June 16 is the real macro danger day.
The Bank of Japan ends its meeting on June 16, with markets pricing in around an 80% chance of a hike to 1%.
If Japan hikes, it could pressure global liquidity, yen carry trades, tech stocks, and crypto.
Then on June 17, Kevin Warsh leads his first Fed decision as Chair.
Fed statement at 2 p.m. ET, press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Strong US jobs data has made the Fed setup more hawkish: strong employment plus sticky inflation means less room for rate cuts and higher yield risks.
My speculative call: If the BoJ hikes and Warsh sounds hawkish, risk assets could dump fast.
Crypto only survives if Warsh uses soft language like “data dependent,” “financial stability,” “liquidity support,” or “no urgent need to hike.”
This week is not only about charts it is about Japan liquidity plus Fed tone.
What do you think: crash first or fake dump then pump?