$RUNE,
$KUJI,
$RPL: Multibaggers last month that share something in common --> their fundamentals improved relentlessly over the last 18 months of bear.
Today, I want to talk about a project whose fundamentals are rock-solid but whose price has been lagging: Stader
$SD.
It has been 6 months since my thread and Stader has been killing it on every single metric, but market cap is down 10% since then.
twitter.com/GoneMultichain/sβ¦
That's set to change soon. Let's see why.
1. Stader launched ETHx 4 months ago (10th July) and has amassed a whopping 41,000 ETH since then, being the fastest growing Ethereum LST according to Defillama.
2. The TVL is up only both in dollars and USD terms.
3. More than 180 node operators have spinned a total of 1000 validators with Stader. This matters! Second biggest Node Operator army after Rocket Pool (3.3k). Decentralization will pay off handsomely this next cycle, given the concerns around the growing power of Lido, Coinbase, and Binance.
4. Stader just announced an integration with Ledger one week ago, and the staker count has gone parabolic
x.com/Ledger/status/17215436β¦
5. All this is great, but how does it relate to the SD token?
5.1
$SD has just $27m marketcap, that is :
π€ 30x smaller than RocketPool RPL,
π€ 10x smaller than Ankr (despite a much better growth),
π€ 6x smaller than Stride (despite muuuuch higher TVL) β¦ etc.
5.2 SD has been bonded non-stop since ETHx went out, and currently 5% of the circulating supply has been locked away by those 180 Node Operators.
etherscan.io/address/0x7Af47β¦
At this pace, we could see a substantial 30%-40% of all the SD bonded by Node Operators in a couple years!
5.3 With the upcoming launch of the SD Utility Pool, Node Operators will not need to bond SD any more, they can get it from βSD stakersβ and share the rewards with them. This is going to open an use case for the 99% of SD holders out there, that are not in the business of running validators.
I do expect a healthy 20-30% of the circulating supply gets locked away in the first couple quarters after launch.
5.4 SD is being hurt by a general misunderstanding that βinflation is too highβ and βFully Diluted Valuation is too highβ.
But that is just not true, circulating supply will double in the next 24 months, which is nothing crazy. The DAO and Ecosystem Funds (39m SD) will likely never enter into circulation, since DAO governance is needed to get them out and the community is firmly in the camp of reducing emissions.
6. Whatβs coming the next couple quarters?
πΏ Kelp is building rsETH, a Liquid Restaked Token (LRT) which it is set to accrue value to Stader too.
π§ EigenLayer will list ETHx in their restaking platform.
π«Έ Node Operators will not need to bond SD any more, they can get it from βSD stakersβ and share the rewards with them.
π€ According to the forum and social media channels, tokenomics may be revisited to fix the unnecessarily high FDV it has today.
7. Whatβs an acceptable price target for
$SD?
Will just share some thoughts and heuristics that make sense to me (NFA, DYOR).
1β£ If SD was to close the gap with ANKR, a 10x price increase from here, to ~8 USD, previous ATH.
2β£ If ETH was to double over the next year and Stader was to achieve 200k ETH (~40k per quarter like it has been doing so far), TVL could hit $1b again (like they once had before Terra).
3β£ If a percentage of the total supply was burned, and the supply can be kept at 80m or so, and if Stader was to regain unicorn status ($1b valuation) like in the Terra times, that would see
$SD at $1,000,0000,000 / 80,000,000 = 12.5 USD, i.e a 20x in price from here.
4β£ Assuming 4% ETH (or MATIC) staking rewards and 5% DAO commission, the revenues of Stader would be:
$1m at 500m TVL
$2m at 1b TVL
Imagine what would happen to a $27m mcap coin if they start directing a portion of those revenues to buy back the token.
Personally, will not be selling any substantial SD until it hits ATH again, but it makes sense to offload bits of 20% when it hits targets like $2, $4, $6, ie about 30, 60, and 90m mcap respectively.