...Slow Bleed

Iran is Making More Money Now Than Before We Started Bombing Them

Who Runs Hormuz?

The War in Iran is Finally explaining the $175 billion sent to Ukraine

This war in Iran finally gave us the answer for why America funded Ukraine. The US waived sanctions on Russian oil two weeks into the Iran war. Urals crude went from $40 to $90 in three weeks. Before the invasion, Russia collected 45% of its federal budget from oil and gas. Four years of sanctions, price caps, and SWIFT disconnections cut that to 20%. Europe went from buying 27% of its crude from Moscow to 3% — replaced by American oil and LNG. Venezuela captured in January. Iran's exports down 52% since February 28th. The world's three largest heavy crude producers are now offline, destroyed, or selling through a channel Washington controls. The 28-point peace deal offers Russia staged sanctions relief, joint energy cooperation, Arctic mineral access. Supervised reintegration on American terms. $175 billion bought permanent European energy dependency on the US, the most comprehensive financial warfare toolkit in modern history, and the leverage to turn Russia into a managed supplier inside an American-led architecture. Full breakdown and energy positioning on the Substack.

Taiwan Invasion Goldilocks Window The answer is 2027-2030. Here’s why. Right now China can’t do it. Their domestic chips can’t replace what TSMC produces, their amphibious fleet isn’t built out, and the US has a $10 trillion economic reason to defend the island. But three things are converging simultaneously. 1. The US is building TSMC backup fabs in Arizona. Every one it finishes erodes the economic argument for defending Taiwan. The chip monopoly that makes the island worth dying for is being copied onto American soil. The shield is cracking from the inside. 2. China’s SMIC is scaling 7nm volume. Huawei’s Ascend line is doubling production. CXMT is pushing into memory. They’re stockpiling chips for exactly this scenario. Not matching TSMC — surviving without it. 3.The PLA’s amphibious capability hits readiness. The Type 075 and 076 fleet is filling out. Joint Sword exercises rehearsed the blockade and landing playbook. The logistics chain is maturing. Somewhere between 2027 and 2030 all three lines cross. China can absorb the chip disruption. The US economic case for intervention has weakened. The military option is ready. Before that window — China destroys its own supply chain. After it — the prize has already been cloned to Arizona and there’s nothing left worth taking. That’s the Goldilocks window. Not too early. Not too late. And both sides know it’s open.

Taiwan Goldilocks Window

The US is executing a leveraged buyout of Cuba while you're focused on Iran

WTI futures curve as of tonight. April: $114.77 January 2027: $74.02 $40.75 of backwardation. The front month is pricing 9 days of Hormuz closure, Iraq losing 70% of southern output, and Gulf producers running out of storage. The back end is pricing the pre-war world. The market is not pricing $114 as permanent. It is pricing a supply squeeze with an expiration date. And while it lasts — China imports 11 million barrels a day through a strait that's closed. The US produces more than it consumes from Western Hemisphere crude that never touches Hormuz. The temporary pain is landing on the exact rival this operation was designed to squeeze.

While everyone's focused on Iran, the US is executing a leveraged buyout of Cuba through a Treasury licensing structure. They captured Maduro on Jan 3. Venezuela's 35,000 bpd to Cuba went to zero overnight. Threatened tariffs on every country that ships oil to the island. Mexico folded in 48 hours. By March — 64% of Cuba is dark. 2,000 MW grid deficit. 20-hour blackouts. No jet fuel at 9 airports. Hospitals on generators. Then on Feb 25, Treasury quietly opened a licensing channel allowing Venezuelan oil to be resold to Cuba's private sector only. Not the state. Not the military. Private businesses. US dollars. US banks. US oversight. They starved the regime and built a side door only the private sector can walk through. This is a leveraged buyout of a sovereign nation running through OFAC licensing guidance that nobody on your timeline is reading

Iran threw everything it had at two carrier groups, 8 countries, and called it “the most devastating offensive in Islamic Republic history.” The result: a hotel fire in Dubai and a 7% oil spike the market is already selling. S&P basically didnt move. Not 16% like Kuwait. Not 12% like Russia-Ukraine. China watched its “strategic partner” get decapitated in real time and responded with a press release. This was never just about Iran. It was a proof of concept. Air defenses held. Carriers untouched. Proxy networks broken. Markets stable. And every country that assumed American threats were negotiating tactics just recalculated. The US didn’t just greenlight the next operation. It published the manual.

Khamenei is dead. Hormuz is closed. Navy is sinking. 1,000 targets hit. Oil Futures are Out: WTI: $69.67. Up 3.95%. The market doesn't care about your World War 3 timeline. It's pricing regime change and moving on. Iran sits on the 4th largest oil reserves and 2nd largest gas reserves on earth. 45 years of sanctions ending. Here's where the money goes: Strike window (Now): CVX, XOM — oil spike VLO, MPC — domestic refiners win when global supply scrambles LMT, NOC, RTX — weapons expenditure and resupply Rebuild (6-24 months): SLB — oilfield services, Iran's fields need full rehabilitation TotalEnergies — had a signed 20-year South Pars contract before sanctions, walks back in BP — discovered oil in Iran in 1908, needs reserve replacement BKR — LNG infrastructure buildout Corridor (5 years): PLTR — embedded in every post-conflict transition since Afghanistan ETN — Iranian grid buildout Haifa-to-Muscat corridor infrastructure Three time horizons. One thesis. Iran's energy stops working against America and starts working for it. Not financial advice. Please do your own research

Everyone in your mentions screaming "Israel runs America" while the US just used Israel to fight its war, destroy its enemy's military, decapitate its rival's leadership, and hand itself control of Middle Eastern energy flows. Israel flew 200 jets. America got the oil map redrawn. Tell me again who's using who lol

THE GREENLAND RANSOM NOTE: THE CHINA HEDGE NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT The "Buy Greenland" headlines are noise. The 10% tariff on Denmark is the signal. This isn’t a trade dispute. It is a hostage negotiation. 1. The Trigger: China Closed the DoorLast week, China implemented the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) on rare earth magnets, effectively closing the "Japan Loophole." Reality: We can no longer bypass Chinese export bans by routing through Japanese refiners. Impact: The US supply chain for the F-35 and the national grid is currently zero. 2. The Leverage: The Denmark SqueezeThe US government needs the Kvanefjeld inventory (Greenland) immediately. Denmark cannot sell the island constitutionally. The offer to "buy" it is a trap designed to be rejected. The Move: A 10% blanket tariff on Denmark, effective Feb 1st. The Goal: Crush the Danish export economy until they agree to the settlement. 3. The Mechanism: 1951 Defense TreatyThe market is pricing in a "Sale." The smart money is pricing in a Seizure. We will utilize Article II of the 1951 Defense Treaty, which allows the US to designate "Defense Areas" within Greenland. We designate the mine a defense asset. We take operational control. Denmark keeps the flag. The tariffs are lifted. 4. The Market Signal (The Alpha)Look at Energy Transition Minerals ($GDLNF). This is the shell company holding the mining license. It crashed ~30% this week. If a buyout was coming, this stock would be a multi-bagger. It is going to zero because under an Article II seizure, the equity holders get nothing. The US Military does not pay licensing fees to penny stocks. THE TRADES: SHORT: Maersk ($MAERSK-B) Thesis: The "Designated Hostage." The tariff destroys their trans-Atlantic shipping volume. Execution: Short the native Copenhagen ticker. The US ADR ($AMKBY) is illiquid and hard to borrow. LONG: MP Materials ($MP) Thesis: The only operational domestic hedge. With China cutting off the Japanese back door, MP is the only game in town for DoD contracts. Status: DoD is already the largest shareholder. This is a national security play, not a value trade. The map changed yesterday. Position accordingly. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed are based on personal analysis and opinion. Markets are volatile, and all trading involves significant risk. You should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The deficit isn't a liability. It is War Financing. .@elonmusk The USA is printing trillions for Imperialism 2.0: AI Compute (The Sword) Supply Chain Sovereignty (The Shield) This is a leveraged bet. If the USA wins the AI race, the world pays rent in USD for the code. The debt becomes irrelevant. If the USA loses, the dollar collapses anyway. Panic about the nominal number is useless. Survival is expensive.

The USA isn't intervening in Mexico to save lives. It is intervening to secure assets. The narrative about "fighting drugs" is for the voters. The reality is about protecting the US industrial base. Here are the economic facts: 1. Critical Manufacturing DependenceThe North American supply chain is fully integrated. A single automotive part crosses the US-Mexico border up to 8 times during production. You cannot sever this link without crashing the US auto industry. 2. Energy SubsidiesThe USA pipes 7.5 Billion Cubic Feet of natural gas into Mexico every day. The US is powering 60% of Mexico's electrical grid to ensure factories in Monterrey keep running. 3. The Operational Risks. The status quo is no longer profitable for US interests: The Cartel Tax: Cartels levy a 15-20% extortion fee on logistics. This destroys margins for US companies. The China Loophole: The CCP uses Mexican ports to bypass tariffs and re-label goods as "Made in Mexico." The Objective:The incoming administration is securing a perimeter around these assets. The goal is a sanitized industrial corridor, not a nation-building exercise. The Trades 1. Logistics: CPKC (Canadian Pacific Kansas City)Trucking is vulnerable to border closures and checkpoints. Rail is not. CPKC operates the only single-line railway connecting Canada, the USA, and Mexico. When the border tightens, freight moves to the rails. 2. Real Estate: FIBRA Macquarie (FIBRAMQ)Factories cannot move overnight. This REIT owns 243 industrial properties. 80.5% of their rents are paid in US Dollars. It allows you to own Mexican industrial land without exposure to the Peso crashing. 3. Surveillance: Kratos Defense (KTOS)The US will not deploy thousands of infantry. It will deploy a digital surveillance net. Kratos manufactures the tactical drones and sensor systems required to monitor the border zone. Stop watching the news. Watch the supply chain. #macro #geopolitics #economics #supplychain #investing #CPKC #FIBRAMQ #KTOS

The Bottom Line: The war has moved from the battlefield to the balance sheet. Russia is trying to make the Western coalition too expensive to maintain. It’s not about "Winning." It’s about increasing the Global Beta. If you’re tracking these flows, follow for more modern macro analysis. 🌐📈 #Macro #Geopolitics #OOTT #EconTwitter (7/7)