Another Germany-Curaçao loading?
Polymarket has Spain🇪🇸 at 90%, Cape Verde🇨🇻 at 3%, draw at 7%.
Same favorite-vs-debutant script that ended 7-1 yesterday.
But two things the market underweights.
First, debutants score: Curaçao actually tied 1-1 before Germany's class took over, and Cape Verde have a real good build up wiith Logan Costa.
Second, the opening-game trap is real: Spain themselves hammered Costa Rica 7-0 in 2022 and were home by the round of 16.
But how will de la Fuente manage this match? Both Yamal and Nico Williams are carrying hamstring issues and start from the bench, which barely dents Spain given the midfield of Rodri, Pedri, Ruiz, Olmo and Gavi is arguably the deepest in world football.
They conceded just 8 goals in 14 qualifiers. It's a team that suffocates you.
So the winner isn't probably where the edge lies. The margin might be.
Spain are on a 34-game unbeaten run and the spread sits at 2.5 goals.
That line, plus whether a rotated front line changes the goal ceiling, is where today's value actually is.