₿itcoin & Crypto Data Analysis 🧠
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What’s more likely from here?
38%
$40K
62%
$100K
80 votes • 8 hours
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One of the reasons this market feels so directionless is because we’re stuck between two major cost basis clusters.
The deep value zone sits around $49K-$54K.
The fair value and participant cost basis cluster sits around $73K-$93K.
We’re currently in the gap between them.
No man’s land.
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Jun 12
Most backtests are built to look good.
The Strategy Lab is built to see what survives real costs, delayed signals, bad luck and slightly wrong parameters.
It is live for ALL subscribers this weekend only. After that, it becomes Premium exclusive.
Open it, take the tour, then try to break our models.
onchainmind.io/studio?indica…
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Jun 12
MSTR’s mNAV has collapsed 22% over the past month and now sits at just 0.76x.
At current prices, the market is effectively saying that 845,256 BTC inside a corporate wrapper is worth less than the Bitcoin itself.
Historically, these have been very interesting moments.
Fear changes valuations faster than fundamentals.
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Jun 11
The URPD is one of the most underrated tools in Bitcoin.
It shows where the supply is sitting on-chain, where holders are defending, and where resistance is likely to appear.
The low $60,000 region matters because it is one of the biggest supply clusters in the entire Bitcoin network.
Hundreds of thousands of BTC last moved around this zone.
That makes it a major psychological battlefield.
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Jun 11
Bitcoin cash extraction has collapsed.
At the cycle peak, realised profit extraction hit over $55B on a 30-day basis.
Today, it is closer to $3B. That is an almost 10x drop in profit-taking,
Historically, that kind of collapse is exactly what you want to see in accumulation territory.
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Jun 10
Long-term holder supply in loss is now around 41%.
That is extremely high for this stage of Bitcoin’s maturity.
In 2015, the bottom needed over 50% of LTH supply in loss.
In 2019, around 45%.
In 2022, just over 42%.
The threshold is falling as Bitcoin matures.
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Jun 10
Supply in loss has surged from around 34% to over 50% in roughly 1 month.
That is a violent expansion in unrealised losses and exactly the type of structure that appears near capitulation floors.
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Jun 10
Bitcoin spends roughly 93% of its history with more than half the supply in profit.
Currently, only 50% of supply is in profit, meaning we are in the bottom 7% of all historical readings.
These are not normal market conditions.
They are rare, uncomfortable, high-stress accumulation zones.
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On-Chain Mind retweeted
Jun 9
Bitcoin’s supply in loss just surged from 34% to over 50% in a single month.
That 50/50 split has marked every major bear market bottom since 2010.
The question isn’t whether we’re in capitulation, it’s whether the floor holds or we get one final flush👇🏼
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Jun 9
Bitcoin is trading roughly 18% below the True Market Mean.
Markets spend very little time offering discounts to fair value.
For me, this is prime DCA territory.
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On-Chain Mind retweeted
Jun 8
Bitcoin’s strongest historical support isn’t a single line.
It’s when multiple cost basis models begin stacking on top of each other.
Right now, the entire deep value cluster sits in a narrow $49K-$54K range.
That’s one of the tightest convergences we’ve seen this cycle.
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Jun 8
The average investor wants certainty.
The market rewards probability.
That’s why investing in a bear market is so psychologically difficult.
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Jun 8
This was one of our most popular videos in recent history. So here it is again, for anyone who missed it
Jun 2
Bitcoin spends 96% of its life below its all-time high.
Almost the entire return is made in the other 4%, in short violent bursts most holders never wait around for.
I explore every drawdown in Bitcoin’s history, and what the data says actually happens next👇🏼
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Jun 7
The most expensive mistake in investing is confusing volatility with risk.
Bitcoin is volatile.
That doesn’t automatically make it risky.
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Jun 7
The strange thing about this Bitcoin drop is not the size of the move.
It is how quiet it has been.
Despite a confirmed downtrend, volatility is only sitting around the 15th percentile of readings over the past 7 years.
Low volatility inside a bearish trend is not particularly comforting. Sometimes it is stored energy.
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Jun 6
Bitcoin’s Adaptive Trend model flipped bearish at ~$80k.
That matters because price has not only lost the short-term holder realised price, the 200D MA, but the broader trend model is now confirming the same message.
While it remains red, I have to assume downside continuation is the base case.
I’ll change my mind when the model changes its mind.
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