I journal on my stock positions before buying. Mag7 Product leader. Concentrated portfolio and evidence-based research. Follow along on my transparent journey

Joined February 2023
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Ladies and Gentlemen, I crossed over 1,000 followers🚀🎉🎉 I'm genuinely excited about the milestone and appreciative of the community that helped me get here. As a recap of what this account is about and who I am: - I post evidence-backed theses on stocks before I buy them. I want you and my future self to see what went through my head when I made the decision. - My goal is to be a voice of transparency, grounded assessment and reason. I made this account partly to combat the many accounts on social media that only hype stocks, pump and dump, shill and all while charging you monthly fees. - Posting actual positions is crucial. I see too many people on X stating they're buying $100K of this and $500K of that, without receipts. I post my positions and % of portfolio the stock occupies openly. - Performance is important, but I don't want it to become my identity. My 3Y cumulative is >250% (vs SPY 86%) and annualized averaged >50%. It is not as impressive as other X accounts, but with me you know exactly how and why I got there, with nothing hidden behind a paywall or cryptic messaging. Welcome and follow along the journey!
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$RIVN RJ mentions data flywheel which enables them to roll out features. Let me simplify: 1. Rivian cars driven today feed their large driving model, which ingests massive amounts of data, synthesizes it and engineering team uses it to further improve their autonomous performance. More miles driven = more data = more intelligent driving. All of your conscious and unconscious decisions made while driving is captured and iterated upon. This is basically how unsupervised driving is even possible for them without having access to the millions of miles driven by Tesla cars 2. Data flywheel goes one layer upstream and starts at the factory floor. All production data from Rivian plans feed their in-house manufacturing robots to improve their utility and productivity. This contributes to making R2 a profitable car In the age of AI, the most important IP is now proprietary data, with the right data you can make even a “dumber” (ie smaller parameter) LLM perform better than frontier models. It’s analogous to a healthcare clinic training an open source model with their proprietary CAT/MRI scan images. They’re the only ones who can feed it because they own the data and the LLM trained on it performs better than frontier models because frontiers don’t have the same access. x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/2…

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Breakfast at home with Turkish coffee Happy Sunday everyone ☀️
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You should never measure yourself against a known outcome. It’s just a terrible exercise.
Super-Investor Li Lu held 11,400,000 shares of Micron. In 2023, he sold 100%. If he still held this position, it would be worth over $11 billion dollars today. $MU
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$ADBE needs an exciting and innovative new CEO to redefine the product offering to become AI-native, revisit their subscription model that’s hated by consumers and have its Amazon fulfillment —> AWS like pivot to survive. The status quo cannot be accepted
I do wonder if $ADBE will lever up like $CRM to buy back its own shares 8x FCF and current authorization would retire 30% of the market cap 🤔
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Good morning $RIVN shareholders☀️ Any news I missed? Market is so far red at 0.2% drop so it seems like there’s some backstage price movement occurring with Rivian
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The worst part about this article is that $ADBE truly is executing and delivering the whole product value as stated. But at the end of the day, it didn’t matter, expectations are too high, and the stock continues to suffer. It was $290 at the time of writing this article
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One of the bear statements from my days as Yandex investor is that because it was a “Russian” company it would always carry some geopolitical risk, similar to Chinese companies. I can definitively say that with $NBIS inducted into NASDAQ 100 - that risk is totally invalidated
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Very strange how market now interprets $ADBE nowadays. > 13% YoY rev >Tripled AI ARR to $500M YoY >Raised guidance I’m very glad to be investing during these times. Learning so much about how powerful sentiment changes. How a growing company becomes a value trap overnight
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What’s more attractive to you right now? $META for capturing and monetizing a dominant share of the worlds user base Or $ORCL for going big and building out infra to deliver compute at unprecedented scale?
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“Never doubt me nephew” Honestly I follow just for that.
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Replying to @131pepe69
what is rjc good at
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Bought more $RIVN today We’re in it for the long haul
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I log in excited to see 6 notifications and I'm met with this bullshit If I complain to Nikita he's going to say enable verified replies only when 80% of my following is unverified.
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Man, I understand how this looks to $META bulls but speaking from experience I’m just truly skeptical and I think there will be pain upcoming. Zuck now launched Business Agent, paid Plus subscriptions, and Muse Spark its overhauled proprietary LLM just this year. The amount of go to market strategy, user research, establishing relationships with customer segments and making meaningful progress towards monetization without degraded customer experience is going to be astronomically difficult. The more fronts you open to do battle, the more stretched your resources, your intelligence and manpower and you risk losing on all those fronts. I hope I’m wrong. Long term though, Meta bulls will be fine.
$META getting ready to attack e-commerce with AI agents. The opportunity is truly here with the new tech shift, now it is all about execution.
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If you don’t believe what I wrote on why I’m bullish for @coinbase as the future enabler of the agentic economy and payment platform. Read it here from their Head of Infrastructure yourself $COIN
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If you guys reeled today you’re over levered.
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I’m struggling between deciding if $TOST is opportunity cost or a waiting game. Waiting for sentiment to shift while knowing my money can give gains in other sectors is like continuously missing a bus that can take you to your destination but you bought tickets for another.
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Buying more $COIN here Never doubt a bald founder
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$COIN is boldly building the rails of Base, USDC, and its x402 protocol that already power over 90% of on-chain agentic volume. They will dominate the machine economy where trillions flow autonomously. I will shamelessly quote-tweet this in the future to show I was right.
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The biggest innovations that could have been worth hundreds of billions, but failed: - $AAPL Siri, if they had actually made it more intuitive. They had access to billions of data points on questions asked and logs - $AMZN Alexa, in millions of home and could have influenced shopping decisions proactively. Instead it could only tell weather and turn on lights for years - $META Instagram search experience, if they tried to mimic Google search algorithm then that unlocks millions of creators content to be viewed by people who want to learn how to cook, how to do house repairs, how to learn a skill or concept. Instead you can barely find an account, unless you know their full login
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Upcoming catalysts that I believe may be not priced in for $RIVN -Management announces their fully sold out for R2 in 2026 -$250M from Uber post launch in SF and Miami -$1B from Volkswagen later in year -Autonomy progress updates: point to point (hands/eyes off) by 2027
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