the leg of the ai trade is onchain metals x.com/NashRate/status/206576…

everyone prices ai in gpus and power. nobody prices it in metal copper, silver, lithium: zero spot markets onchain cme sells you a curve. coinbase holds your claim. hyperliquid sells you funding rates nobody sells you the metal gap is venue design. has to be a dex

$GOOGL about to do to ai what amazon did to books undercut all frontier labs on token cost as long as it takes to win

Q2 2027

If you've been following me for a while you know that I've been about as vocal a $hype bull as there has been for years. A few things have changed, however, that makes the no-brainer long no longer so obvious for me. 1. If Saylor kills btc with his mstr ponzi and the rest of crypto dies with it, this is a huge blow to hyperliquid trading volumes. Majority of hype volume is still crypto. If crypto degens mass migrate to trading stocks, hype is then forced to compete with tradfi brokers for trading volume. It can do this, but it's a much tougher game. The norm for places like Schwab and Robinhood is zero fees. Hype the way it currently is structured is an order of magnitude more expensive. Fees will have to come in or volumes will come down. Sure the gray money that can't kyc will be forced to trade there but folks who can migrate and actually track their trading costs will migrate. 2. Perps are now legal in the US. All the tradfi brokers will now be competing for a slice of the perp pie - not to mention the other crypto players like Kalshi and Polymarket. The incumbents are also cozy with regulators. Hype will be the outsider in this politics game and the pre-ipo product will definitely come under scrutiny. 3. Hype FDV is now trading basically at Robinhood's market capitalization. The risk-reward at $75 is very different than when it was trading around $10 during the JellyJelly attack. If one has a bullish view on crypto in general, $hype is the obvious asset to long in my opinion - replacing btc and eth in prior cycles. If one does not have a bullish view on crypto, however, I don't think it's the obvious buy it once was now that etfs are live and it's trading at the valuation it is.

2017: blockchain not btc 2026: blockchain not eth

now we crab here all summer set bids and go to the beach

Not a huge fan that vcs can now jack a stock up to nosebleed vals and force the entire american public to buy it after via indexes

crypto: a network. a tool for coordination. ai: a computer. a tool for acceleration.

every complex character ever.. including you, the person reading this.. is shinji ikari

spot is more important than perp for rwas perp dexs need a spot venue to let users post spot as margin unlocks basis traders who buy spot, short perp, earn the funding rate keeping funding rates in check at the same time

feeling like pure euphoria in stonks good momentum and likely continued melt up but good day to derisk

very few verticals in crypto make money through all cycles e.g. tough to turn a profit as a money market rn trading platforms for institutional or pro traders are paradoxically the least cyclical and best margins

an uncomfortable truth

hyperliquid cleared a path for trading businesses to accrue as much value or more than the underlying networks biblical re-rating for profitable trading apps coming in 2027

gm