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Polygon Research @PolygonRE

Mortgage Data Science. Authors of HMDAVision, MBS Pivot, and CensusVision.

Joined September 2017
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Polygon Research
@PolygonRE
Jun 10
In 8 states, at least half of 2026 homebuyers put less than 5% down. Mississippi: 61%. New York: 22%. Massachusetts: 20%. A 3x regional spread, from loan-level Fannie, Freddie & Ginnie data. MBS Pivot, through May 2026
U.S. state map: share of 2026 agency purchase loans with LTV above 95%, YTD through May. Polygon Research MBS Pivot. Eight states at 50% or higher: Mississippi 61, Louisiana 57, Alaska 54, Alabama 54, Oklahoma 53, West Virginia 53, Texas 52, Arkansas 50. Lowest: New York 22, New Jersey 21, Massachusetts 20. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan data.

ALT U.S. state map: share of 2026 agency purchase loans with LTV above 95%, YTD through May. Polygon Research MBS Pivot. Eight states at 50% or higher: Mississippi 61, Louisiana 57, Alaska 54, Alabama 54, Oklahoma 53, West Virginia 53, Texas 52, Arkansas 50. Lowest: New York 22, New Jersey 21, Massachusetts 20. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan data.

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AI gives you plausible answers. Grounded in loan-level data, it gives you true ones. Our CTO, Greg Oliven, explains on the Risk & Roll podcast why factuality and consistency are the whole game in mortgage AI.
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Today, a different question. Conventional purchase loans only — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — share above 95% LTV: Nebraska 18%, Missouri 16%, Indiana 16%. LTV is one dimension — credit score, DTI, and pricing sit behind it in MBS Pivot.
Homebuyers using conventional loans with less than 5% down by state, mapped by Polygon Research. Showing concentration in Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas.

ALT Homebuyers using conventional loans with less than 5% down by state, mapped by Polygon Research. Showing concentration in Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas.

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Learn more about MBS Pivot: polygonresearch.com/mbs-pivo…

MBS Pivot — Agency Mortgage Origination Data by State & Lender | Polygon Research

Unified loan-level data from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Track agency mortgage originations, rates, LTV, credit scores, and lenders monthly.

polygonresearch.com
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Mortgage intelligence in three dimensions. Competition → MBS Pivot Channel → FHA Pivot Opportunity → CPS Pivot One subscription. Monthly updates. No contracts. Free trial: polygonresearch.com/pricing
Polygon Pulse graphic: Competition, Channel, Opportunity — three forces drive mortgage outcomes, one subscription tracks all three. MBS Pivot: agency originations, lender positioning, LLPA heatmaps. FHA Pivot: broker–wholesale relationships by zip code. CPS Pivot: 136M households, labor, tenure, first-time buyer sizing. Free trial, monthly updates, no contracts. polygonresearch.com/pricing

ALT Polygon Pulse graphic: Competition, Channel, Opportunity — three forces drive mortgage outcomes, one subscription tracks all three. MBS Pivot: agency originations, lender positioning, LLPA heatmaps. FHA Pivot: broker–wholesale relationships by zip code. CPS Pivot: 136M households, labor, tenure, first-time buyer sizing. Free trial, monthly updates, no contracts. polygonresearch.com/pricing
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In 8 states, at least half of 2026 homebuyers put less than 5% down. Mississippi: 61%. New York: 22%. Massachusetts: 20%. A 3x regional spread, from loan-level Fannie, Freddie & Ginnie data. MBS Pivot, through May 2026
U.S. state map: share of 2026 agency purchase loans with LTV above 95%, YTD through May. Polygon Research MBS Pivot. Eight states at 50% or higher: Mississippi 61, Louisiana 57, Alaska 54, Alabama 54, Oklahoma 53, West Virginia 53, Texas 52, Arkansas 50. Lowest: New York 22, New Jersey 21, Massachusetts 20. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan data.

ALT U.S. state map: share of 2026 agency purchase loans with LTV above 95%, YTD through May. Polygon Research MBS Pivot. Eight states at 50% or higher: Mississippi 61, Louisiana 57, Alaska 54, Alabama 54, Oklahoma 53, West Virginia 53, Texas 52, Arkansas 50. Lowest: New York 22, New Jersey 21, Massachusetts 20. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan data.

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Explore state-level purchase mortgage data in MBS Pivot: polygonresearch.com/polygon-…

Polygon Pulse

One-stop shop for the latest agency mortgage loan-level originations data, FHA originations, and CPS unemployment data.

polygonresearch.com
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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Nearly 700,000 funded loans. About $239B in origination volume. That is what Polygon Research identified using our loan-level Non-QM classification algorithm on 2025 HMDA data. But Non-QM is not one market. The opportunity looks different by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint. Full analysis: polygonresearch.com/blog/how… #NationalHomeownershipMonth #NonQM #MortgageData
Non-QM mortgage market graphic showing local opportunity by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint.

ALT Non-QM mortgage market graphic showing local opportunity by county, borrower segment, and lender footprint.
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Buyers get the attention. Owners hold the housing stock. Polygon Vision brings that homeownership story down to local markets. polygonresearch.com/polygon-…
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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There is no single homeownership story. Every community has its own mix of borrowers, lenders, affordability pressures, and market gaps. This month, we’ll share ways local mortgage data can make those stories clearer. #NationalHomeownershipMonth #MortgageData #HMDA
National Homeownership Month graphic from Polygon Research showing an open front door and welcome mat. Text reads: “Every community has a different homeownership story.” The graphic highlights 3,200 counties, 84,000 census tracts, and 23,000 zip codes mapped and analyzed with Polygon Vision.

ALT National Homeownership Month graphic from Polygon Research showing an open front door and welcome mat. Text reads: “Every community has a different homeownership story.” The graphic highlights 3,200 counties, 84,000 census tracts, and 23,000 zip codes mapped and analyzed with Polygon Vision.
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Housing finance data is scattered across the value chain. We connect it. 120 seconds on how.
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2025 mortgage market (1–4 family units): $4.6T in application volume. 49% YoY. Polygon Research turns HMDA into strategic intelligence. polygonresearch.com
Polygon Research 2025 mortgage market infographic: $4.6T in application volume ( 49% YoY), 11.9M applications ( 9%), 6.8M originations ( 10%), $2.14T origination volume ( 17%). Lists Polygon Research capabilities and three product suites — Polygon Vision, Polygon Pulse, Polygon Risk. Tagline: The Shape of Mortgage Intelligence. Source: HMDAVision.

ALT Polygon Research 2025 mortgage market infographic: $4.6T in application volume ( 49% YoY), 11.9M applications ( 9%), 6.8M originations ( 10%), $2.14T origination volume ( 17%). Lists Polygon Research capabilities and three product suites — Polygon Vision, Polygon Pulse, Polygon Risk. Tagline: The Shape of Mortgage Intelligence. Source: HMDAVision.
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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2025 mortgage market (1–4 family units): $4.6T in application volume. 49% YoY. Polygon Research turns HMDA into strategic intelligence. polygonresearch.com
Polygon Research 2025 mortgage market infographic: $4.6T in application volume ( 49% YoY), 11.9M applications ( 9%), 6.8M originations ( 10%), $2.14T origination volume ( 17%). Lists Polygon Research capabilities and three product suites — Polygon Vision, Polygon Pulse, Polygon Risk. Tagline: The Shape of Mortgage Intelligence. Source: HMDAVision.

ALT Polygon Research 2025 mortgage market infographic: $4.6T in application volume ( 49% YoY), 11.9M applications ( 9%), 6.8M originations ( 10%), $2.14T origination volume ( 17%). Lists Polygon Research capabilities and three product suites — Polygon Vision, Polygon Pulse, Polygon Risk. Tagline: The Shape of Mortgage Intelligence. Source: HMDAVision.
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Non-QM is no longer a side market. Polygon Research identified 697,605 Non-QM loans in 2025, representing $239.3B in origination volume. More than 1 in 10 originations by count. Loan-level intelligence shows what is driving the growth. Guide: polygonresearch.com/blog/how…
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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Non-QM is not one national market. Explore free state-level Non-QM reports covering loan volume, borrower demand, growth, and leading lenders. polygonresearch.com/non-qm-m…
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Where are the opportunity markets for Hispanic homebuyers? @NAHREP 's Jaimie Smeraski didn't guess. She scored them — using actual transactions, real borrower incomes, tract-level data. Here's how she did it. 👇 #HispanicHomeownership #HMDAVision
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