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Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ @Nowcast_EU

Real-time parliamentary seat projections โ€ข run by @JoshHousden (nowcast.uk) โ€ข Support us on ko-fi

Joined July 2023
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Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ@Nowcast_EU
24 Nov 2025
Countries that are covered by @Nowcast_EU projection models (24/11/2025) ๐ŸŸฉ - We try to update at least once or twice a month ๐ŸŸง - Timing of updates is subject to polling frequency New additions: ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia
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Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ retweeted
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
Jun 15
Last update before the by-elections in England and Scotland ๐Ÿ”ต Reform are flatlining around 300-325 projected seats ๐ŸŸข Greens are down from their 53 seat peak in March ๐Ÿ”ด Eyes on whether Labour will reach triple figures again for the first time since September 2025
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
Jun 15
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection โ€” June 15, 2026 โžก๏ธ RFM: 27% | 309 ( 304) ๐ŸŸฅ LAB: 18% | 79 (-332) ๐ŸŸฆ CON: 18% | 57 (-64) ๐ŸŸฉ GRN: 14% | 33 ( 29) ๐ŸŸง LDM: 12% | 81 ( 9) ๐ŸŸจ SNP: 3% | 46 ( 37) ๐Ÿ”ฒ PLC: 2% | 13 ( 9) /- vs. GE2024 ๐Ÿ”— nowcast.uk/projection
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia | Legislative Election Nowcast Scenario: 2025 electoral coalitions ๐ŸŸฆ ANO: 32% | 75 (-5) ๐ŸŸฉ SPOLU: 21% | 47 (-5) ๐ŸŸช STAN: 15% | 34 ( 12) โฌ› Pirรกti: 9% | 19 ( 1) ๐ŸŸซ SPD : 8% | 18 ( 3) #๏ธโƒฃ AUTO: 5% | 7 (-6) /- vs. 2025 election
Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ@Nowcast_EU
Jun 15
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 15, 2026 ๐ŸŸฆ ANO: 32% | 84 ( 4) ๐ŸŸช STAN: 15% | 37 ( 15) โ†”๏ธ ODS: 15% | 37 ( 10)* โฌ› Pirรกti: 8% | 20 ( 2) ๐ŸŸซ SPD: 7% | 14 (-1) #๏ธโƒฃ AUTO: 5% | 8 (-5) โ€” ๐ŸŸจ KDU: 3% | 0 (-16)* ๐ŸŸช TOP: 3% | 0 (-9)* /- vs. 2025 election *Ex-SPOLU
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 15, 2026 ๐ŸŸฆ ANO: 32% | 84 ( 4) ๐ŸŸช STAN: 15% | 37 ( 15) โ†”๏ธ ODS: 15% | 37 ( 10)* โฌ› Pirรกti: 8% | 20 ( 2) ๐ŸŸซ SPD: 7% | 14 (-1) #๏ธโƒฃ AUTO: 5% | 8 (-5) โ€” ๐ŸŸจ KDU: 3% | 0 (-16)* ๐ŸŸช TOP: 3% | 0 (-9)* /- vs. 2025 election *Ex-SPOLU
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๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 13, 2026 ๐ŸŸฅ A: 21% | 37 (-1) ๐ŸŸช F: 13% | 23 ( 3) ๐ŸŸจ O: 12% | 20 ( 4) ๐ŸŸฆ V: 10% | 17 (-1) โ„น๏ธ I: 10% | 17 ( 1) ๐ŸŸฉ C: 8% | 14 ( 1) ๐ŸŸง ร˜: 7% | 13 ( 2) ๐ŸŸช M: 6% | 11 (-3) ๐ŸŸช B: 6% | 10 (=) ... /- vs. 2026 election
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Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ retweeted
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
Jun 13
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง | Nowcast UK - State of the Cabinet* June 13, 2026 16 cabinet ministers risk losing their seat if an election was held today * At time of posting
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๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 13, 2026 ๐ŸŸฅ PRO: 25 ( 5) ๐ŸŸฆ VVD: 20 (-2) โฌ› PVV: 19 (-7) ๐ŸŸฉ D66: 19 (-7) ๐ŸŸฉ CDA: 15 (-3) โฌ› JA21: 14 ( 5) ๐ŸŸซ FvD: 12 ( 5) ... /- vs. 2025 election
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy | Legislative Election polling averages โ€” June 12, 2026 ๐ŸŸฆ FdI: 28.2% (-0.4) ๐ŸŸฅ PD: 21.8% (-0.3) ๐ŸŸจ M5S: 12.9% ( 0.4) โžก๏ธ Forza: 7.9% (-0.2) ๐ŸŸฉ Lega: 6.9% (-0.2) ๐ŸŸช AVS: 6.5% (=) โฌ› FN: 4.4% ( 0.9) โ€” *๏ธโƒฃ Az: 2.9% (-0.1) /- vs. April 30
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๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 10, 2026 โžก๏ธ ND: 30% | 118 (-40) ๐ŸŸช ELAS: 16% | 47 (NEW) ๐ŸŸฉ PASOK: 12% | 40 ( 8) ๐ŸŸจ ELPIDA: 10% | 29 (NEW) *๏ธโƒฃ EL: 8% | 24 ( 12) ๐ŸŸฅ KKE: 7% | 19 (-2) ๐ŸŸช PE: 4% | 13 ( 5) ๐ŸŸฆ FL: 4% | 10 ( 10) โ€” /- vs. 2023 election
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๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update โ€” June 8, 2026 โžก๏ธ AfD: 28% | 202 ( 2) โฌ› Union: 22% | 160 (-3) ๐ŸŸฉ GRN: 14% | 103 ( 4) ๐ŸŸฅ SPD: 12% | 87 (-2) ๐ŸŸช Linke: 11% | 77 (-1) โ€” ๐ŸŸจ FDP: 3.9% | 0 ๐ŸŸช BSW: 2.9% | 0 /- vs. May 23
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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria | Legislative Election polling averages โ€” June 6, 2026 โฌ› FPร–: 37.3% ( 8.4) ๐ŸŸฆ ร–VP: 20.3% (-6.0) ๐ŸŸฅ SPร–: 17.2% (-3.9) ๐ŸŸฉ GRN: 11.8% ( 3.6) ๐ŸŸช NEOS: 7.7% (-1.4) โ€” ๐ŸŸซ KPร–: 3.4% ( 1.0) /- vs. 2024 election
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” June 3, 2026 *๏ธโƒฃ Isam: 26% | 28 ( 1) ๐ŸŸฉ Kesk: 22% | 24 (-1) ๐ŸŸฅ SDE: 15% | 16 (=) ๐ŸŸฆ EKRE: 14% | 15 ( 3) ๐ŸŸจ Refm: 12% | 12 (-1) ๐ŸŸง Parem: 6% | 6 (-2) โ€” โฌ› E200: 2% | 0 (=) ๐ŸŸฉ EER: 1% | 0 (=) /- vs. May 2
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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland | Legislative Election polling averages โ€” June 3, 2026 ๐ŸŸง KO: 34.2% ( 0.3) ๐ŸŸฆ PiS: 25.5% (-0.6) โฌ› Kon: 13.1% ( 0.7) ๐ŸŸซ KKP: 8.7% ( 0.6) ๐ŸŸฅ Lew: 7.1% (-0.2) โ€” ๐ŸŸช Raz: 3.5% (-1.0) ๐ŸŸฉ PSL: 3.3% (=) ๐ŸŸจ PL50: 2.0% ( 0.2) /- vs. May 3
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Nowcast EU ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ retweeted
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
May 30
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection โ€” May 30, 2026 โžก๏ธ RFM: 26% | 307 ( 302) ๐ŸŸฅ LAB: 19% | 77 (-334) ๐ŸŸฆ CON: 18% | 57 (-64) ๐ŸŸฉ GRN: 14% | 37 ( 33) ๐ŸŸง LDM: 12% | 81 ( 9) ๐ŸŸจ SNP: 3% | 46 ( 37) ๐Ÿ”ฒ PLC: 2% | 13 ( 9) /- vs. GE2024 ๐Ÿ”— nowcast.uk/projection
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” May 30, 2026 ๐ŸŸฅ S: 32% | 118 ( 11) ๐ŸŸจ SD: 20% | 72 (-1) โžก๏ธ M: 18% | 64 (-4) ๐ŸŸช V: 8% | 29 ( 5) ๐ŸŸฉ MP: 7% | 25 ( 7) ๐Ÿ”ฒ C: 6% | 22 (-2) โฌ› KD: 5% | 19 (=) โ€” ๐ŸŸฆ L: 2% | 0 (-16) /- vs. 2022 election
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๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria | Seat projection, based on Market Links polling โ€” May 29, 2026 ๐ŸŸฉ PB: 46% | 128 (-3) ๐ŸŸฆ GERB: 16% | 43 ( 4) ๐ŸŸจ PPDB: 14% | 38 ( 1) โžก๏ธ DPS: 7% | 19 (-2) ๐ŸŸซ Vazr: 4% | 12 (=) /- vs. 2026 election
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy | Nowcast seat projection under the proposed 'Stabilicum' system [CDX FN coalition] ๐ŸŸฆ CDX: 48.1% | 225 seats ๐ŸŸฅ CSX: 45.2% | 159 ๐ŸŸฉ Az: 3.2% | 11 [CDX / FN separated] ๐ŸŸฅ CSX: 45.2% | 224 ๐ŸŸฆ CDX: 44.2% | 146 โฌ› FN: 3.9% | 13 ๐ŸŸฉ Az: 3.2% | 11 โš–๏ธ Majority = 201
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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” May 26, 2026 ๐ŸŸฅ SDP: 24% | 54 (-1) ๐ŸŸฆ KOK: 18% | 36 (=) ๐ŸŸฉ Kesk: 14% | 29 (-1) ๐ŸŸจ PeS: 14% | 29 (=) ๐ŸŸช VAS: 11% | 21 (=) ๐Ÿ”ฒ Vihr: 9% | 18 ( 1) ๐ŸŸจ SFP: 4% | 7 (-1) โžก๏ธ KD: 4% | 4 ( 1) ๐ŸŸช LIIK: 2% | 1 ( 1) ... /- vs. April 25
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ Spain | Legislative Election Nowcast update โ€” May 23, 2026 ๐ŸŸฆ PP: 32% | 135 ( 1) ๐ŸŸฅ PSOE: 28% | 114 (-1) ๐ŸŸฉ Vox: 18% | 62 (-1) ๐ŸŸช Sumar: 6% | 8 ๐ŸŸช Podem: 3% | 2 | ๐ŸŸง ERC: 1.8% | 7 #๏ธโƒฃ JxC: 1.5% | 6 ๐ŸŸฉ EhB: 1.3% | 6 ... /- vs. April 25
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๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update โ€” May 23, 2026 โžก๏ธ AfD: 28% | 200 ( 13) โฌ› Union: 23% | 163 (-12) ๐ŸŸฉ GRN: 14% | 99 ( 2) ๐ŸŸฅ SPD: 12% | 89 (-5) ๐ŸŸช Linke: 11% | 78 ( 2) โ€” ๐ŸŸจ FDP: 3.7% | 0 ๐ŸŸช BSW: 3.0% | 0 /- vs. April 22
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๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal | Seat projection, based on Aximage polling โ€” May 22, 2026 ๐ŸŸช PS: 33% | 88 ( 30) โฌ› CH: 24% | 62 ( 2) ๐ŸŸง AD: 23% | 59 (-32) โ„น๏ธ PIL: 6% | 11 ( 2) ๐ŸŸจ LIV: 5% | 7 ( 1) ๐ŸŸฅ CDU: 2% | 2 (-1) โ€” ๐ŸŸฉ PAN: 1% | 0 (-1) ๐ŸŸซ Bloc: 1% | 0 (-1) /- vs. 2025 election
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