Sorry not tweeting much.
nutstuff.co.uk sign up for a Black Friday deal! BUT this is worthy of a tweet..
Cardiol Therapeutics / CRDL US : The Two-Year Buy Case.
Why Nutstuff stayed in the trade and why the risk/reward is now better than at any point since 2023.
For more than two years Cardiol has been the quintessential Nutstuff position: unfashionable, under-owned, scientifically coherent, and completely mispriced. Through 2023–24 the market dismissed Cardiol as “a cannabidiol story” and priced it accordingly as if it were yet another wellness derivative. But that was always the misunderstanding. Cardiol was never about cannabis; it was about cardiac anti-inflammatory biology, and the company now has two human datasets proving that point. The new ARCHER read-out, a statistically significant reduction in left-ventricular mass of –9.2 g (p=0.0117), supported by coherent improvements across extracellular volume, intracellular volume, atrial size and ventricular filling is the moment the thesis crystallises. This is structural remodelling in human myocarditis, a feat achieved by only a microscopic handful of small-cap biotechs in the last decade. It confirms what anyone who has held the stock for two years already believed: the mechanism works in heart tissue, not just in symptomatic pericarditis. Importantly, owning Cardiol through the grind meant watching the company do the one thing retail biotechs almost never do: run clean studies with clean safety, build a methodical clinical stack, and preserve balance-sheet runway into 3Q27 even while market cap fell towards $100m. The HCW note just published ( I have!) makes the point explicitly: the market is assigning “little to no value” to ARCHER despite the fact it de-risks recurrent pericarditis, upgrades confidence in CRD-38, and gives Cardiol a “translational bridge” into the heart-failure arena where LV mass is a validated prognostic marker . If you own Cardiol, this is precisely the moment you were waiting for. And CRD-38 is where the multi-bagger lives. The injectable formulation is built for HFpEF, a multi-billion market starved of effective anti-inflammatory solutions, dominated by majors who would rather partner or acquire than spend ten years building a mechanistic competitor from basic research. ARCHER’s structural data is the currency those majors require. The biology is now contiguous across myocarditis, pericarditis, cardiomyopathies and the inflammatory component of HFpEF. Few sub-$200 million companies ever get this far. Two years of owning Cardiol has taught me one key lesson: the market waits for forced proof not stories, not mechanisms, not animal data but visible, MRI-confirmed remodelling of human heart tissue. Cardiol now has that. At $1 the stock trades below cash-adjusted rNPV, below any rational valuation for a company with two validated cardiac signals, and far below HCW’s and likely others’ $9 target, which itself uses conservative probabilities (20% myocarditis, 10% heart failure) and a 13.4% WACC . It is as asymmetric a setup as exists in small-cap biotech: limited downside after two years of derating, but explosive optionality if CRD-38 enters partnered development in HF. In short: holding Cardiol for two years was the price of admission. ARCHER is the payoff. The roadmap is now industrial rather than speculative, the mechanism is validated, and the valuation is absurd relative to the platform. If you liked it at $2 in 2023, you should love it at $1 with structural cardiac MRI data in hand. Cardiol is finally what we always said it was: a real cardiology company trading at a cosmetic-product valuation!