A sharp analysis. This is the ground reality.
#Iran , despite being bludgeoned by the US & Israel, has come out on its own terms. It hadn't concerned an inch. India will have to redraw its relationship with the US and reassess its West Asia policy.
If details of the MoU between US and Iran as reported by Mehr news (see towards the end of the post) are true, then it is clear US has lost the war.
However, one can surmise how the understanding will be viewed differently by different countries.
1. Iran: Despite being economically weakened, its military strength degraded considerably, Tehran emerges a winner for surviving the twin onslaught from US and Israel and not conceding much. It has also gained reparations and unfreezing of its assets (figures vary). Also Hezbollah remains well entrenched in Lebanon.
2. US: President Donald Trump was desperate to end the war and cut his losses. In the end, he perhaps kept the rising gas prices and the upcoming mid-term elections in America in mind and accepted most of the Iranian demands. That he has lost face should not be in doubt.
3. Israel will live to fight another day but knives will be out for Netanyahu.
4. Qatar, not Pakistan, finally achieved the breakthrough.
5. India: Overwhelming sense of relief to begin with but in the medium term. New Delhi will have to reassess its West Asia policy, its relationship with US (more adversarial now than ever before) and diversify its energy sourcing.
Mehr News: The reported 14-point draft IranโUS memorandum :
Immediate and permanent ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon. US commitment not to interfere in Iranโs internal affairs. End of the naval blockade and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
US military withdrawal from areas surrounding Iran. Suspension of oil-related sanctions and restoration of Iranโs access to its revenues.
$300 billion in reconstruction plans/funding from the US and allies.
60 days of negotiations toward a final agreement focused on Iranโs nuclear program and broad sanctions relief.
Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons under the NPT.
No new US troops or sanctions during negotiations. Release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the negotiation period.