This is, perversely, good news for Britain, Australia, Japan, Europe, and other countries being cut off that would once have seen themselves as close allies of the United States. It shows us what the future may hold if AI is the strategically and economically decisive technology of the 21st century and is controlled by the US and China. It is good news because *it may be happening early enough to give us time to act.* I think this will be rescinded pretty soon, but it’s a sign of things to come. In a future where frontier models cannot be used outside the US, our industries and economies will fall behind and American businesses may not be able to operate overseas. We won’t be able to defend ourselves militarily with defence systems built on obsolete software. Europe 2031 is a good scenario of what a future like this could mean: europe2031.ai Some of the things we need to do are ‘no regrets’ measures we should do anyway. But some are genuinely costly and risky. We need cheap electricity – powered by gas, coal (this is costly, coal is very bad), deregulated nuclear fission – whatever can provide *cheap, reliable, 24/7* power. This almost certainly excludes wind power, which is enormously expensive and unreliable. We need projects to be able to connect to the grid in days rather than years by paying for fast-track connections. We need to make it incredibly easy to build data centres, with the property taxes retained locally and hypothecated for local tax cuts so there is some direct benefit for locals. This doesn’t need to be nationwide. We need to create new regulatory regimes for innovative businesses that give them the right to hire and fire staff with ease. The difficulty and cost of firing staff is one of the main reasons Europe has fallen behind so badly. We need to create a parallel employment regime that companies and workers can opt in to: worksinprogress.co/issue/why… Even though I think it will probably fail, I think we should probably try to create a good, non-American frontier AI lab. I am quite pessimistic about this – even extremely well-resourced, innovative software companies are struggling to do this. But the stakes are so high that not trying seems foolish. One thing that might work in our favour is the number of brilliant AI engineers who are not US citizens, who under the current export controls do not have access to Mythos/Fable even if they live and work in the US. What happens to Demis Hassabis, Ilya Sutskever, Andrej Karpathy, and the many other Europeans, Canadians, etc who are working on AI models in Britain and America who are affected by this? I do not think we should force our own companies to use model, because this would exacerbate their economic weakness – this lab should have to compete on an even playing field. I am deeply sceptical that this can work, but we cannot rule it out. If we do it, it has to be able to pay US salaries, operate without political constraints. worksinprogress.co/issue/how… It is cope to tell yourself that Trump is an aberration or that these export controls are a one-off. To repeat, I think these specific controls will be lifted quickly and it will be easy to move on and forget it happened. But this is a look into a potential future. Every one of us that is not a US citizen is at risk. The standard political divides do not apply here; the question is whether you grasp the enormity of AI as a technology. We have to act!

This one's been a long time coming! Longitudinal projects are live now on @Prolific, a dedicated way to run multi-wave research from start to finish.

The infrastructure we need can be the infrastructure we like, worthy of the communities they serve. Let’s build with taste! 🇬🇧

Autonomous agents are good at exploring within a frame, but not at stepping outside it. Our team ran 50 autoresearch experiments on a DPO task - the agent flagged LoRA by experiment 11 and never followed up. Five minutes of guidance unlocked it 👇🏻 huggingface.co/blog/Prolific…

The data quality problem isn't going away anytime soon. About a month ago we announced Prolific's 100% Human Guarantee, but the real work is in the systems that stop threats from getting through in the first place. I've shared more thoughts here: prolific.com/resources/ai-ag…

Prolific, a fast-growing Irish-founded company which has developed an online platform to gather data to train AI models, is set to surpass $500 million (€428 million) in annualised revenue this month. businesspost.ie/tech/irish-f…

AI pollution in human data samples is a hot topic. Some great work from @andrew_j_gordon et al. showing that concerns here are (generally) overblown, with the majority of platforms empirically showing low levels of AI pollution. osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/pv…

New preprint out today (osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/pv…). We tested whether AI agents are actually infiltrating online surveys. Spoiler alert: they aren't Thread 🧵 [1/9]

Europe has amazing companies, it’s time to celebrate them Today, with @SebJohnsonUK, we're launching the Scaling Europe Top 50 - the definitive list of Europe's fastest growing companies: 📊 Quantitative, fresh data ❌ No vibes-based ranking, no vanity metrics We're collecting actual, recorded 2025 revenue data to generate this list, and we've already had over 120 nominations from VCs across Europe. Public nominations are now open (link in thread). Our goal is simple: To create the most robust ranking of high-growth European tech companies ever produced, and then make as much noise about them as possible. It's time to change the narrative around Europe. Excited to be working with Scaling Europe @jpmorgan @nebiusai

scoop: UK chip start-up Fractile seeks to raise $200mn to challenge Nvidia with A team @tim and @GeorgeNHammond ft.com/content/07590da1-ee27…

Today we’re launching the Prolific 100% Human Guarantee. If an AI agent is detected in your Prolific study, you'll get twice the cost of that participant response back. @Prolific’s bot authenticity checks have been doing AI detection work for a while now, tested against major detection methods and achieving 100% accuracy. But it's the years of investment and 50 checks before participants even see your study that make us especially confident. Read about our guarantee here, I would love to hear any other feedback: prolific.com/100-human-guara…

New working paper on online research data quality, led by @univienna reveals that pass rates on quality checks vary wildly by source. Pretty interesting. Prolific: 90% | Lab: 80% | Bilendi: 73% | Moblab: 55% | MTurk: 9% | AI agents: 0% github.com/survey-data-quali… CC @yusof_jeff

Day 4, video #4. This hour-long, zero-shot autonomy video is a route I've done many times: from our London HQ to Heathrow 🇬🇧 Starting in London forced us to build autonomy that could scale. Compared to SF, London has 10x more cyclists, 15x more pedestrians and 20x more roadworks. This is what we've built at @wayve_ai. Check it out!

EU Inc. proposal right now: - max. 48 hrs and €100 to incorporate - registration through common EU portal, automatic tax registration - fully digital process, no notaries - EU employee stock option plans, taxed only when sold - simplified insolvency procedures