Joined October 2016
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My YouTube-Channel Deep Dive Defense ➡️ has reached 3⃣0⃣.0⃣0⃣0⃣ Subscribers ! The support of everyone that enabled this is highly appreciated! DDD is naturally not a algorithm-favorite and each subscription is a great support Click below! ⬇️ youtube.com/@DeepDiveDefense…
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The large radar destroyed in Bahrain a few days ago rises questions - Qatar's 'billion dollar' AN/FPS-132 radar was spared from destruction and only disabled via drones - Bahrain's key radar was not attacked at all during the war but pulverized via a ballistic missile strike during the ceasefire phase ➡️ Did Bahrain & Qatar shut the radars down on Iran's request after experiencing Iran's capabilities? (Iran can verfy via emissions/ELINT) ➡️ In the final phase before a deal, did Iran strike Bahraini and Kuwaiti radars—and, allegedly, Jordanian F-16 ➡️ to compel these last remaining enablers of U.S. operations to protest, once they had paid a price in the form of their own military assets?
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Simulating the main-mission of the 🇷🇺 Oreshnik Missile: ➡️Striking hard targets 🇺🇸 Rammstein Airbase (🇩🇪) runway/taxiway junctions: A single Oreshnik hitting 6 critical points for flight operations - All parameters like in the previous (quoted) simulation - 6m dia. crater with several meters depth & strong deformation due to massive shock Deep damage would suppress normal operations for days and that's just a single Oreshnik ➡️ A week of e.g. daily one Qreshnik would devastate the runways or a long period
Simulated effects of a surprise 🇷🇺 Oreshnik IRBM strike against 🇺🇸 Rammstein Airbase (🇩🇪) ➡️ Soft airpower support assets are targeted by: - 6 x 6 kinetic 50kg projectiles - Mach 9 hypersonic impact speed - CEP 50m due to ~60% artificially steeper re-entry angle & high speed (ballistic coefficient) - Destructive effect against soft targets assumed to be at least 25m
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Another hard-target class are large bunkers, in this example a very big one at 🇺🇸 Al-Udeid Airbase (🇶🇦) ➡️ All 36 projectiles concentrated on a single target (50m CEP, 6m crater diameter)
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Simulated effects of a surprise 🇷🇺 Oreshnik IRBM strike against 🇺🇸 Rammstein Airbase (🇩🇪) ➡️ Soft airpower support assets are targeted by: - 6 x 6 kinetic 50kg projectiles - Mach 9 hypersonic impact speed - CEP 50m due to ~60% artificially steeper re-entry angle & high speed (ballistic coefficient) - Destructive effect against soft targets assumed to be at least 25m
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Result: No, Oreshnik is not only useful in a nuclear context ➡️ Used in a surprise scenario it can inflict heavy damage on high-priority objects and delivers considerable firepower in one shot
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My psychic abilities tell me that Trump's response will end on request of a highly respected Pakistani individual
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Before canceling planned strikes on Iran Thursday, Trump spoke with Pakistani mediators, who told him they had “a deal” with Iran. Source: NYT
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A compact, stealthy cruise-missile like the 🇮🇱 Ice Breaker is a great weapon for assassinations; IF it can be updated on the targets real-time position in the last moment ➡️ The device found in Tehran could be a course-update antenna, as visualized in the Ice Breaker promo video
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Patarames retweeted
"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k ) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible
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🇮🇱 Ramat David Airbase is interestingly clean a day or few after the 🇮🇷 missile impact ➡️ Seems like it's of highest priority to clean up any damage as quickly as possible Quick superficial cleaning makes detection by available low resolution imagery (e.g. Sentinel) difficult
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Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?
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Two MaRV gliders made it through a salvo of 10 ($40 million) PAC-3 Two other MaRVs seem to have been intercepted (total 4)
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Correction: Looks more like just one was intercepted Usually I try to stay conservative in favor of the underdog in such situations (U.S. in this case)
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🇺🇸 B-52 with JASSM cruise-missiles are the prerequisite for a serious engagement with Iran They: ➡️ Force Iran's Missile Cities to operate under stricter security protocols ➡️ Temporarily block the tunnel entrances which further help to decrease Iran's, nominally vast, firepower
US Air Force B-52H Strategic Bomber (61-0018) took off from NAS Sigonella, heading towards the region.
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Intimidation? US B-52 are almost in the center of Saudi Arabia. They are 1 hour away from being in position to launch cruise missiles at Iran (assuming the attack tonight is certain)
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Oh my! That's a Khorramshahr-4 Kheybar with its exo-atmospheric MaRV! A missile never known to have been used yet (and not seen launched in the video!) It's unitary 1,5 ton warhead is the heaviest one known in the IRGC-ASF ➡️ Looks like a warning...
Footage from the Ramadan War shows IRGC Aerospace Force operators launching Khorramshahr medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) toward Israel.
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Patarames retweeted
Simulated effects of a salvo of 2⃣0⃣ Khorramshahr-4 missiles equipped with 20 heavy 100kg Submunitions (on a key 🇮🇱 facility) Details: - 300m CEP for a tri-conic-RV, heavy-Submunition released outside the atmosphere - 100kg Submunition assumed have heavy destructive effect out to 40m. Mach 5-6 impact energy (see supposed impact video) - 4 salvo/aimpoints of 5 Khorramshahr = 20, each equipped with 20 heavy-type Submunitions (400 total) The facility in the simulation is not of soft type, since it has berms to protect against nearby hits and contain the effects of an accidental explosion The salvo-size of 20 missiles is not outlandish for such a high-priority target. CEP is neither for a relative high ballistic-coefficient tri-conic re-entry vehicle PLUS early-release dispersion effect (to defeat endo-atmospheric missile defenses) ➡️ I did this to illustrate the power of heavy throwers like the Khorramshahr even without precision enhancers like GPS or MaRV. A relative low-cost weapon that can defeat every defense, except for the upper-tier SM-3 and to a lower extend THAAD & Arrow-3 PS: It also serves as an eye-opener on the fact that Iran didn't opt to use such destructive weapons against civilian targets like downtown Tel Aviv
The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level
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Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)
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