Is
#Altseason DEAD? ☠️
In January 2025, I predicted an Altcoin rally in Q3/Q4🔮.
Although we reached an ATH in Total Market Capitalization annual highs for exchange tokens and Layer 1's, the altcoin season never came... 😢
Despite a very weird 10/10 event (largest crypto liquidation ever) which is still opaque & shady...
I'm more confident in my research than back then so...
Here is my 2026 SUPERCYCLE thesis w/ KEY FACTS📊
➖2024-2025 Data clearly show that Small Cap assets had a poor performance across ALL major stock markets except AI) so it's not just
#altcoins ( 📉
🟰The MOST correlated stock index with
#altcoin seasons is the Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks with a $900M market cap median). Almost perfectly correlated.
In the past 10 years, the Russell 2000 PUMPED & DUMPED (>-20% in 2018; 2022) almost perfectly in sync with every
#Altseason since the ICO boom.
In 2024-25,
#S&P &
#Nasdaq (Large Cap Stocks) DOUBLED the returns of the Russell 2000 (Small Cap Stocks) where a few major large cap stocks generated the majority of all gains (mainly AI). This behaviour was also seen in crypto where
#bitcoin #solana #bnb #Ethereum (Large Cap Crypto Assets) are generating the majority of gains in 2024-2025.
The Russell's 2000 / small-cap stocks', underwhelming 2024-2025 performance, is nearly identical to Mid-low cap
#altcoins... Once again, this correlation has been in the case for every single year since 2016.
The question is WHY are we not POOR but PRE-RICH⁉️
1⃣) Risk sentiment. Geopolitical volatility creates a risk-off appetite. HNWIs are not interested in risking crypto and more comfortable with stocks for now.
2⃣) Fed rates: There has NEVER been a mid to
small-cap rally with Fed rates above 2%. Reason is investors are not willing to take the risk to borrow money and speculate.
3⃣) Business cycle has a lag before the middle class sees more disposable income to invest. GDP growth is great for the private sector but not enough for the masses, we need lower inflation and higher wages.
2⃣3⃣ criteria are the most important as 1⃣ is mainly emotional and can change rapidly with greed...
So far, we are moving in the right direction for
#altseason2026 💚
End of Q1 / Early Q2 is my target. DCA 🚀🚀🚀