the last 40 years under the inflation target, meanwhile labor as nearly always above full employment.
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Jun 13
The good billionaire, Buffet, made his money scalping but says all the right liberal things.
The bad billionaire, Musk, created countless jobs and revolutionary businesses, but says the wrong things politically, and is therefore hated.
The world we live in.
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Jun 13
USA men’s soccer - WOW! Best single half World Cup performance I’ve ever seen. This team has poise. No panic with the ball. Unafraid to pressure the ball. Pulisic is the real deal - can beat defenders 1v1. Seriously impressed. ❤️
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Monetary Wonk retweeted
Jun 12
Is she actually lecturing us about rich people from the back of a limousine 🤣
Jun 12
Elon Musk just became the world's first trillionaire. This needs to be a wake up call.
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