Most people are focused on the SpaceX IPO & the AI equity boom. That's the small part. $4.7 trillion has been raised across global capital markets in 2026 - equity, investment grade debt, high yield, leveraged loans, private credit. Capital raising is going exponential.

The dollar's stranglehold on global payments is being challenged, and this time it's serious. China, UAE, Saudi Arabia & Thailand just finalised a cross-border digital currency system that settles international payments in seconds, at half the cost of Swift, and without the dollar as the intermediary. It's called mBridge. It processes transactions directly between central banks in their own digital currencies. $69bn has already moved through it. Remember all the talk about BRICS Pay & de-dollarisation? This is what it actually looks like when it moves from idea to infrastructure.

If a US-Iran deal is signed today, I hope it's the first step to a lasting peace in the region. I know there's a long way to go, but I would prefer to be optimistic for a more harmonious Middle East.

6M BTC including Satoshi's coins could be stolen by a quantum computer, and nobody can agree what to do about it. That's the conclusion from a Coinbase advisory board with some of the world's best cryptographers. While adding quantum-safe signatures to a blockchain is possible, the hardest what to do with all the coins that nobody moves before deadline.

China is losing the AI race. 4 US companies will outspend 9 Chinese giants 7:1 on capex in 2026. The gap is widening every quarter.

The White House crypto council director says he's "optimistic" CLARITY passes before July 4th. Kalshi has the odds of it passing before July at 2%. Unless they have a vote scheduled July 1-3, I call bs.

The Iran-US deal may finally be happening. Here's why this time is different from the last 10 false alarms. - Pakistan's PM just confirmed that the final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached. - Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed on state television. - Iran resumed diplomatic relations with the UAE last week - A US official confirmed talks are "85% complete." We've never had so many things line up at the same time. Israel-Lebanon remains a wild card and flare ups in Hormuz could derail it - but it's closer than it's been before. Wouldn't want to be short here.

SpaceX is the 8th largest corporate holder of Bitcoin - ahead of Coinbase. They have nearly 20k BTC on their balance sheet which they bought for an average price of c. $35k. Pro: Great for corporate treasury signaling Con: They decide to sell?

Finally!! After days of consecutive large outflows, Bitcoin ETFs had their first day of inflows yesterday. $85m. It ain't much, but at least it's something ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anthropic: "The government should have the power to block or deter deployment if it is determined to present risks" Also Anthropic: "Claude Mythos is so dangerous, it presents cybersecurity risks" US government: "Your wish is our command" Anthropic: "Nooo, not like that"

On the same day that SBF gets his appeal shot down, he discovers that FTX's SpaceX investment has 14x'ed. Karma.

This is WILD. The SpaceX IPO is destroying other space stocks. - Virgin Galactic down 28% - AST SpaceMobile down 9% - Redwire Corp down 5% - Rocket Lab down 5% It's one massive liquidity vacuum & these stocks are first in line.

SPCX has a latest indicated price of $165 a share - about 22% pop on listing. That's not too far from where the pre-markets were trading with an implied market cap of $2.1 trillion. Hyperliquid & polymarket traders priced it better that the bookrunners lol.

Hard to tell how SpaceX trades today, next week and in the next few months. But on Tesla's first day, it jumped 40%. It then fell below the IPO price a few days later. However, someone who bought Tesla on IPO day would have 352x.

Anthropic charges 50x more per token than DeepSeek. But now, companies are finding that DeepSeek does the same job for 90% of tasks. New AI routing tools let companies automatically send routine tasks to cheap models - allowing 500 companies to already switch. OpenAI & Anthropic are both heading toward $1 trillion IPOs with valuations built on this pricing.

SpaceX shares on Hyperliquid are trading 30% above the IPO price. Prediction markets have a 77% chance of the market cap being above $2 trillion on close. Whether that holds when real money shows up is the question.

The quantum threat will come sooner than you think. All previous timelines & projections didn't account for the massive amount of investment & research going into the space. 2030 may have been conservative.

It's pretty crazy that a country in Europe is actually allowing their citizens to vote on capping migration. This Sunday, Swiss citizens will vote on capping its population at 10m. The vote remains too close to call - but still impressed to see people actually have a choice.

Soooo, what do we think: Is a deal with Iran really about to be signed?

We're supposed to believe the financial markets are incredibly sophisticated & yet they continue to be blindsided by obvious Trump pivots & Tacos. Best evidence yet against the Efficient Market Hypothesis.