It's easy to bash the Treasury here. But it's the Treasury's job to make the sums add up, so that we meet the fiscal rules, etc. The core problem is the government *as a whole* has committed to spend 3%, then 3.5%, of GDP on defence but doesn't want to pay for it.

Defence Investment Plan (yet another DIP update): - discussions between Treasury, MOD and No10 still “live” as of last night despite earlier claims that a long-running disagreement over a proposed ~£13bn additional uplift in funding was largely resolved (this figure is much less than the military say they need and is regarded - to put it mildly - as “not enough”) - Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton has written to the Prime Minister amid concerns that the funding boost proposed by the Treasury is not enough. I don’t know what the content of the letter was. But clearly this highly unusual move is a signal of the seriousness of the moment and the challenge that Sir Keir Starmer faces to get a credible and affordable Defence Investment Plan over the line. It is worth adding that it’s perfectly legitimate for a CDS to write to a PM but not the kind of action he would take regularly - expectations valiantly hanging in there for an announcement of a vast new defence drone testing centre to happen in Swindon on Friday. Various start-ups were as of yesterday still making plans to go (me too - was there last week, could make this a regular commute). The talk last night had been about this drone testing moment being something that could take place to coincide with some words from the PM announcing top line figures of the funding for defence and some of the key programmes in the DIP. But this clearly can’t happen until there is a firm agreement on the settlement - DIP then unveiled in full on Monday before the PM heads off to the G7 (though again this presumably can’t happen unless the money is green lit) (It is worth saying that this extraordinary display of confusion and paralysis at the heart of government over what is meant to be a strategic priority – the defence of the nation – has left officials inside the MoD, the military and defence industry slack-jawed)

EXC: Eleventh-hour No10 bid to fund defence investment plan revealed in today's Sunday Times *All departments now ordered to cut 1 per cent off their capital budgets – due to raise around £6bn *DESNZ and transport to suffer larger cuts but those to NHS causing most concern *Rachel Reeves "deeply frustrated" With @domhauschild @ShaunLintern

🚨 𝗡𝗘𝗪: England will have to face New Zealand on this pitch tonight! 😳

EXCLUSIVE Sir Keir Starmer is expected to approve an £18 billion increase in defence spending as he faces a battle for political survival thetimes.com/article/b5c26a6… with @Steven_Swinford and @oliver_wright

EXCL: Andy Burnham’s first broadcast interview since confirming he’d join any potential Labour leadership contest • is ‘sympathetic’ to reversing the gov’s NI rise for employers • asked why he believes he’d be a better PM than Keir Starmer says ‘I’m not getting into that’ • bringing utilities under ‘strong public control’ cld mean ‘much tougher regulation OR public ownership’ • asked multiple times *how* he wld pay for bringing energy, water, housing, transport into public control, says ‘You do it over a long period of time’ • asked abt the fiscal rules says, ‘'I know what the fiscal rules are ...we will set out a plan that is within those rules' Interview across the BBC soon..

EXC: PM tells me @LBC Defence is his 'top priority’ and doesn’t rule out cuts to departments to pay for DIP - Will come before NATO summit and will be 'fully funded' - Says we have to be 'ready for war' - 'we face a more dangerous, more volatile world than at any time during my or your lifetime' - 'I've always said we need to go further. We have to meet this moment. It's the first duty of the Prime Minister to keep our country safe.' "I've always said we're going to have to spend more on defence and so we will set out the funding in relation to the Defence Investment Plan. "It is about a question of priorities and this is the top priority. I think everybody watching or listening to this will know in their heart of hearts that that has to be the top priority, defending our country, particularly at the moment."

Andy Burnham has made his first pledge for the Labour leadership - he said he will cut business rates for pubs and music venues by 20% if he becomes prime minister He accused Sir Keir Starmer's government of "undervaluing" their importance to local communities after a succession of tax rises When you stand back it's quite something and highlights the extraordinary dual nature of the Makerfield by-election. He we have Burnham pledging a nationwide, £350million tax cut in the middle of a local campaign while criticising a Labour government Burnham pledged to cut business rates by 20% in 2027-28 if he becomes prime minister at a cost of £100million He also said that he will abolish business rates for cafes, shops and hairdressers if he enters Number 10 in a move that would cost a further £250million He said he will fund it by increasing taxes on warehouses owned by tech giants such as Amazon and and tackling tax evasion on the high street He said: “Our high streets matter to me because they matter to the people who live here. I want to make sure that these family-owned businesses, as the heart and soul of this country, are protected and given the chance to thrive. “I am willing to be honest about where we have fallen short and say that my party has got it wrong in government. They have undervalued the contribution that these businesses make to our livelihoods and our communities.”

The political implication of this is that if Andy Burnham becomes PM, one of the first things he will be told by officials is that the economic picture is worse than thought and Britain faces huge pressures on growth, inflation and the cost of living that could last years

Eyes on the debt rule here, even if no changes in the near term. And whether additional entities get borrowing powers or exclusions as part of the devolution drive.

We are announcing today the establishment of a Greater Cambridge Development Corporation.   Working closely with local partners and communities, this Labour government will deliver high-quality, sustainable and nationally significant growth in Cambridge and its surrounding areas.

USTR just released its Section 301 investigation on forced labor, and proposes a 10% tariff on 16 jurisdictions (including the EU) and 12.5% on other investigated countries. An extensive list of products is proposed to be exempt. Feels IEEPA-tariff like. Analysis tomorrow.

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨 What policies you want is only half the story. Equally important, but ignored, is how to implement what you want to do Former NZ finance minister's 10 lessons for anyone serious about GSD and sorting out a country’s problems 🔗 substacktools.com/sharex/ds7… 🧵👇

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Andy Goldstein & Darren Bent about Arsenal & their chances of winning the Champions League 🏆

HMRC estimates that equalising capital gains tax with income tax would COST the exchequer some £6 billion a year because people will choose not to cash in their gains so no tax would be liable In this @PhilAldrick piece on Labour’s wealth tax challenge: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…