Stats/ML/Quant
Joined March 2011
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- Following 3,602
- Followers 11,868
- Likes 29,385
4,311 Photos and videos
Jun 13
Riset applied statistics sambil ngantor daerah Lembang enak kayaknya.
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Jun 13
Antara saya dan @bravocado lah kira-kira. Hahaha
Jun 12
All of my smartest friends are either
> doubling down on AI and starting companies to create generational wealth as soon as possible
> taking their money to buy piece of land in the middle of nowhere and walking away from society as a whole
Nothing in between
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Jun 12
One agentic workflow now does 1,000 hours of hedge fund analyst work.
Aakarsh Ramchandi founded the data team @ Third Point, built screening engines @ FactSet, & now builds agentic research tools @ RavenPack.
"There's gonna be a full convergence of quant and qual. Most discretionary analysts I know are somewhere in their Claude journey — and the quants are going the other way around."
We cover:
- Year one at Third Point: onboarding 100 data sets with a team of 4 — & why they kept point-in-time copies of every vendor feed to catch panels that silently changed overnight
- The Dan Loeb pitch story — a 45-page deck, six weeks of work, he stops at page 26, asks one question, & the whole thesis breaks
- "Kind but not nice" — the zero-politics office where everyone gets corrected by elite people daily
- Why analysts don't want your forecast — they want facts in Excel, red-green-blue, formatted their way
- Hedging a concentrated activist book with alt-data short baskets built from a 400-500 factor model
- Why Nvidia broke the Barra model — & building custom semiconductor factors instead
- The agentic earnings preview: 8-9 step workflows, 35M tokens per run, ~1,000 hours of analyst work encoded
- Self-improving loops — agents reviewing their own last 10 traces & patching their mistakes
- The WorldQuant hackathon: 7,000 quants turning unstructured text into 35M unique time series
Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(01:38) Founding Third Point's data team in 2017
(03:55) Six months building point-in-time data infrastructure
(06:20) How an event-driven fund actually uses alt data
(12:40) Team structure & the original forward deployed engineer
(17:10) Nobody wants your forecast — just give it to them in Excel
(19:35) Measuring signals: direction, point estimates & confidence intervals
(24:05) Working with Dan Loeb — the elite bullshit detector
(26:05) The page-26 "Why?" story
(28:55) 5AM Saturdays & discipline that compounds
(32:05) Kind but not nice: the zero-politics office
(33:55) How an activist creates alpha by re-running the business
(43:10) Hedging the book with alt-data short baskets
(50:40) Why Nvidia broke standard factor models
(56:25) From search to RAG to agents
(1:04:20) Opus 4.5 changes the game: 70% → 90% accuracy
(1:11:00) Anatomy of an agentic earnings preview — 35M tokens per run
(1:17:20) Ambient agents: the always-on Jarvis
(1:19:40) Self-improving loops & encoded judgment
(1:20:20) Finance in 10 years: the full convergence of quant & qual
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20.000 ekor sapi ga pake APBN
Mulawarman 1 : Wowok 0
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Jun 12
Terima kasih dan semoga semua selamat sehat walafiat sampai rumah.
Jun 12
🚨 AKSI SEDANG BERLANGSUNG 🚨
SALING JAGA DAN TETAP SATU KOMANDO!
via BEM UI
cc @BudiBukanIntel
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Telegram founder Pavel Durov on what separates A Players from B Players
“I can recall a few instances in my career where firing an engineer actually resulted in an increase in productivity,” Telegram founder Pavel Durov begins.
He gives an example of two Android engineers building an app that are having a hard time hitting deadlines:
“You think, ‘I probably have to hire a third engineer.’ But then you notice that one of [the engineers] is really weird — falling behind schedule, complaining, not assuming responsibility — and you ask, ‘What if I just fired this person?’ Then you fire this person, and in a few weeks you realize you never needed a third engineer. The problem was this guy who created more issues and problems than he solved. It’s so counterintuitive because in developing tech projects, you tend to think that you just throw more people into something and things get solved miraculously.”
Pavel continues:
“The other thing that people don’t realize is how demotivating working with a B Player is. Everyone can tell if the other engineer they’re working with is really competent. If the person is asking the wrong questions and they keep lagging behind, at a certain point if you’re an A Player, you get get this dissatisfaction and feeling that you are not able to realize your full potential and accomplish what you’re really meant to accomplish because of this person working next to you (or pretending to work next to you).”
Pavel reflects on what it is exactly that separates these B Players from A Players:
“In some cases it’s not because the person is lazy . . . It’s not about experience. More often it’s about natural ability and persistence. In 90% of cases, it’s just the inability to focus on one task for an extended period of time. Not everybody has this ability. So for people who do have this ability, it’s an insult to work alongside someone who is distracted and cannot go deep in the projects that they’re responsible for.”
Source: @lexfridman (Sep 2025)
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Jun 4
Enak nih naik gunung, terus tidur di bawah pohon, di depan api unggun.
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May 31
Indonesia faces 'vicious' stagflation: Japan consumer goods firm
Kao Indonesia boss warns economy struggling with supply- and demand-side pressures
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May 27
A top quant lost his job due to an AI reasoning model replacing him at his company. He kept applying to different companies and tried his hand at macro writing but to no avail.
Eventually he swallows his pride and talks to his school friend who is now a plumber.
"I understand your old position was a finance maths guy. Why don't you come to our company and apply for a plumber position? You will earn half your old salary but the overtime and the union benefits make up for the rest. But remember, when you apply, tell them that you completed only seven elementary classes. They don't like educated people."
So it happened. The quant got a job as a plumber and his life significantly improved. He just had to seal a screw or two occasionally, and his salary was good enough and he had zero stress.
One day, the board of the plumbing company decided that every plumber had to go to evening classes to complete "basic financial literacy" certification. So, our quant had to go there too. It just happened that the first class was retirement planning. The evening teacher, to check students' knowledge, asked
“If you invest half your money in stocks and half in bonds, how do you calculate the portfolio return?”
The person asked was the quant. He jumped to the board, and then he realized that he had forgotten the formula. He started to reason it, and he filled the white board with He defined a filtered probability space (Ω, ℱ, {ℱ_t}, ℙ) and posited two correlated geometric Brownian motions for the risky and “risk-free” assets. He invoked the Radon-Nikodym derivative to switch to the risk-neutral measure ℚ, then switched back because the question was about realized returns, not prices.
He filled the whiteboard with stochastic discount factors, covariance matrices, CRRA utility functions, and pages of Itô calculus. He derived the wealth process under a self-financing strategy:
dW_t = W_t[(w R_s (1−w) R_b) dt w σ_s dB_t^s (1−w) σ_b dB_t^b]
Then he solved the HJB equation for the optimal allocation, noted that Merton’s solution collapses to a constant weight under log utility, and circled w = ½ as the given constraint.
He invoked the linearity of expectation. He cited Markowitz (1952). He drew a small efficient frontier in the corner for context.
Finally, exhausted, chalk-dusted, eyes wild, he arrived at:
R_p = ½ R_s ½ R_b
Then forty plumbers, in perfect unison, slammed their wrenches on the desks and roared:
“YOU FORGOT THE VOLATILITY DRAG, YOU FUCKING TOURIST!!”
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Kenapa muhammadiyah bisa kuat lawan grib? Karena berorganisir
Organize
May 25
Ternyata kasus 'pengamanan' anak ahmad bahar oleh anggota GRIB suruhan Hercules kemarin berujung panjang capt 😅
Gini kronologis kejadiannya:
• 14 Mei 2026 (Awal Mula Konflik):
Ponsel penulis Ahmad Bahar dan putrinya, Ilma Sani Fitriana (33), diduga diretas oleh pihak tidak dikenal. Akun tersebut mengirimkan pesan teks kasar dan video ancaman yang menyudutkan istri Hercules.
• 17 Mei 2026 (Pengepungan & Penjemputan Paksa):
Puluhan anggota ormas GRIB Jaya mendatangi rumah Ahmad Bahar di Cimanggis, Depok. Karena Ahmad Bahar tidak di tempat, massa membawa paksa Ilma ke markas DPP GRIB Jaya di Kedoya, Jakarta Barat, untuk diinterogasi.
• 17 Mei 2026, Malam (Intimidasi & Telepon Din Syamsuddin):
Di markas GRIB Jaya, Ilma mengaku dikelilingi pria berbadan besar, ditekan secara verbal, hingga diancam menggunakan letusan pistol sebanyak dua kali ke arah bawah. Di sela interogasi, Hercules berinisiatif menelepon Prof. Dr. Din Syamsuddin untuk memberi tahu bahwa ia sedang "mengamankan" Ilma guna memancing kehadiran ayahnya. Din Syamsuddin merespons tegas agar tidak ada kekerasan fisik maupun psikologis pada anak perempuan tersebut.
• 18 Mei 2026 (Mediasi Awal & Pembatalan):
Polres Metro Depok memediasi kedua pihak pada Senin dini hari. Surat kesepakatan damai sempat ditandatangani. Namun, pada malam harinya, Ahmad Bahar membatalkan kesepakatan damai tersebut sepihak setelah mendengar cerita utuh dari sang anak mengenai penodongan senjata api dan intimidasi berat di markas GRIB.
• 19–21 Mei 2026 (Keterlibatan LBH Muhammadiyah):
Berkat koordinasi Din Syamsuddin, LBH Pimpinan Pusat Muhammadiyah resmi turun tangan sebagai kuasa hukum korban. LBH Muhammadiyah mendampingi Ilma mengadu ke Komnas HAM dan Komnas Perempuan terkait pelanggaran hak dan kekerasan psikologis.
• 22–24 Mei 2026 (Saling Lapor ke Polda Metro Jaya):
Pihak Ilma bersama LBH Muhammadiyah resmi melaporkan Hercules ke Polda Metro Jaya atas dugaan penculikan, penyekapan (perampasan kemerdekaan), dan penyalahgunaan senjata api.
Pihak GRIB Jaya membantah keras tuduhan intimidasi. Mereka mengklaim penjemputan dilakukan terbuka disaksikan RW. Pihak Hercules langsung melaporkan balik keluarga Ahmad Bahar ke polisi atas dugaan penyebaran berita bohong (hoaks) dan pencemaran nama baik.
• Keadaan Saat Ini (25 Mei 2026):
Kasus hukum kini resmi bergulir dalam tahap penyelidikan awal oleh Ditreskrimum Polda Metro Jaya. Polisi sedang menjadwalkan pemeriksaan berkas laporan, olah TKP, serta pemanggilan saksi-saksi dari kedua belah pihak. Khawatir akan adanya intimidasi susulan, Ahmad Bahar dan putrinya hari ini telah resmi mengajukan permohonan perlindungan fisik ke Lembaga Perlindungan Saksi dan Korban (LPSK). Pihak Hercules juga menyatakan siap menghadapi proses hukum tersebut.
Kira2 bakal berakhir gimana nih capt? Damai? Atau jangan² 🤔
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Bill Ackman made $2.8 billion on a single interest rate hedge, his only regret: "we should have made $10 billion - we were a little timid"
he raised his first fund by cold-calling every billionaire on the Forbes 400 list. 100 meetings, 6 said yes and total: $3.1 million
his worst recent trade: lost $400 million on Netflix in a few months. "new facts emerged which were inconsistent with the original thesis - so we exited"
bookmark & listen ↓
Bill Ackman turned an $8 billion railroad into $25 billion in 16 months, he shorted a $7 billion bond insurer at $73
this is him explaining how at Oxford
"no one believed me, so I said: I hereby commit to give away 100% of any personal profit. that day was the high for the stock, it went from $73 to $3"
"the opportunity was simple: replace the worst CEO in the railroad industry with the best, stock went from $46 to $151 in 16 months"
test your strategy 60 times before risking a dollar, most people won't, the post below breaks down what that looks like in practice ↓
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May 24
Salah satu hal yg membuat saya surprise ketika menerjemahkan Franz Junghuhn adalah karena ternyata badak itu daya jelajahnya sampe ke puncak2 gunung!
Saya tuliskan di sini beberapa kutipan Junghuhn ketemu badak/jejak badak di Gede-Pangrango.
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May 24
Bangsat susah banget 😂😂😂
Apr 9
Animating the solution to this surprisingly interesting fruity math problem:
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May 23
Pakai embedding pretrained ResNet, lalu hitung distance.
@PAClearning gmn caranya identify video yg sama dengan waktu yg cepet?
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May 18
We just published a deep dive into Hyperliquid vaults after two major market shocks.👇
Key takeaways:
• 85% of serious vaults are now dead or abandoned
• User vaults are net -$82M overall
• Survivors took the hit, recovered, and kept compounding
• Growi HF ranks #1 by Sharpe, with a 2.55 Sharpe ratio.
The lesson: Don’t chase APR. Look at survival, volatility and risk-adjusted returns.
Read the full article ↓
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Practitioners somewhat ahead of academics
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