Class of 2017 | My analysis is supported by @Binance | Analyst at Bitcoin Live | I help you stay convicted through volatility using data @ OCC Newsletter ↓
Joined August 2021
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14 Nov 2022
If you remove #Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 10 years, the percent of the supply in profit has recently reached all-time lows.
32.73% of the supply is sitting in profit, lower than all prior bear markets.
If bottoms occur during max pain, we are certainly there/close to it.
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Funding on @binance flipped negative at the bottom.
First time in 3 weeks funding has turned negative.
Expect a continued uptrend should funding stay on that side of the coin.
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Normal, cyclical behavior for Bitcoin.
No, it’s not dead.
Yes, there will be brighter days.
Best advice I give to anyone going through their first market like this is to touch grass. I certainly have been.
More thoughts in a write up later this week.
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Bulls flinched. Now we wait to see where this finds support.
May 19
Bitcoin is compressing around multiple key on-chain levels.
Bulls want to see $75K hold.
Bears want to see price under $81K.
A market in equilibrium. Who will flinch first?
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May 19
Bitcoin is compressing around multiple key on-chain levels.
Bulls want to see $75K hold.
Bears want to see price under $81K.
A market in equilibrium. Who will flinch first?
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May 18
Bitcoin is now BELOW the STHCB, which sits at $78.3K.
Weakness here shows a lack of follow through from the bulls. The 128DMA at $75.2K is the next point of interest.
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May 14
Bitcoin's price has dropped below the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis during all prior bear markets.
Currently, that level is at $48.6K and has not been reached yet.
Do you think BTC hits this level before reaching $100K again?
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May 14
This tight Bitcoin range keeps tightening. We will have an answer soon.
$75K - $82K is mostly noise. Movement outside of this range is when the signal comes.
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May 13
Bitcoin bulls will want price to stay above $78.5K (the STHCB)
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May 12
Bitcoin's Funding Rates hit positive for a 3rd day in a row on Binance for the first time in over a month.
The move out of the $60Ks and into the low $80Ks was during an environment of mostly negative funding.
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May 11
The longer Bitcoin stays above $78K, the more likely 6 digit BTC becomes...
Strong confluence around $78K with the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sitting at that level.
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Bitcoin was rejected at the ETF Cost Basis, currently sitting at $82.1K, after being below it since January ‘26.
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This rally above the short-term holder cost basis has been impressive and legitimate in my eyes due to funding being negative 🔴on Binance the entire time.
Funding has shifted positive 🟢over the last two days.
Possible weakness ahead for BTC if funding keeps leaning positive.
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BTC broke above the STHCB after being below it since (!) October 2025.
If Bitcoin can hold $78.5K over the next couple of days, then it's ready to rip higher.
All that matters for Bitcoin is the next test at the STHCB, currently at $78.7K.
Everything else is noise.
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All that matters for Bitcoin is the next test at the STHCB, currently at $78.7K.
Everything else is noise.
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Apr 27
Second rejection at the STH cost basis (now $78.8K).
Third time's a charm for Bitcoin?
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Apr 24
Bitcoin failed to clear and hold the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis yesterday ($79.4K).
This tells us that there is still fear among Bitcoin's most reactive cohort.
Clearing this level is imperative.
Continued rejection = look out below.
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Apr 22
Bitcoin is rallying on deep negative funding on Binance.
I can't find words to express how bullish that is.
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Apr 22
X is filled with noise. I haven't been posting lately because it's all a range until Bitcoin clears and holds the True Market Mean (blue) at $78.2K.
Well folks, BTC has just cleared it.
Let's see if it holds and if the next run is just beginning.
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On-Chain College retweeted
Apr 13
2 days of deep negative funding on Binance and we're seeing a pop in Bitcoin's price today.
Getting a glimpse into the psychology of leverage traders is one of the best counter indicators out there.
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