π Friday NIFTY Analysis & Levels to Watch for Monday
Initiative buyers opened NIFTY outside 11th June Value, tested the 5th June PPOC (a mechanical reference), and then gave a classic Bearish Open Test Drive straight into the 10th June Value Area. Once accepted inside, the auction had little trouble covering the entire 10th June Value Area.
πΉ The real story unfolded at the 10th June VAL.
Morning initiative buyers stepped in aggressively and defended at VAL. That defense triggered an IB High breakout, acceptance into the 5th June Value Area, and eventually a complete reversal and covering of that value as well.
πΉ By the close, NIFTY had printed a Neutral Extreme Day, closed at the highs, and cleaned up all the unfinished value left behind since 1st June.
What does this mean for Monday?
π Neutral Extreme Days often have a tendency to open opposite to the close. So a gap-down or weak open below Friday's close wouldn't be unusual.
However, buyers clearly won the auction into the close. If that tendency plays out, the market may first attempt to repair Friday's poor high before deciding where the next auction should take place.
π― Upside references: 23800β23880 FUT
If we get a gap-up open, I wouldn't be in a hurry to chase longs.
β οΈ Friday left behind plenty of single prints, and single prints are unfinished business until proven otherwise. Responsive sellers could easily lean against those areas and push price back into the single-print zone (blue bands), potentially towards 23600 FUT or even lower.
π The one thing that catches my attention is the PPOC.
While price migrated higher throughout Friday's session, the PPOC barely moved. Value didn't exactly follow price higher. To me, that's a sign that the move was driven more by price exploration than genuine value migration.
In Market Profile terms, the market successfully advertised higher prices, but I'm not yet convinced value has fully accepted them.
βοΈ My base case is some balancing around these levels before the next meaningful directional move. A continuation higher is certainly possible, but so is a rotation back towards the PPOCs.
π‘ Friday moved price. Monday will tell us whether value wants to follow.