Bitcoin hasn't even broken above the 2021 high and people are already calling for $100k. We're not out of the woods.

Yen shorts are at their highest level in 2 years. Tomorrow the BOJ is expected to hike rates. But, if they signal more hikes ahead, those shorts unwind fast. This could have broader implications for the carry trade - as it did in July 2024. Watch closely.

Aged like milk in the Strait of Hormuz sun.

As I thought, a deal has been reached - and here's what's actually in it. US & Iran agree a 60-day MoU: - Hormuz reopens: Iran demines, no tolls, free transit - US lifts naval blockade on Iranian ports - Iran gets waiver to sell oil immediately - Nuclear talks begin on Iran's HEU - Broader sanctions relief only after verified progress ("performance-based") Signing is scheduled for Friday but markets won't wait for the paperwork. Oil falls sharply, stocks & bonds rally, inflation expectations reverse, the Fed gets room to pause rather than hike. The single biggest disinflationary event of 2026.

I'm genuinely concerned about Strategy's position right now. Trading at 84% of its Bitcoin value, every option available to them makes things worse: - Issue stock → dilutes BTC per share - Issue more prefs → adds to a $10.7B cash obligation - Sell Bitcoin → panic the market & drive price lower - Suspend dividends → retail holders flee There is no clean exit.

Most people are focused on the SpaceX IPO & the AI equity boom. That's the small part. $4.7 trillion has been raised across global capital markets in 2026 - equity, investment grade debt, high yield, leveraged loans, private credit. Capital raising is going exponential.

The dollar's stranglehold on global payments is being challenged, and this time it's serious. China, UAE, Saudi Arabia & Thailand just finalised a cross-border digital currency system that settles international payments in seconds, at half the cost of Swift, and without the dollar as the intermediary. It's called mBridge. It processes transactions directly between central banks in their own digital currencies. $69bn has already moved through it. Remember all the talk about BRICS Pay & de-dollarisation? This is what it actually looks like when it moves from idea to infrastructure.

If a US-Iran deal is signed today, I hope it's the first step to a lasting peace in the region. I know there's a long way to go, but I would prefer to be optimistic for a more harmonious Middle East.

6M BTC including Satoshi's coins could be stolen by a quantum computer, and nobody can agree what to do about it. That's the conclusion from a Coinbase advisory board with some of the world's best cryptographers. While adding quantum-safe signatures to a blockchain is possible, the hardest what to do with all the coins that nobody moves before deadline.

China is losing the AI race. 4 US companies will outspend 9 Chinese giants 7:1 on capex in 2026. The gap is widening every quarter.

The White House crypto council director says he's "optimistic" CLARITY passes before July 4th. Kalshi has the odds of it passing before July at 2%. Unless they have a vote scheduled July 1-3, I call bs.

The Iran-US deal may finally be happening. Here's why this time is different from the last 10 false alarms. - Pakistan's PM just confirmed that the final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached. - Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed on state television. - Iran resumed diplomatic relations with the UAE last week - A US official confirmed talks are "85% complete." We've never had so many things line up at the same time. Israel-Lebanon remains a wild card and flare ups in Hormuz could derail it - but it's closer than it's been before. Wouldn't want to be short here.

SpaceX is the 8th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin - ahead of Coinbase. They have nearly 20k BTC on their balance sheet which they bought for an average price of c. $35k. Pro: Great for corporate treasury signaling Con: They decide to sell?

Finally!! After days of consecutive large outflows, Bitcoin ETFs had their first day of inflows yesterday. $85m. It ain't much, but at least it's something ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anthropic: "The government should have the power to block or deter deployment if it is determined to present risks" Also Anthropic: "Claude Mythos is so dangerous, it presents cybersecurity risks" US government: "Your wish is our command" Anthropic: "Nooo, not like that"

On the same day that SBF gets his appeal shot down, he discovers that FTX's SpaceX investment has 14x'ed. Karma.

This is WILD. The SpaceX IPO is destroying other space stocks. - Virgin Galactic down 28% - AST SpaceMobile down 9% - Redwire Corp down 5% - Rocket Lab down 5% It's one massive liquidity vacuum & these stocks are first in line.

SPCX has a latest indicated price of $165 a share - about 22% pop on listing. That's not too far from where the pre-markets were trading with an implied market cap of $2.1 trillion. Hyperliquid & polymarket traders priced it better that the bookrunners lol.

Hard to tell how SpaceX trades today, next week and in the next few months. But on Tesla's first day, it jumped 40%. It then fell below the IPO price a few days later. However, someone who bought Tesla on IPO day would have 352x.

Anthropic charges 50x more per token than DeepSeek. But now, companies are finding that DeepSeek does the same job for 90% of tasks. New AI routing tools let companies automatically send routine tasks to cheap models - allowing 500 companies to already switch. OpenAI & Anthropic are both heading toward $1 trillion IPOs with valuations built on this pricing.