identifying polymarket pricing mistakes, value & market ongoings

Joined June 2025
63 Photos and videos
If I had a tool that you could deploy a 24/7 polymarket trading agent that made profits for you around the clock with a full terminal you can monitor realtime PNL, would you use it?
1
1
136
22 Dec 2025
back polymarketing
1
140
11 Nov 2025
Last night I made an impatient trade which almost cost me the @Hivelive_ Polymarket Trading Tournament I had been predicting (gambling) quite succesfully the first few days and had built up to around a $420 portfolio ( $220 profit from the initial $200 max starting allowance = 110% growth in 3 days which I was quite happy with) Placing me in the top 10 of arouind 180 participants. I was closely watching the Basketball games ongoing and noticed that the Pistons (top of the league, huge favourites going into this matchup) were down against the Wizards (who notoriously suck atm) Checking the odds, it was down to around 0.75¢ from the 0.92¢ it started at The pistons were on a massive winning streak and amongst many other basic stats, I didn't see any way in which they'd lose. Great, a free trade with good returns! So I thought... I went in MAX with my ≈$330 balance (The other $90 was in a trade) *stupid, never do this, this is illogical gambling at this point with no RR strategy nor discipline* The $330 would of returned $408 on something I thought was a cert. Bringing my total portfolio to approx $500, placing me in the Top 5. Great, some social exposure. Then as the match continued... The pistons kept on getting whooped, with their star player Cade breaking records for the amounts of shots taken without scoring... Things kept on getting worse & worse going into the final quarter, with the team I had backed still being down by 10 points with just a few minutes to go. I still wanted to be in the tournament but the odds were dropping drastically. From 0.92¢ to 0.75¢ to 0.17¢ to 0.13¢ I had to cashout if I wanted to continue. Quickly I went to my portfolio and redeemed $55 from my initial $330 I used for the trade. I was now at a loss and completely fumbled. The match continued and the odds for Pistons kept on dropping All the way down to 0.02¢ I questioned putting $50 on, even got to the 'sign' confirmation popup. It would of returned $1000 putting me clear as 1st on the leaderboard. But it would of been a silly, emotional trade. The match had pretty much finished, I felt deflated. But happy I cashed out to atleast keep my chances alive (of which I have now recovered back to being around $120 profit and 30th!) But then, in the final play of the game... whilst the odds were still down to around $0.04¢ 1.6 seconds left in the game The Pistons hit a buzzer beater 3 pointer with 0 seconds on the clock. The result? Pistons brought them to OT out of nowhere in which they ended up winning and making the initial trade a W. I was absolutely fuming. The lesson? > Keep emotion out of it > Stick to discipline > Structured sizing If only i'd stuck to my guns...
3
3
465
11 Nov 2025
who comes up with these markets 💀💀💀
11 Nov 2025
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Zohran Mamdani be deported this year? poly.market/XQ6oOD0
2
3
558
10 Nov 2025
Some more steady portfolio growth plays i've taken for tonight: I have placed $4000 on the NBA in comfy returns. >$3000 on Pistons Win v Wizards @ 0.83¢ (Returns $3615) >$1000 on Cavaliers win v Heat @ 0.73¢ (Returns $1379) Assuming both win, $4000 returns $4994.00 Nothing flashy, just portfolio builders. Some stats if it interests you: > Pistons 6/6 in wins. Wizards 8/8 in losses. > Cavaliers 4/4 in wins. > Cavaliers 7/7 in wins against Heat.
1
3
465
10 Nov 2025
Started tweeting 1 week ago on @PolySnipe about all things and have seen awesome growth so far: 123 followers 51k Impressions 47 tweets 82 Replies 328 profile visits But most importantly, i'd like to think that amongst the posts, value has been provided. Growing my public portfolio up from $2500 → $4225, gving $1725 in profit (68% growth already) 💰 Documenting each trade i've taken with a mini thesis. Been great learning & sharing alongside everyone, long may it last 😄
1
1
231
10 Nov 2025
You should follow too, you're missing out on money & info if ya don't! → @PolySnipe 🎀
128
10 Nov 2025
Nothing crazy but Sinner W $382 for the @Polymarket portfolio growth as we inch towards $10k
10 Nov 2025
$3500 → $3832 Nothing too interesting or novel about this one Simply placing size on Sinner to win v Auger-Aliassime for the following list of reasons; > It's Sinner
1
229
10 Nov 2025
I do kinda agree with this (tho I have done a bit of the opposite so far) But there also is merit to smaller social accounts going higher risk at the start to gain social exposure whilst lots of eyeballs are on the leaderboard (Re @Hivelive_ genesis $10k tourney)
9 Nov 2025
Don’t risk it for overtrying to get to top 5
1
204
10 Nov 2025
$3500 → $3832 Nothing too interesting or novel about this one Simply placing size on Sinner to win v Auger-Aliassime for the following list of reasons; > It's Sinner
2
1
657
10 Nov 2025
All jokes aside - this is just a safe bankroll builder for the portfolio
1
131
10 Nov 2025
PSA: There is a free 7% on your money there for the taking The only hurdle for Polymarket US to go live in 2025 was this government shutdown ending soon enough Projecting to end by the end of this week meaning the 7% is yours
10 Nov 2025
BREAKING: U.S. Government shutdown now projected to end this Thursday or Friday.
1
1
315
10 Nov 2025
$81,000 → $283,000 if this wins on @Polymarket This user typically places an average trade of $67 But this morning, that changed. He placed an $80,000 bet against the market Predicting that the FED wouldn't decrease interest rates after the December meeting Government insider? Or just a dangerously confident prediction?
1
1
1
150
10 Nov 2025
spoke into existence
10 Nov 2025
Replying to @PolySnipe
fritz in 2
1
167
10 Nov 2025
2-0 fritz, first loss on the tennis learning from mistakes, scouting the market now for more value
10 Nov 2025
I've gone against the market & most people shouting for the other side of the trade here To continue the 100% success rate in tennis trades, here's the next: Musetti to win v Fritz @ 0.33¢ > People claiming Musetti will be tired from his match a few days ago??? They play all day everyday, a 2h match isn't going to KO them > Musetti has won 100% of the time against Fritz in the last 3 years It'll be scrappy but 0.33¢ is too generous, i'll take that
167
10 Nov 2025
I've gone against the market & most people shouting for the other side of the trade here To continue the 100% success rate in tennis trades, here's the next: Musetti to win v Fritz @ 0.33¢ > People claiming Musetti will be tired from his match a few days ago??? They play all day everyday, a 2h match isn't going to KO them > Musetti has won 100% of the time against Fritz in the last 3 years It'll be scrappy but 0.33¢ is too generous, i'll take that
5
5
1,327
10 Nov 2025
hardcourt prevailing, down 0-1 at the moment 🤞
54
10 Nov 2025
GM my favourites types of trades, compounding with larger size on short odds.
110