Rather than speculate about head of Russia's Central Bank Elvira
#Nabiullina's successor, observers would do better to ask what would actually be required to lower interest rates within the current fragile balance of fiscal, monetary, and political forces.
Peace is not an option, at least not yet. Any solution would therefore demand administrative measures and unconventional thinking from a technocratic elite long accustomed to staying within orthodox boundaries.
It is becoming harder to see how the existing dysfunction between fiscal, monetary, military, and growth policies can continue without a more administrative approach to economic management. While it is still too early to say, the drama surrounding Nabiullina and the Bank of Russia suggests that old taboos may be weakening.
In an environment where high interest rates can themselves push up inflation in key sectors, there is less room for orthodoxy. Even technocrats eventually have to learn new tricks.
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