The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a nonpartisan, independent research institution devoted to studying international economic policy.
Joined March 2009
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The Trump administration is using Agreements on Reciprocal Trade to construct legal architecture to pull US trade partners away from China & constrain China economically. But the stringency of mechanisms vary across partner countries. #PIIECharts
More: piie.com/research/piie-chart…
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If oil prices stay around $120/barrel sharp rises in LNG, refined petroleum, & fertilizer prices for a year, global growth would slow, with economic effects spread unevenly. Emerging economies would be hit harder than advanced economies. #PIIECharts
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The EU is showing geopolitical leadership with its new trade agreements & partnership building with middle powers & others. It must maintain that credibility by adopting a targeted common strategy on China. It will not work with 27 different versions. piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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USMCA termination is highly unlikely. But the risk is not zero...because Trump is making heavy demands on Canada & Mexico & offering no concessions on US trade barriers.
If it was terminated, we explore the states & products that risk the greatest losses:
piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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The State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization designation for two organized crime gangs in Brazil puts further pressure on PIX, Brazil's central bank–owned instant payment platform.
Monica de Bolle explains: piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Venezuelan authorities may be prioritizing market investors over the welfare of their citizens or be succumbing to pressures from bondholders who seek to appropriate a piece of the resources from the country's renewed oil production, @alejandrowerne7 warns.piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Jun 12
If energy prices remain high from war in the Middle East, global growth slows relative to baseline projection, but effects are uneven. Those dependent on Middle East oil, petroleum, LNG, & fertilizer see the largest decline in GDP & increase in inflation. piie.com/publications/workin…
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The deal of the ARTs: The Trump admin has made deals called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade with partners adjusting tariffs for concessions. But ARTs have mechanisms the US may use to control supply chains beyond its borders—& depth & stringency of commitments vary. #PIIECharts
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Jun 12
USMCA termination is highly unlikely. But the risk is not zero...because Trump is making heavy demands on Canada & Mexico & offering no concessions on US trade barriers.
If it was terminated, we explore the states & products that risk the greatest losses:
piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Jun 12
Reconstructing Venezuela will be one of the most arduous challenges any Latin American nation has ever encountered & will require public resources that will come from the international financial institutions whose debt is senior to current bondholders.piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Jun 12
If higher energy prices from the war in the Middle East persist for a year, global growth will slow, hurting emerging economies more than advanced. Countries more dependent on Middle Eastern oil, natural gas, & fertilizers would experience the largest hits to GDP. #PIIECharts
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Jun 12
“A critical test for Warsh in the early going will be whether he delivers the cuts Trump so strenuously demanded,” says David Wilcox.
“Depending on how economic circumstances unfold, Warsh & his colleagues may be put in the difficult position of having to defy Trump by not delivering rate cuts & conceivably even hiking them.”
washingtonpost.com/business/…
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Jun 12
Trump's Agreements on Reciprocal Trade with 9 trading partners construct a legal architecture to pull US trade partners away from China & to constrain China economically—setting a framework to mold global value chains around US strategic preferences. piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Jun 12
.@MalmstromEU discusses the Turnberry agreement ("humiliating"), rules-based trade ("not out of fashion"), the future of EU trade (EU-CPTPP rapprochement is the most promising), & more.
Read:
theparliamentmagazine.eu/new…
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Jun 12
When Lula visited the White House, USTR's Section 301 investigation & State's Foreign Terrorist Organization designation were kept off the table.
Now, Brasília is scrambling to respond, as both are seen as intrusions on Brazilian sovereignty. piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Jun 12
The Trump admin has made deals called Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) with trading partners to adjust tariffs for some concessions. But the ARTs have mechanisms the US may use to control supply chains beyond its borders—& depth & stringency of commitments vary. #PIIECharts
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Peterson Institute retweeted
Jun 11
"China wants to have all of the positives of these markets, with none of the volatility....They want the market, but they don't really want the full package."
-@ChorzempaMartin
📺"Pricing the Future: China's Ambitions for Commodity Derivatives Markets"
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