Evidence-based financial education and fun stats. Part research, part ramblings. Tweets ≠ advice. YouTube vids at youtube.com/optimizedportfol…

Joined September 2020
1,192 Photos and videos
$BOXX after-tax return calculator is live to compare against a plain T-bills fund like $SGOV for specific tax rates. Obvious disclaimer: Rough estimate. Hypothetical results. Not tax advice or investment advice. Consult your CPA and CFP®. optimizedportfolio.com/boxx-…
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Reminder: For the average person, a taxable brokerage account is NOT the most important account, and most of the claims in this video are patently false and/or strawman nonsense.
The most important account in your personal finances is your taxable brokerage account, here’s why..
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Optimized Portfolio | John Williamson, APMA® retweeted
The dangerous retirement dividend myth I keep hearing: “If my portfolio yields 4–5%, I’m set for life. I can just live off the dividends/interest.” Let me explain why this is NOT the right way to think about generating income from your portfolio Dividend yield and bond yield have almost nothing to do with how much you can safely spend in retirement. Safe Withdrawal Rate (the amount you can pull out every year for 30 years without running out of money) is driven by TOTAL RETURN, not yield. We’ve watched this play out in real time: - YieldMax / covered-call ETFs advertising 12–15% “yields” → share prices get crushed, total return ends up low or negative - High-dividend “aristocrats” or REITs that pay 6–8% → price drops 30–50% in a bear market and never fully recovers Even if the dividend check hits your account every month like clockwork, your principal can (and often does) evaporate underneath you, leading to a shortfall in your retirement income needs What actually determines how much income you can generate for the rest of your life: 1. Asset allocation (stocks vs bonds vs cash) 2. Sequence-of-returns risk & volatility 3. Your spending flexibility in bad years 4. Time horizon/longevity 5. Total return (price appreciation dividends/interest), not just the yield A portfolio can have: - 0% yield (pure growth stocks or zero-coupon bonds) → perfectly safe 4% withdrawal - 8% yield (high-dividend or option strategies) → still blows up at 4% withdrawal Yield feels safe. Total return is safe. Stop chasing yield. Start focusing on sustainable total return and withdrawal rules (3–4% rule, guardrails, bucket strategy, etc.). Your future self will thank you.
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My reaction to the SpaceX IPO - $SPCX - since I already own total market index funds:

ALT Bored Bugs Bunny GIF by MOODMAN

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His "...and get a little lucky" is doing the heavy lifting here. At a 7% annualized return, $3 would need 66 years to turn into $300. I think like this in terms of future value too, but it's also important to remember inflation. At 3% inflation, that $300 is about $43 today.
Investor Chris Camillo reveals a $3 coffee from Starbucks is actually worth $300 if invested aggressively with a little luck “Are you willing to skip the coffee at Starbucks for $300?”
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Once again, no it isn't. You clearly do not understand what that phrase does and does not mean.
Past performance is not indicative of future results..for individual stocks. For diversified index funds and ETFs it absolutely is. Entire companies (Vanguard), all our nation’s retirement plans, and every bit of advice for the margin in your budget have been built on this concept.
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To the people who say 401k's are a "scam."
If you say 401k's are a scam, I'm immediately ignoring everything else you say.
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Reminder that paying less in taxes is better than paying more money than paying more in taxes, and most plan to live past age 60. This should be axiomatic.
The only account you need to become financially independent before 60 years old is a taxable brokerage account. Any other recommendation, like 401ks, IRAs, and mega giga sigma backdoor Roth IRAs are extreme cope and will negatively impact your personal finances.
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With a covered call fund like $JEPQ or $GPIQ during a drawdown event, you've just sold the upside you need to recover for the purported benefit of falling slightly less. Inefficiency in both directions illustrated.
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Despite seeing amateur finfluencers' claims to the contrary, covered call options do not provide improved efficiency or diversification for an equities portfolio.
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Faulty, dangerous assumptions, inferences, and implications here. Plainly, the idea that complex, high-fee, high-yield products expedite retirement is false. I think OP knows this. I wish people would stop perpetuating this nonsense. Novices take it at face value.
"Retire In 5" Portfolio🏖️ Is retire at 65 dead? $GIAX (33.3%) $BLOX (33.3%) $TOPW (33.3%) Investing $250/wk with DRIP (~35.8% yield): 💥Yr 5 Balance: $180,974 💸Yr 5 Income: $64,788/yr ⚠️Flat NAV assumed. Risk of NAV decay. NFA 📷Powered by High Yield📈 results by Gemini
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"Just buy index funds." $XLV- S&P Health Care Select Sector Index $HNDL - Nasdaq 7HANDL Base Index $VXX - S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index Still gotta pick the right index funds.
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This is objectively terrible advice. Reminders: 1. Stocks are not "safe." 2. Total mkt index funds are not "diworsification." You'll outperform most investors. 3. Nearly impossible to consistently identify "winners." 4. Single company risk is idiosyncratic. Buy the haystack.
"Buy an index fund and wait!" Funds like $AOA & $VOO are safe, but having hundreds of holdings is "diworsification." Alone, it won't compound fast enough for the average person. Buy the haystack, dilute the winners. Target some needles, not just the haystack.
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No it's not.
Past performance is not indicative of future results..for individual stocks For diversified ETFs like $SCHD $SPY $VOO $FXAIX it 100% is That’s why everyone pushes so hard to invest in the first place
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Interest from a savings account.
Name a more reliable income stream than dividends from dividend growth ETFs like $SCHD and $DGRO So funny how people think investing in dividend ETFs is riskier than their W2 job
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Love when you reply to some random topic and it blows up and you see the interesting characters who come out of the woodwork whom you've avoided inside your FinTwit bubble.
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What happened to cracking down on bots?
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This is actually quite negotiable. News flash: Most people don't want to own a business or have a side hustle. "Hustle culture" à la grifters like Alex Hormozi and Grant Cardone is so annoying.
This is non-negotiable if you work a W2 corporate job: you need a side hustle or business and an investment portfolio of stocks, real estate, and private businesses.
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Take a drink every time you see a dividend bro mention "NAV erosion" when discussing a covered call fund. I think they don't even understand what they're talking about or the broader context or implications of that term.
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