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“Voters are making a distinction here. They support accountability, but they also believe there has to be a point where leadership changes, policies change, and taxpayers are no longer locked into paying for the past indefinitely.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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“As soon as the question becomes whether Maricopa County taxpayers should keep paying for actions from over a decade ago, voters are overwhelmingly clear. This is no longer a left-right issue — it becomes a fairness and cost issue.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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The strongest finding: 73% of voters agree that Maricopa County taxpayers should not have to continue paying for federal oversight based on actions from more than a decade ago. Nearly half (48%) strongly agree.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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The clearest consensus: 58% say MCSO oversight should be reconsidered if leadership and policies have changed.
That includes majorities of REPs, DEMs, INDs, and moderates.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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“The taxpayer cost clearly breaks through. Voters may support accountability in theory, but when they hear this has cost hundreds of millions of dollars over more than a decade, they start asking whether the current arrangement still makes sense.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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When asked to weigh accountability vs. cost:
53% say oversight has gone on too long costs too much
30% say it’s necessary regardless of time/cost
That “gone on too long” view includes:
62% of Republicans
49% of Democrats
47% of Independents
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Cost changes the equation.
Only 28% of Maricopa voters knew federal oversight has cost taxpayers hundreds of millions over the past decade. 58% were not aware.
Once cost enters the picture, voters start asking whether this still makes sense.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Initial support for continuing federal oversight is soft with 30% not sure.
Among Independents:
35% support
26% oppose
40% not sure
Translation: voters are still movable.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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“This is not an issue most voters are following closely. That matters because when voters don’t know much, the first clear explanation they hear can shape how they think about the entire issue.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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NEW AZPOP: Maricopa voters say MCSO federal oversight has gone on too long.
Just 32% have heard at least some about it.
But once voters hear the cost duration, majorities move toward reconsideration.
Read more: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Maricopa County voters are largely unfamiliar with the ongoing federal court oversight of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office — but once presented with the issue, most say the oversight should be reconsidered
noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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“Gas prices are not just a Republican issue or a Democratic issue. But in this poll, the political intensity is actually stronger among some of the voters Democrats need most — younger voters, Hispanics, parents, and moderates.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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The voters most likely to say gas prices could affect their ballot are also key statewide battleground groups.
Younger voters. Hispanics. Parents. Moderates. Independents.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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The political intensity is not evenly distributed.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say gas prices will influence their vote: 83% vs. 56%.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Gas prices may follow voters into the voting booth.
68% say gas and fuel prices are likely to influence their vote in the upcoming election.
39% say very likely.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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“Gas prices are one of the most visible ways voters feel the economy. You do not need to read an economic report to know what you paid at the pump.” - @MikePNoble
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Higher-income voters are not immune.
70% of Arizona voters making over $100k say rising gas prices have impacted their household finances.
But they are much less likely to say the impact has been severe.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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The financial strain is especially sharp among voters already feeling affordability pressure.
• Hispanics: 88% impacted
• Voters 18-29: 90%
• Parents: 87%
• Under $50k: 84%
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Gas prices are not just irritating voters — they are hitting household finances.
80% of Arizona voters say rising gas and fuel prices have impacted their household finances.
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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Concern about gas prices cuts across party lines.
Democrats: 75% very concerned
Independents: 63%
Republicans: 54%
Full report: noblepredictiveinsights.com/…
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