Demographer. Former Professor of Demography at Macquarie University, Sydney. Interested in demographic trends and policy issues. Census.
Joined July 2009
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16 Oct 2025
"It is important that public discussion and policy relating to fertility levels is founded on an understanding of the interrelationships between fertility and population growth ... that considers potential effects of non-zero levels of migration"
My paper
genus.springeropen.com/artic…
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Jun 15
I predict the FIFA World Cup will be won by a country in which the TFR is below 2.07.
Children from small families do better!
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Nick Parr retweeted
Jun 13
If you need a reminder to treat official projections with healthy scepticism, check out the remarkably optimistic 2021 NZ prison population projections.
TBF they were produced "within a context of a highly cooperative justice sector and a greater focus on therapeutic approaches".
31 Mar 2022
Many trends in the justice system have changed over the last few years. Fewer criminal cases have been coming into the courts and fewer people are in prison.
Find out more about how these are projected to change in the future here: justice.govt.nz/justice-sect…
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Jun 12
Switzerland to vote on plan to cap population at 10 million bbc.in/4xr0nHK
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Jun 12
China has overtaken India as the largest source of net migration to New Zealand in the year to April - it's been almost a decade since 🇨🇳 was last on top.
Net migration from the USA has also risen over the past year and is closing in on its record high set when Covid first hit.
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Jun 2
The decline in births since peak - in 2009 - was a staggering 28%. Some signs of stabilisation in recent years.
Between 2015 and 2025 the number of births registered in Ireland has fallen by 11,784, or nearly 18%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica…
#CSOIreland #Ireland #VitalStatistics #VitalStats #Births #Deaths #Marriages #IrishBabiesNames #BoysNames #GirlsNames #BabyNames
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Jun 2
Lowest low #fertility (TFR below 1.3) countries vary widely in their fertility levels, age profiles, migration, mortality, population growth, socioeconomic development and cultures.
This nice article argues the need to keep a multidimensional perspective. niussp.org/fertility-and-rep…
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Nick Parr retweeted
Jun 1
Another population milestone in Australia, and this latest million in near record time. It was 2024 when we hit 27 million. We've doubled in the lifespan of most Gen Xers (50 years).
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Jun 1
Article presents rich survey data on reasons for actual and intended #family size.
Main reasons given by for intention to be #childless :
1. I enjoy my freedom.
2. Cost of children.
3. I prefer pets.
#3 may be understudied.
#fertility smh.com.au/national/there-s-…
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May 31
New study in @PNASNexus: While most countries became more gender egalitarian 1995-2022, global support for gender equality stagnated
Why? Higher fertility in less egalitarian populations compounded this.
This reveals a critical paradox in cultural change.
doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pg…
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May 26
Scotland has a new top name for baby girls.
268 births were registered with the name Freya in 2025.
For boys, the top name remains Noah with 318 registrations.
Get the data: bit.ly/BabyNames25NRS
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May 25
Australia has a problem with migration. The Liberals’ policy approach will do nothing to fix it theconversation.com/australi…
McDonald argues that migration policy should consider multiple population-related outcomes and should encompass temporary, as well as permanent, migration.
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May 24
Formulating policies to balance population growth with housing supply should involve inputs from trained demographers and experts on housing supply.
May 24
This week's column for @abcnews in which I explain why Angus Taylor's immigration/housing policy would not result in a cut to immigration and suggest that migration should be run by an independent body like the Reserve Bank.
abc.net.au/news/2026-05-25/h…
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May 22
Number of UK-born living outside UK 1//7/2024
1. Australia 1,107,102
2. USA 894,789
3. Canada 427,526
4. Spain 294,986
5. Ireland 293,599
6. New Zealand 254,524
7. Poland 184,964
8. France 163,042
9. Thailand 116,582
10. Italy 67,246
#demography ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa…
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Your long-weekend read: Are Americans "underbabied"? 🍼
This month, Dr. Mehmet Oz introduced a new demographic buzzword into the lexicon. PRB's Kaitlyn Patierno and @alisongemmill (@UCLAFSPH) assess whether his claim has merit. prb.org/news/are-americans-u…
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May 22
Linked data helps governments move from hunches to evidence. When researchers can safely connect data on health, education, work and housing, we learn which policies genuinely change lives. andrewleigh.com/speech_linki… #auspol
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May 21
Ireland’s population growth rate has overtaken Australia’s (1.7 vs 1.6%).
May 21
Ireland's population growth accelerated during 2024, rising to 1.7% from 1.5% over the course of 2023.
Across the EU as a whole, population rose by 0.26% in 2024 and 0.38% in 2023.
Having population growth running at 6.5 times the rate for the EU explains many of Ireland's issues, housing, healthcare capacity etc.
As most population growth is from immigration, a sensible policy would be to reduce the number of work and student visas, which account for most immigration flows.
PS: The Irish population has been overtaking those of other EU countries in recent years. The latest is Slovakia in 2024.
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NZ religious denominations, 2001. Source: Wikipedia
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May 20
Often overlooked, given the handwringing about low birth rates, is that most of Europe’s countries still have growing populations.
Apr 3
Population increased in two-thirds of EU countries from 2024 to 2025. Hungary recorded the second-largest population decline (−0.5%). Overall, the EU’s population grew by 0.3%.
#demography #population #EU #Poland #Hungary #Germany
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May 19
The Census is Australia’s national stocktake. It shapes decisions on schools, roads, hospitals and local services.
Now Australians can subscribe through myGov to get secure Census updates and a direct link to complete the form ahead of Census night 11 August. #Census2026
ministers.treasury.gov.au/mi…
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