I think that the overall analysis is very solid for where web3 gaming is right now. We have always said web3 hasn't done its job well for providing true enhancement of the gamer experience.
As i have always said the only true value proposition for web3 technology is ownership of digital things. Solving the double spend problem unlocked this amazing everything else in web3 is built on that premise
For gaming that value has been thin for lots of reasons mentioned by Ed but primarily because of lack of interoperability, owning something that and only exist in one game economy is the exact same experience as web2 for gamers. When we tell web2 gamers "now you can own your thing you love" and they then try that out and find out they actually can't do anything different its no wonder the perception of web3 gaming is negative.
Yes web3 has more efficient market place for trading but its only a slightly incremental improvement.
Ed makes a great point about how hard interoperability is to achieve due to the way gaming pipelines work again we have outlined this many times ourselves its an extremely complex multi domain problem few have tackled .
This is why we have spent so much time on the UBF standard to simplify and scale interoperability you can read about it here.
docs.futureverse.com/1134b65… .
Some of the other problems Ed mentions are further solved when you combine UBF with the Murmur Matrix
futureverse.com/research/evo… and with something like
@alteredstateai which can create on the fly re renderings/re-texturing from blueprint and matrix data.
I also believe the analysis is true in the context of the current market structure for gaming and studios but i believe that this will fundamentally change soon. We are at the end of the $1B AAA title era.
Studios could create moats and lock in users to their gated content ecosystems and markets because they had the capital to create the best titles and creating the best takes capital. But with AI progressing as fast as it is those economics will entirely alter.
Gaming will soon resemble social media/memes because the same thing is happening now that happened then. Users are being given the tools to become creators and publishers. The amount of quality games being created will skyrocket.
Walled gardens exist because of capital , people have the money to build something that most people can’t do so they can capture users because of that.
That world is disappearing.
Right now 40 new games come to steam a day. Soon a billion people will make games every day.
Game economies will resemble memes in how they are created and distributed monetisation will resemble meme coins, fast , frequent, plentiful, few winners , short term wins.
In this sea of content with temporal value what will become important.
Tooling
Identity
Interoperability
Discoverability
Obviously picks and shovels will generate value , they always have in these scenarios making tools that enable this kind of creativity will and is already generating value. But these tools need to be made with the other 3 things in mind in order to truely win.
If new games are coming every second, if playing a game resembles scrolling your feed then users will value their digital identity more , they will want to take their avatar or branded collectable with them wherever the next game is today just like they take their profile from post to post in social media.
Users will want to take the things which carry real personal value or social capital like their favourite sports team jumper or celebrity avatar or branded accessories with them.
This in turn will drive a preference for interoperability , if I love my avatar I will want to take it everywhere just like my social media profile goes with me from meme to meme. Games that build for interoperability will win more users , if a sports club has a million interoperable avatars and your game accepts them they will tell each other and go there to check it out.
This will also mean that they will want their social graph, messaging and more to be portable between these games and experiences just like their social media profile is today.
Brands and communities that embrace this will win those that don’t will become less and less visible and less and less preferred to these users. Developers and platforms that embrace it will win too.
With this sea of new content and the ability for users to move between these things easily the next important thing is discoverability both for developers and for users wading through the masses of content to find the thing I value will also be important. Just like your TikTok algorithm is important to you now or google was for the current version of the internet and your agent will be in the next version.
Naturally this leads back to the same key of interoperability if you understand what assets are interoperable where you can recommend to users things that fit what they have if you can tell developers what users have they can optimise for the audience they want to get too. Combining this with social mechanics that group users around the things they own and love already allows communities to co-discover, recommend and raid new experiences together.
Thats why we have been building the protocols and tools for a world where 3b gamers who will make their own games.
Altered State is our SOTA generative 3D tooling built with interoperability in mind. Everything generated can be owned by a user and seamlessly taken with them between any experience on any engine. Not only that Altered State assets contain unique patented metadata that allows LLMs to understand those objects so that user agents can discover and recommend what is compatible where.
SYLO is our user identity and social graph that makes it possible for people to take their social network between games and experiences as well as their core identity and assets.
UBF is our standard for interoperability that allows content like their avatar or favourite sports team wearable to follow users everywhere they go.
The Readyverse is the social discovery engine for connected experiences built by anyone its the front end for users to generate interoperable content and its the front door for brands to become part of this new phase of gaming and of the internet.