2025 has seen a marked reduction in changes of control. Rebel groups have captured just 3 major towns this year: Indaw, Falam and Banmauk. However SAC forces have retaken 6: Lashio, Demoso, Thabeikkyin, Nawnghkio, Kyaukme & Hsipaw.
The change in trend is not yet significant to show a full reversal, but it is clear that the momentum of rebel gains seen after the start of Operation 1027 has come to a halt in 2025.
The upcoming election period may see further shifts. Both sides have motivation to escalate in this period, seeking symbolic victories to demonstrate their power. This next phase will be critical, though likely not decisive for the ongoing civil war.