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Jan 12
[PSE Weekly Market Review | Week of 2026/01/05]
Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence
The Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concerning a multi-year renovation project at the Federal Reserve. While President Trump has frequently critiqued the Fed’s decision to maintain higher interest rates, this legal move represents a significant shift, as the use of the judicial process in relation to monetary policy figures was previously considered a remote possibility.
Market volatility increased following the news: gold and silver rose 2% and 6% respectively, while US equity indices opened down 0.1% on Monday. Analysts suggest the subpoena may be intended to limit the current Chair’s influence over the transition to future leadership; however, the resulting market uncertainty and public discourse suggest the move may have complicating effects on the administration’s broader economic objectives.
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Jan 12
Executive Oversight of Defense Sector Capital Allocation
President Trump issued an executive order last week restricting defense contractors from executing share buybacks until delivery schedules for the US military are optimized. Non-compliance could lead to exclusion from the military supply chain. While the specialized nature of defense manufacturing presents logistical challenges to replacing these suppliers, the White House has demonstrated a willingness to implement unconventional market interventions.
This increased executive involvement has prompted a re-evaluation of US market stability relative to global peers. Since the 2025 inauguration, the SPY/EEM ratio, which measures the performance of US stocks relative to emerging markets, has declined by approximately 15%.
This indicates a relative outperformance by emerging markets, mirroring a trend observed between 2016 and 2018 that eventually reversed.
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Jan 12
Bitcoin Performance Relative to Precious Metals
Despite the upward movement in gold and silver following recent headlines, Bitcoin has not experienced a similar trajectory, retracing its gains during European trading hours. Even with the disclosure that Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired $1.25 billion in BTC at an average price of $91,591 last week, the asset ended the first week of 2026 down 0.56%. This performance suggests a divergence between Bitcoin and other "hard assets" that have maintained consistent growth.
Historical data from March to September 2020 shows a similar pattern where Bitcoin remained range-bound despite a significant rally in US equities. In that instance, Bitcoin only began a substantial appreciation, rising from $10,300 to $63,500, after the broader stock market entered a consolidation phase. A similar dynamic may be unfolding currently, where Bitcoin undergoes a period of consolidation before capital potentially moving further out on the risk curve, allowing Bitcoin to catch up to the rest of the market.
This trend remains subject to broader economic factors, including the capital requirements of the AI sector compared to the purely liquidity-driven environment of the 2020 era.
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Jan 4
[PSE Weekly Market Review 2025/12/29]
The digital asset market has started 2026 with notable strength. Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.8%, the "OTHERS" index has climbed 7.7%, and several high-beta altcoins have posted double-digit gains.
Historical Context and Seasonality
Historically, the first week of January provides a period of relative stability. As year-end tax-loss harvesting concludes, the prevailing sell pressure typically dissipates. In the last 10 years, the first week of the year closed in the green in 6 out of 10 times, with an average performance of 1.08%. This placement puts the opening week in the median performance bracket compared to all other weeks of the year.
Near-Term Outlook
The market's resilience over the weekend, maintaining upward momentum despite unprecedented geopolitical headlines, suggests a robust underlying demand. As the first full trading week of 2026 commences on January 5, we expect the current trajectory to persist, providing a constructive start to the year for investors.
Key Catalyst: MSTR MSCI Decision
The next critical focal point is the MSCI index exclusion decision regarding MicroStrategy (MSTR), scheduled for January 15. While a delisting would trigger significant forced selling from passive funds, it is important that no changes or liquidations will be forced upon MSTR’s underlying Bitcoin balance sheet, preserving the company's core treasury strategy regardless of the index outcome.
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30 Dec 2025
Traditional Markets
The S&P 500 remains flat as market participants exit for the holiday break.
Silver recently touched the $81/ounce mark, leading a surge in precious metals that has begun to pull liquidity out of the broader market. Anticipating more stimulative fiscal and monetary policies under the second Trump administration, both private and institutional investors, including the Chinese central bank, have aggressively accumulated metals throughout 2025.
Gold’s year-to-date performance stands at 72.5%, while silver’s momentum accelerated over the last two months to end the year with a staggering 185.5% return.
Notably, the rally in these two majors is rivaled only by the 1979 Oil Crisis, during which gold rose 356% and silver 618% since their break out, followed by significant drawdowns of -70% and -90%, respectively.
To determine the next leg for metals and the subsequent reaction in crypto, we are monitoring two key questions:
1. Will projected productivity gains resolve currency debasement fears and restore USD credibility, or will nation-states continue to accumulate gold as a hedge against the ever growing debt bubble of the US Government?
2. Will the United States formalize Bitcoin as a reserve asset, or will the proposal remain merely an election talking point?
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30 Dec 2025
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains largely range-bound in the final days of 2025, on track to close the year down 6%.
Over the past year, BTC ETFs saw inflows exceeding 21,000 BTCs, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased over $166 billion in BTC. The consistent inflow was most impactful following the April tariff turmoil, which propelled Bitcoin above $120,000.
However, as prices exceeded expectations, long-term holders and early ETF participants began taking profits, and inflow from the above mentioned buyers also waned.
A significant upcoming catalyst is MSTR’s potential exclusion from the MSCI Index, a decision that could impact up to 30% of its market capitalization currently held by passive investors. Notably, MSTR has resumed aggressive BTC purchases as the decision date approaches.
We anticipate significant volatility in early 2026 as Bitcoin’s relative performance against other asset classes forces investors to rebalance. Additionally, the resolution of political tensions following the mid-term elections will be a critical factor to watch.
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30 Dec 2025
Uniswap
After six years of operation, Uniswap has initiated its first fee burn via the "UNIfication" proposal. This proposal involves sending 100M UNI to a burn address and permanently removing a percentage of fees from V2 and select V3 pools from circulation.
The proposal also introduces a new 20M UNI annual growth budget, distributed quarterly to the development team. Based on average protocol activity throughout 2025, the simulated net burn is expected to range between 5M and 10M UNI tokens annually if activity persists at the current level.
As a cornerstone of the DeFi ecosystem, Uniswap’s transition to a "fee switch" model sets a vital precedent. The market’s valuation of UNI post-UNIfication will likely serve as a blueprint for other DeFi protocols considering similar value-accrual mechanisms.
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PSE Trading retweeted
10 Dec 2025
FOMC cuts by 25 bps as expected
Three dissents: Goolsbee and Schmid opposed the cut. Miran wanted a 50 bps cut.
The SEP shows six officials of 19 didn’t favor a cut
The median dot is unchanged for 2026
The Fed will start “reserve management purchases” this week, beginning at $40 billion per month in T-bills
The statement changes:
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PSE Trading retweeted
5 Dec 2025
Hassett says the Fed should reduce rates "cautiously":
"The government shutdown had a bigger negative effect on the economy than we expected, but we're going to have a bigger rebound in the first quarter. Against that backdrop, it's a good time for the Fed to cautiously reduce rates again, and that's what I expect that they're going to do." foxbusiness.com/video/638603…
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7 Dec 2025
[PSE Week Ahead | December 8, 2025]
Equities Market
We expect a low-to-moderate volatility week for the equities market, driven by two factors: the year-end reduction in market liquidity and a widely-telegraphed policy outlook from the Federal Reserve.
1. Seasonal Tailwinds & Positioning
Year-End Flows: As the final weeks of the year commence, a notable decline in institutional participation and trading volumes is standard.
The Santa Claus Rally Setup: Managers are concluding year-end positioning. This includes tax-loss harvesting and concentrating positions into portfolio winners, actions that traditionally provide a foundation for the year-end "Santa Rally".
2. Macro & Policy Stability
Key Fed Decision: The upcoming FOMC meeting this week is the final major central bank event of the year. With the policy angle of the next Fed Chair well-telegraphed and market expectations for the December rate cut largely priced in, we anticipate this to be a non-volatility-inducing event, allowing the market to focus on the soft landing narrative.
Trade Truce: The renewed commitment to dialogue and the recently brokered trade truce between the US and China removes a near-term systemic geopolitical risk, further supporting market stability into year-end.
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7 Dec 2025
Altcoins
After a year of disappointing performance, we believe altcoins will continue its weakness against Bitcoin for the last month of the year as they are used for tax-loss harvesting.
However, due to its low liquidity profile and wide mindshare for the past 2 weeks, memecoins are likely to continue outperforming the rest of the altcoins for the week.
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30 Nov 2025
[PSE Weekly Market Review | Week of 24/11/2025]
Equities: Market Prices in December Rate Cut
Rate Expectation Returns to a 25 bps Cut:
Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, publicly supported a rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This statement provides Chairman Powell with additional support should he decide to pursue monetary easing.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.
Equity Market Performance
The stock market continued its recovery from the previous Friday's sell-off throughout the week. As of Friday's close:
• The S&P 500 (SPX) is only 1.6% away from its all-time high.
• The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) remains further behind, as concerns over a potential lack of a rate cut in December disproportionately affected growth stocks.
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30 Nov 2025
HYPE Demonstrates Resilience Following Major Vesting Event:
On November 29th, Hyperliquid executed the first in a series of core contributor vesting events, releasing 9.92 million $HYPE tokens. This first release will be followed by 23 subsequent unlocks of comparable size.
On-Chain Distribution Analysis
Approximately 7% of the unlocked tokens were transferred to an Over-the-Counter (OTC) desk, indicating pre-arranged, off-market sales designed to minimize direct exchange pressure.
10% of the tokens were unstaked from the platform.
The remaining balance has been retained in staking on the Hyperliquid platform.
Market Impact Assessment
Overall, the token's price action appears to be less influenced by the increase in circulating supply and more correlated with broader weakness across the general market. The market's ability to absorb this initial supply shock with limited volatility is a positive signal of $HYPE's liquidity and investor conviction.
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