Just took a potential 250x bet on
@Polymarket (as did
@0xSweep earlier as well).
It is undeniable that Microstrategy sold 32 bitcoin before May 31st, 11:59 pm ET, as their own filing from June 1st shows.
Got 5,123 "YES" shares for $20, for may 31st.
The market's rule was simple:
"This market will resolve to "YES" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO"."
Not when they announce it, when the sell it.
Market still resolved to "NO". It was disputed once, instantly resolved to "NO" again. Hours later, disputed again, where we are now (in dispute)
16 hours till the 2nd dispute settles, which means anyone could still make this very decent risk/return bet, nfa.
The only reason why this would resolve to "NO" is bad faith, a fundamentally broken resolution system that would expose them as unable to guarantee the correct functioning of their platform, or straight up corruption, which wouldn't be the craziest.
Oh, and the cherry on top:
x.com/PolymarketMoney/status… they literally admitted to it themselves in one of their accounts 😭
Even with all this evidence, it's a very long shot
Holding 5,123 shares as of now 👀
Worst case, I lose $20. Best case, I make 5k. Might buy a litte more tomorrow when I wake.
I believe it would be cheaper, for various reasons, for polymarket to resolve properly & fairly to the corresponing "YES".
We'll see in a few hours