Entrepreneur | I help bettors beat sportsbooks using market inefficiencies, Built software to find EV bets automatically | Link Below👇
Joined March 2013
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- Following 2,174
- Followers 104,365
- Likes 63,674
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1 Dec 2025
The final tally is in....
I made $14,718 as a part time sports bettor in the month of November.
The best part is, I spend 1-2 hours a day placing bets.
Want to know my process? Here's a thread on exactly how I do it....
A 🧵 [🔖bookmark for later]
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If I were in a room with Jeffrey Epstein, Adolf Hitler, and De’Aaron Fox, and had two bullets…
I’d shoot Fox twice
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Please
Can we just like trade fox in the middle of the game? Is that possible?
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Can we just like trade fox in the middle of the game? Is that possible?
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I have one thing to say before the game starts…..
This is the most obvious Spurs win tonight and if you don’t see that…. You don’t know ball
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UD 3.5X🎯
Whales are hammering OG Anunoby under right now....
Multiple clips came in above the 2 man breakeven line.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
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Play #1 - OG Anunoby LOWER 18.5 Points: taken from the @UpsideTools Whale Watch: upside.tools/whale-watch:
Whale Watch is showing $1.0K in whale volume on OG under, with multiple clips landing above our UD 3.5X breakeven.
Whales are laying:
-123 for $225.
-121 for $197.
-120 for $190.
-119 for $200.
UD 2 man only needs about 53.5% per leg to breakeven at 3.5X.
That is the entire point of Whale Watch. We are not guessing on OG points in a vacuum. We are copying real exchange money that is willing to pay a worse price than what we need through the slip payout.
Whales are already in. I am following the money.
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Jsut dropped this Sleeper Discount slip in the free @UpsideTools Discord server💪
Will drop a link in the replies for you to join if you're interested!👇
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PrizePicks 6X🎯
This is why discounted props matter....
Siri by himself is sitting just under normal 3 man breakeven.
But the Vini discount changes the entire slip math.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
14h
I didn’t even know there was a discount….
Getting in the lab now boys and girls🫡
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/bxe62y
Play #1 - Jose Siri OVER 0.5 Batter Hits Runs RBIs: taken from the @UpsideTools EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Siri is the leg that looks close at first glance.
The optimizer has him at 54.6% to hit, while a normal PrizePicks 3 man needs 54.95% per leg.
But this is not a normal 3 man.
Vini is discounted down to 1.5 shots, which pushes the average % odds to hit on the full slip well above the normal breakeven threshold.
That is the part most people miss with discounted props. One leg can slightly trail the normal breakeven number, but if the discounted leg is strong enough, the full slip math still clears.
This video explains why the price matters more than the pick:
youtu.be/ZglmqYIP4Gk
The discount is the edge.
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I didn’t even know there was a discount….
Getting in the lab now boys and girls🫡
you have a three man for the world
cup discount
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LMAOO 45K people💀
Let me guess....
He has to go over cause the Spurs have to win? ðŸ˜ðŸ˜
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UD 26.8X🎯
Whales are taking Sandy León HR at 1493 and 1538....
UD still has him in a longshot slip paying $36 into $965.16....paying 1620 on it.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/kvjcxo
Play #1 - Sandy León OVER 0.5 Home Runs: taken from the @UpsideTools Whale Watch: upside.tools/whale-watch:
This is the longshot leg that popped.
$276 in whale volume came in above breakeven on Sandy León to hit a HR.
ProphetX 1493 for $251.
Novig 1538 for $25.
Whales are taking the shot at those numbers, and UD is letting us build the same HR side into a slip paying $36 into $965.16.
That is the entire point of Whale Watch. You are not guessing which longshot is live. You are finding where real bettors already put money behind the longshot before the rest of the market reacts.
When whales are willing to fire on a HR prop this thin, I am fine taking the same side at a bigger payout structure.
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$60 -> $750💣💣
30% NBA winnings boost changes the entire math here....
Vassell under is clearing the boosted breakeven while the market is already shaded lower.
Link to tail in Replies 👇
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Link to tail: upside.tools/go/cys6ax
Play #1 - Devin Vassell UNDER 13.5 Points: taken from the @UpsideTools EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
This is the exact type of spot where the boost matters.
Pick6 is giving us Vassell under at the standard 4 man price, but the 30% winnings boost drops the breakeven down to roughly 53%.
The optimizer has this at 54.8% to hit after devigging the market, which means the market probability clears the boosted slip math.
Also notice the line movement around the board. Multiple books are already sitting at 12.5 instead of 13.5, which tells you the market has shaded this lower.
That is why you do not just look at the Pick6 card. You compare the number to the board, then let the boost do its job.
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Just realized this one cash from yesterday 😃
LFG
Anyone tail??
Jun 12
Link to tail: upside.tools/go/nbxiv4
Play #2 - Mookie Betts LESS 1.5 Bases: taken from the @UpsideTools EV Optimizer: upside.tools:
Betts is the market confirmation leg here.
Pick6 is giving us the under at the standard 3 leg price of -122, but the broader board is leaning to the same side.
Pinnacle -136.
Novig -127.
ProphetX -138.
Hard Rock -144.
Fliff -155.
etc.
The optimizer has Betts under at 54.1% to hit on its own, which is slightly below the normal 54.95% Pick6 3 leg threshold.
But that is not the full story on this slip.
Kurtz getting discounted from 3.5 H R RBI down to 1.5 pushes his single leg hit rate into that 65% to 75% range, which drags the overall average hit rate per leg well above breakeven.
So Betts does not need to be some massive standalone edge. He just needs to be a fair market supported leg next to the discounted Kurtz number.
That is how you build these correctly.
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