Monday June 15 2026 | SPX 7510 (overnight) Friday closed at 7431.46, up 37 points from Thursday on Iran peace progress. Saturday Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal was scheduled to sign Sunday with Hormuz opening immediately after. Sunday Pakistani PM Sharif confirmed both sides reached the agreement and declared permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. Formal signing ceremony scheduled Friday June 19 in Switzerland. Sunday futures gapped 73 points off Friday close. Spot 7510. Vol compression is structural this time. Parallel Shift dominated Friday's VIX decomposition at 64 percent of the 1.76 point drop. That is real money unwinding tail protection across every expiry, not borrowed mechanical drop. Futures pushed through 7500 Sunday night. Central Bank Super Week ahead with BOJ Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. ES = SPX 62.5 (ESU26) THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 7431.46 VIX: 17.68 | VIX9D: 17.26 | VVIX: pinned Daily 1SD: /- 81 (7350 to 7512) Weekly 1SD: /- 182 (7249 to 7613) ATR 5-day: /- 58.2 pts | ATR 14-day: /- 54.9 pts Dealer: SELL PRESSURE (dealers sell as price rises, creates natural resistance) 20D EMA: 7423.60 | 20D SMA: 7465.85 Friday Range: 7363.01 / 7456.40 Straddle Mon 6/15: /- 61.85 (7368 to 7492) ref 7430 Weekly Thu 6/18: /- 120 (7310 to 7550) ref 7430 ECONOMIC EVENTS, WEEK OF 6/15 Monday 6/15. Light US calendar. G7 Summit opens in Evian France. Macron said Sunday the agenda includes long-term Hormuz reopening and Lebanon support under the new US Iran agreement. Tuesday 6/16. BOJ Interest Rate Decision and Outlook Report at 3:00 AM ET. Press conference follows. Markets watching for potential hike from 0.75 percent. The Hormuz crisis has fractured global central bank consensus. ECB already hiking. BOJ may join. Wednesday 6/17. FOMC Rate Decision 2:00 PM ET. Press conference 2:30 PM ET. Warsh's first meeting as chair. PCE at 3.80 percent in April. Updated SEP and dot plot. Powell stays on the board as a dissenter. Thursday 6/18. Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET. De facto Quad Witching close since Friday is holiday. Iran peace deal signing ceremony in Switzerland. Friday 6/19. Market closed. Juneteenth holiday. No trading. THE VOL PICTURE VIX fell 1.76 points Friday from 19.44 to 17.68. The decomposition matters this time. Parallel Shift came in at 1.13, dominant at 64 percent of the move. Sticky Strike only 0.37. Call Skew 0.20. Put Skew flat. Downside Convexity barely moved. Upside Convexity 0.22. The shape tells the story. Real money unwound protection across every strike, not just the front. This is genuine sentiment change, not mechanical drop. Friday's compression sticks. The Iran peace catalyst is the why. Saturday Trump posted the deal was set to sign Sunday. Sunday Sharif confirmed both sides reached agreement and declared permanent end to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. Iran cautioned on the timing but did not deny the framework. Formal ceremony scheduled Friday June 19 in Switzerland. The draft has 14 provisions including Hormuz reopening, 24 billion in frozen Iranian assets released, and 60 days of nuclear negotiations to follow. The tail risk that was priced in for eight weeks of war got pulled out of the curve in one weekend. VVIX is pinned. Vol of vol stays suppressed. Range trades favored inside the box. But the box just expanded. Weekly straddle prices a wide 240 point range at /- 120. That is /- 1.6 percent expected weekly move. Walls are wide. Weekly 1SD says 182 points but the wall zone is collapsed at the same level. That kind of compression at the start of a macro week says levels break more often than they hold. BOJ Tuesday. Fed Wednesday. Quad Witching Thursday since Friday is closed. Iran signing same day. Premium goes to Wednesday FOMC and Thursday close. This is Warsh's first FOMC. He was sworn in May 22 replacing Powell. Powell still sits on the board as a dissenter. Warsh has called for regime change at the central bank in past speeches. His communication style is unknown for the chair seat. Markets have not priced an unknown chair making his first call against a backdrop of 3.80 percent PCE and Trump pressure for cuts. That asymmetry is the real vol risk this week. WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY SPX closed 7431.46, up 37.07 points. The rip extended Thursday's reversal. Thursday flushed 155 points then ripped 155 points back. Friday added another leg as Trump signaled the Iran deal was nearing finalization. Closed above the 20D EMA 7423.60 and within range of the 20D SMA 7465.85. Range was 93 points. High tagged 7456.40. Low caught at 7363.01. Closed in the upper third. Bulls absorbed the supply that had defined the prior two weeks. 7250 major support never tested. 7400 reclaimed cleanly. The 20D EMA flipped from overhead resistance to support beneath spot. SpaceX IPO traded for the first time Friday under SPCX. Priced at 135. Largest IPO in history. Market cap 1.78 trillion at the pricing. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with Outperform and a 190 price target. The IPO removed flow uncertainty from the tape. Iran proposed a 14-page draft framework Friday. Saturday Trump posted on Truth Social that the deal was scheduled to sign Sunday with Hormuz opening immediately after. Sunday morning Israeli strikes on Beirut hit Hezbollah targets. Trump posted those strikes should not have happened on a special day so close to peace. Sunday evening Sharif announced the deal had been reached and both sides declared permanent termination of military operations including Lebanon. Trump confirmed on Truth Social the deal is now complete. The formal signing ceremony was pushed to Friday June 19 in Switzerland from the Sunday date Trump pushed for. The slip suggests some terms remain unresolved. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MONDAY Friday closed at 7431.46 just under the 20D SMA 7465.85. Sunday futures gapped through both moving averages and through the AM straddle top. Spot 7510 sits 86 points above the EMA and 44 points above the SMA. 7500 GEX magnet is now beneath spot rather than ahead of it. Below spot the map is bracketed. 7400 is the gravitational center with stacked fuel down and put support, the biggest cluster on the entire map. Between spot and 7400 the path runs through 7475 fuel down, 7435 stacked fuel both books, 7425 at the 20D EMA support, then 7410 light resistance into the magnet. Above spot the map is fuel loaded. 7500 has massive fuel up. 7525 is the first real call wall with put support stacked. Then air pocket through 7550 weekly straddle top. 7625 sits as the ceiling, the largest call wall on the entire map. Reserved for tail risk extremes. The trade is simple to map. 7480 is the line. Overnight low. First defensive level below spot. Hold it and the 7500 magnet decides direction. Push through 7500 and 7525 is the trigger. Above 7525 opens the air pocket toward 7550 weekly straddle top. Lose 7480 and the 7400 magnet pulls. EMA at 7425 catches on the way down. Macro week setup with Central Bank Super Week. Walls break more often. Iran peace catalyst is mostly priced. Real risk for Monday is positioning into BOJ Tuesday morning Tokyo time. Watch yen for direction signals. Israel Lebanon flare up is the tail risk on the deal. Bottom line. Weekly straddle prices 7310 to 7550 as the expected range. Those are the goalposts for the week. Bulls in control above 7480. If 7500 holds as floor today, dealers chase toward 7550 weekly top. If 7480 breaks, gravity pulls to 7400 magnet then deeper toward 7310 weekly bottom. Light data calendar means positioning drives the tape. THE LEVELS Weekly straddle envelope is 7310 to 7550. Everything below targets weekly downside. Everything above targets weekly upside. Outside the envelope only at tail risk extremes. 7625 sits above as the largest call wall on the map if anything blows through. 7210 sits below as the largest put fuel down if 7300 cracks. 🔴 7550 weekly straddle top, no upside target until we push further 🔴 7535 light resistance 🔴 7525 major resistance, trigger above the air pocket 🔴 7500 massive fuel up, top magnet GEX, AM straddle top area 🟢 7480 pivot, overnight low, bullish above bearish below ⚡ 7475 fuel down 🟢 7460 light support 🟢 7445 support ⚡ 7435 strong fuel down both books 🟢 7425 support, 20D EMA 7423.60, watch area 🔴 7410 resistance, Friday open area ⚡ 7400 major magnet, biggest put support below, stacked both books ⚡ 7375 trapdoor, stacked fuel down both books 🟢 7350 major support, biggest below 7400 🟢 7310 strong support, weekly straddle bottom, downside target IF THEN 🔼 IF SPX holds 7480 and pushes through 7500 THEN 7525 is the first test, 7535 next, then 7550 weekly straddle top 7550 is the weekly upside target. Dealer chase active above the magnet. ⏸ IF SPX pins between 7480 and 7500 THEN nothing actionable, 7500 magnet holds price inside the range Light Monday data with BOJ Tuesday makes pin the base case. 🔽 IF SPX loses 7480 pivot THEN 7465 SMA first catch, 7460 next, then 7445, 7435, 7425 EMA, 7410 Watch the 7465 SMA and 7425 EMA for bounce back. Either holds and bulls grind it back to 7500. 7400 magnet pulls hard if both break. Bracket center for the week. 🔽 IF 7400 magnet breaks THEN 7375 trapdoor opens, path runs to 7350 then 7310 weekly straddle bottom 7310 is the weekly downside target. Below the map gets thin fast. THIS WEEK PREVIEW Heavy week. BOJ Tuesday. Fed Wednesday with the new dot plot. Quad Witching on Thursday because Friday is closed. Iran signing in Switzerland Thursday too. 1. Monday 6/15 - G7 Summit opens in Evian. Light US data. 2. Tuesday 6/16 - BOJ rate decision 3 AM ET with Outlook Report. 3. Wednesday 6/17 - Fed rate decision 2 PM ET with updated projections and dot plot. Warsh press conference at 2:30 PM ET, his first as chair. 4. Thursday 6/18 - Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Quad Witching close. Iran peace deal signed in Switzerland. 5. Friday 6/19 - Market closed for Juneteenth. Key levels for the week. 7550 weekly straddle top. 7500 GEX magnet. 7400 the floor that pulled all week. 7310 weekly straddle bottom. RULES 1. Spot 7510 Sunday night, sitting above the 7500 magnet that pinned price for weeks. Watch whether 7500 holds as floor at the open or flips back to overhead. 2. Macro week. Walls break 40 percent more often. Treat all levels as breakable. 3. 7480 is the trade. Hold it and 7500 to 7525 decides direction. Lose it and 7400 magnet pulls. 4. 7625 is hard rejection. Largest single resistance value on the map. Do not chase above. 5. BOJ Tuesday. Warsh first FOMC Wednesday with SEP and dot plot. 6. Thursday is the real Quad Witching close since Friday is Juneteenth holiday. 7. Iran peace catalyst mostly priced. Israel Lebanon flare up is the tail risk. Watch oil. 8. Warsh first call as chair. Unknown communication style with Powell still voting as governor. Vol re-expands fast on any surprise. 9. End of OPEX flow stacks into Thursday close not Friday this week. Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX $ES_F #SPX #ES #SPXOptions #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit

These are my model's predictions for QQQ and SPX. Although I had some doubts this morning after looking at them, I believe the broader trend is still pointing in that direction. $SPX $QQQ

$SPX - As per opening print the range for today is 7363 bottom and 7471 top, let’s see where we end up. Good luck!

SPX Friday June 12 Bulls in control above 7410. Lose it and bears get the wheel if we fail at previous day close 7395 Major wall 7535 above. Major support 7350 below SpaceX IPO trades today as SPCX at 135. Iran peace talks live Not financial advice. For education only. $SPX #SPX #OptionsTrading #SPXOptions #DayTrading #0DTE #GEX

SPX Thursday June 11 Iran war and Strait of Hormuz tape is the main thing today. Macro can override the map at any moment SpaceX IPO prices after close tonight. Trades tomorrow under SPCX. Largest IPO in history. Friday tape will not be normal 20D EMA 7425.77 and 20D SMA 7471.84 are the upside caps if bulls find footing Crack 7200 and the path opens to 7180 then 7150 Trade smaller Not financial advice. For education only. $SPX #SPX #OptionsTrading #SPXOptions #DayTrading #0DTE #GEX

$SPX - 7380 small resistance then 7400 followed by 7425. Good luck!

SPX Wednesday June 10 Pivot 7350 Wall 7435 above Major support 7300 Trapdoor 7255 Not financial advice. For education only. $SPX #SPX #OptionsTrading #SPXOptions #DayTrading #0DTE #GEX

Tuesday looking like more chop into CPI. Bears couldn't push through 7400 Monday and bulls couldn't reclaim 7470. Both sides exhausted. Need to reclaim 20D EMA and SMA to push further up. Pivot 7425. Trigger 7470. Chop 7400 to 7460. Upside. First gate is 7450 the 20D EMA. Bulls need to reclaim it. Next is 7460 the chop top which must hold for further up. Then 7470 trigger and 7480 the 20D SMA. Both need to break and hold or no upside. Fail at any gate and back into chop. Downside. Lose 7425 pivot and 7415 fuel down opens. 7400 chop bottom catches(hopefully it may try to hold in case of any flush) then 7385 Friday close area. 7375 strong support. Only if 7375 breaks look below. 7370 trapdoor biggest fuel down on map. 7350 major support catches. Caution and critical levels to reclaim: 20D EMA 7448.36 critical support. 20D SMA 7479.85 critical resistance. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #CPI #FinTwit

$SPX - Whale in the house with an IC 7395/7400 vs 7510/7515

Monday June 8 setup. Bears flushed Friday on hot NFP. Iran headline keeps oil bid into the open. Pivot 7445. Trigger 7470. Chop 7400 to 7445. 7400 the bull/bear line. Upside. Clear 7445 pivot first. Then 7470 trigger. Above 7470 the 7475/7500 fuel up accelerates toward 7515/7525 and 7540 wall. Only if 7470 cross and hold look above. Respect chop zone. Downside. Lose 7400 trapdoor opens. 7385 Friday close area catches. 7375 fuel down. Only if 7375 breaks look below. 7350 major trapdoor. 7325 mega support biggest put on map. Careful at these technical levels. 20 Day EMA 7452.84 20 Day SMA 7479.51 Whale flow notes: Bought puts. SMH 530P June 12 SMH 550P June 12 IWM 275P June 30 JPM 285P July 17 MTUM 310P July 17 Sold puts. AMD 390P July 2 NVDA 185P July 2 Read. Hedging broader market and rotation. Bullish AI leaders. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #FinTwit

NFP day. 7600 the pin gravity. Pivot 7550. Upside: 7570/75 trigger → 7585 Thursday close → 7600 where sellers step in. Only if 7600 cross and hold look for above. 7622 the ATH zone next. Downside: lose 7540 → 7530 trapdoor → 7525 catches → 7515 Thursday low. Only if 7515 breaks look for below levels. 7485 then 7475 if NFP shocks. NFP 8:30 AM ET. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #NFP #StockMarket #FinTwit

$SPX - 7570/75 seems doable based on whale position. Watch out. First resistance test at 7550/55. Not a financial advice.

Bears still in control after Wednesday's flush. 7555 the Wed close acts as resistance until reclaimed. 7565 the bullish trigger. No upside target unless we break here. Base case: chop 7515 to 7545. Pivot 7525. 7510 the strong support and bull/bear line below. Lose it and 7500 fuel down opens to 7490/85. Jobless Claims Barkin 8:30am. NFP Friday. Macro week. Trade smaller. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #StockMarket #FinTwit

Every session bringing a fresh ATH. Are we going to see another one today? Base case: chop between 7580 and 7630. Lean stays up while 7595 holds. 7625 watch area into the 7630 wall. Clear and hold and 7645/48 is the likely top. 7580 strong support and bull/bear line below. Lose it and 7555 fuel pulls into 7550. ISM Services 10am is the catalyst. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #ISM #StockMarket #FinTwit

SPX 7585 spot and pivot. Base case: stays above 7570 with chop between 7570 and 7600. Upside test 7623, biggest wall on the board. High odds of rejection at 7623/7620. 7600 first resistance. Clear it and 7610 then 7615 fuel pocket into the 7623 wall. 7570 is the massive support and bull/bear line below. Hold it and the lean stays up. JOLTs 10am the only data print today. Not financial advice. Verify all levels before trading. $SPX $ES #SPX #SPY #ES_F #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #GEX #VIX #StockMarket #FinTwit

Quick levels from the vacation. 7550 7575 7588 7603 7618 7626 7635 7641 7550 is the line to hold. 7600 is the intraday pivot. 7635/41 levels to watch on the upside. Positioning can shift later in the session. Worst case if 7550 breaks they may try 7525 or 7519 but chances are low so watch 7550 closely to hold. Good luck. $SPX #SPX #SPXOptions #0DTE #DayTrading #OptionsTrading #GEX

Taking a short break until Tuesday. Heading out on vacation so no NextPin briefs until then. Back Tuesday with levels. Trade safe.