Last night I made an impatient trade which almost cost me the @Hivelive_ Polymarket Trading Tournament
I had been predicting (gambling) quite succesfully the first few days and had built up to around a $420 portfolio
( $220 profit from the initial $200 max starting allowance = 110% growth in 3 days which I was quite happy with)
Placing me in the top 10 of arouind 180 participants.
I was closely watching the Basketball games ongoing and noticed that the Pistons (top of the league, huge favourites going into this matchup) were down against the Wizards (who notoriously suck atm)
Checking the odds, it was down to around 0.75¢ from the 0.92¢ it started at
The pistons were on a massive winning streak and amongst many other basic stats, I didn't see any way in which they'd lose.
Great, a free trade with good returns!
So I thought...
I went in MAX with my ≈$330 balance (The other $90 was in a trade)
*stupid, never do this, this is illogical gambling at this point with no RR strategy nor discipline*
The $330 would of returned $408 on something I thought was a cert.
Bringing my total portfolio to approx $500, placing me in the Top 5.
Great, some social exposure.
Then as the match continued...
The pistons kept on getting whooped, with their star player Cade breaking records for the amounts of shots taken without scoring...
Things kept on getting worse & worse going into the final quarter, with the team I had backed still being down by 10 points with just a few minutes to go.
I still wanted to be in the tournament but the odds were dropping drastically.
From 0.92¢ to 0.75¢ to 0.17¢ to 0.13¢
I had to cashout if I wanted to continue.
Quickly I went to my portfolio and redeemed $55 from my initial $330 I used for the trade.
I was now at a loss and completely fumbled.
The match continued and the odds for Pistons kept on dropping
All the way down to 0.02¢
I questioned putting $50 on, even got to the 'sign' confirmation popup.
It would of returned $1000 putting me clear as 1st on the leaderboard.
But it would of been a silly, emotional trade.
The match had pretty much finished, I felt deflated.
But happy I cashed out to atleast keep my chances alive
(of which I have now recovered back to being around $120 profit and 30th!)
But then, in the final play of the game... whilst the odds were still down to around $0.04¢
1.6 seconds left in the game
The Pistons hit a buzzer beater 3 pointer with 0 seconds on the clock.
The result?
Pistons brought them to OT out of nowhere in which they ended up winning and making the initial trade a W.
I was absolutely fuming.
The lesson?
> Keep emotion out of it
> Stick to discipline
> Structured sizing
If only i'd stuck to my guns...