Joined February 2021
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Replying to @MoonlitMonkey69
There are really three things I have been waiting for this bear market. One has now happened. 1) Daily DPO green zone ✅ 2) Capitulation Daily Volume Spike ❌ 3) Mega bulls start calling for unrealistically low prices and turn bearish ❌
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Rio 3.5 Open 397B does appear marginally better in DeepSWE than Qwen Max. Which is honestly pretty impressive, although it's noteworthy they are just using nvidias open nemo datasets.
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If this turns out to be a goofy confused boomer panic over a mid tier partial jailbreak, and the USG doesn't retract, apologize and admit their mistake, it'll chill US AI development regardless. Could set back the industry years.
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What's even crazier is considering how pro-AI this govt has pretended to be, and also how not profitable and cash burning many of these companies are. They literally could have regulated TF out of it, and that would probably have been better than the ambiguity of this.
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This narrative smacks of taco.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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I ain't saying the USG will taco, and the damage is frankly already done, but if they were going to taco, this is what they'd say.
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😂
Maybe Anthropic's biggest mistake was giving their models names that sound like they should be sealed beneath a mountain.
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NGL I did not expect blockchain decentralized AI to get such a strong narrative so quickly, even though it just sounds on the surface like mashing together two hype trains, it might be a genuinely good idea.
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Ofc, it'll take a fucking decade before anything trained on that thing has any hope of being SOTA enough that any govt would care.
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How is it not seared into everyone's mind that politicians and govt generally have the knowledge and technical competency of children?
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Will everyone in the AI space still be in denial tomorrow? I suspect they will. In a week? Probably.
AI fan timeline stuck in total disbelief. They call it mere revenge on Anthropic. Say it won't apply to OpenAI. That it's temporary. Stock manipulation. TACO. Please god anything but this, their minds plea as they scramble to interprete it in some favorable way.

ALT Modi Dhruv GIF

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Normally there's a swift mental pipeline for AI fans from 'it's godlike!' to 'eh, it's mid' on a new model release. With access to the model now denied, it may remain mythologized as a digital god in the techno optimist faithful for some time. Schrodinger's homunculus
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AI fan timeline stuck in total disbelief. They call it mere revenge on Anthropic. Say it won't apply to OpenAI. That it's temporary. Stock manipulation. TACO. Please god anything but this, their minds plea as they scramble to interprete it in some favorable way.

ALT Modi Dhruv GIF

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I would never have imagined a bunch of childlike niave fantasists who portray themselves as hardened cynics.
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It does occur to me this still leaves math, and general knowledge outside of biology as areas the US govt will permit AI labs to advice in. Math, like code is bounded, so can improve a lot. But code is where these companies were getting most of their money from, not math.
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Smart move for openAI now would simply be to release a model 100% the same on benchmarks as 5.5, but with half the token cost. No advancement in capability. lol.
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Imagine how stupid you'd have to be, to love the stock market going up, fully powered by an AI bubble, and then stab at the heart of AI development, freezing it commercially in place like some soviet era shit.
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I kind of am in shock, lol. This is just all SO retarded.
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Imagine being an American superlab this day. Like OpenAI. Sitting there, half way through training your next model, and then you realize it's commercially useless now.
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This is both hilarious and tragic. The US govt has now brought fully into Anthropics weird regulatory capture IPO safety larp. Is it over for US AI development?
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Silver linings I suppose, this will probably be quite positive for the popularity of open source 🤷‍♂️
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This really is an incredible moment. It most certainly prevents very big models from being profitable, and puts the market viability of all US AI companies in even deeper question. It also makes the US data center build out make even less sense.
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