When looking at the dominance of the American F-35 in European hangars, continental critics often blame individual nations for choosing foreign hardware over European options.
The uncomfortable reality is that Europe has nobody to blame but itself, and by completely failing to produce an indigenous 5th generation fighter, it left frontline nations with no choice.
Smaller countries directly bordering Russia cannot afford to gamble on a deficit in the skies. When nations like Finland, with a population of just 5,6 million, procure a fighter fleet, those airframes must remain qualitatively superior to Russia’s for decades.
The F-35 was quite literally the only option on the market guaranteed to maintain a decisive edge over Moscow and Beijing well into the mid-century. Current European 4th generation platforms like the Rafale or Gripen are already facing a narrowing operational advantage today, and their long-term development potential is heavily capped, leaving them poorly equipped for the highly contested airspace of the 2040s and 2050s.
Furthermore, relying on European alternatives introduces severe sovereign risks. None of the current continental jets outside of the French Rafale are ITAR-free, which means Washington still holds a defense export veto over them. Turning fully to France is an equally massive gamble, given Paris’ history of low aid to Ukraine and the looming domestic political instability that threatens to disrupt its defense alignment after 2027.
The industrial outlook remains equally bleak. Massive capital and collective expertise are needed to build a viable 6th generation platform, yet the ending of the Franco-German FCAS program proves Europe is still paralyzed by industrial infighting.
While the British-Italian-Japanese program shows some promise, it is not a purely European endeavor. Without immediate, unified, and unprecedented financial mobilization, the United States is poised to entirely outpace the continent on the 6th generation, leaving a fragmented Europe trapped in a dependency loop of its own making