22 y/o small-time stock operator. Contributor @Aurelionrsch. All independent work published publicly and freely. Not financial advice!

Joined July 2022
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The 6th most visited website on the internet, $RDDT, is still dramatically under-monetized. I think they’re going to 7x operating profit by 2028. In about 20 minutes, this free writeup will tell you exactly how that’s going to happen. Link below.
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
New York: destroying their city Boston: partying with Scotland
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$ADBE is currently trading almost exactly at 10x EV / LTM FCF (ex-SBC)
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
Abaxx - Not Even Worth A Crumb Viceroy is short Abaxx $ABXX. The Exchange is comprised of wash-traded churn sustained by incentives, which collapses the moment incentives are switched off. There is limited genuine hedging activity or price discovery supporting this façade. 1/
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
I'm don't know how to analyse exchanges, but I look at track records. Here are the publically listed companies $ABXX CEO Josh Crumb has been involved in. 1. Founded Goldmoney $XAU: Started as a Peter Schiff promoted Gold based Fintech, pivoted to Crypto in the 2017 boom.
Abaxx - Not Even Worth A Crumb Viceroy is short Abaxx $ABXX. The Exchange is comprised of wash-traded churn sustained by incentives, which collapses the moment incentives are switched off. There is limited genuine hedging activity or price discovery supporting this façade. 1/
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
i wonder if hunter biden has ever heard of 140 dubstep
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It’s interesting, $RDDT is already poaching people from Meta in measurement and feed/algorithm dynamics. I wonder if some of these people laid off end up applying straight to Reddit.
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Rumor: Meta to layoff another 8k in November
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
🚨 Kneat $KSI.TO to be Acquired by US Private Equity Firm Thoma Bravo 🚨 The $6.50/share all-cash offer values Kneat at $650 million, or about 8.5x ARR. It represents a 40% premium over the unaffected share price before Kneat disclosed an ongoing strategic review last month. High-quality software firms can still fetch attractive valuations amid the chaos in the sector!
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
$meta trading at less than 15x core GAAP EBIT LTM. If Zuck wasn’t top 5 current worst CEO rn this is easiest long of all time
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ALT Dog Relieving GIF

GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030 Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B. AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
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$RDDT confirms search ads are coming:
Likely within the next handful of quarters, Reddit $RDDT will begin rolling out Google-like search ads. Over the past year Reddit has been shipping basic QoL improvements to search, and now, basic search and Reddit's AI-summary offering, Reddit Answers, have been combined into one search surface, with improved visibility and utility. These are my refined estimates for Reddit's search ad revenue potential: as enhancements and search visibility stack in the next few quarters, I think we see an uptick in search volumes and searches per user. Assuming the program begins in Q3 2026, I've set ad load at 15%, lower than Google's average platform ad load, and CPC and CTRs also well lower than Google averages. Based off these estimates, search ads could contribute another $180-200mm in topline by 2028, carrying very low incremental costs. People say Reddit will never be able to monetize like $META, and I do agree with that sentiment, I'd be very surprised to ever see their ARPU pass Meta's. Meta has better targeting, double the ad load, and rich full-screen video ads that their advertisers are very skilled at creating engaging content for. But I don't think Reddit needs to *be* Meta to continue growing ad revenue at surprising rates. Meta doesn't have a data licensing line, they won't have a search ads line. Considering these factors and other potential monetization opportunities down the line, I still think Reddit is very well positioned to close a lot of the gap between their ARPU and Meta's, bringing the two figures closer than a lot of people today are assuming.
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At the 64-day (QTD) average price, $RDDT has repurchased $150mm worth of shares this quarter, 15% of their $1Bn buyback authorization, and about 0.5% of S/O. If $RDDT wants to exhaust its entire remaining buyback authorization, at current prices they could shrink S/O by a further 2.3%. Management basically telling us they think the stock is a good deal, and that they are serious about turning their rapidly growing cash flow into cold, hard shareholder capital returns.
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
Financial infrastructure is on sale. $CME $CBOE $ICE
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
1/ $CME - LONG! The world's largest derivatives exchange and the clearinghouse for global rates, energy and ag risk. A toll booth on hedging itself, and the stock is now sitting at 52-week lows despite record results. Q1'26: record revenue $1.88B, adjusted EPS $3.36 ( 20%). Quality on sale.
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$CME yielding 4.5% this year (probably, half the dividend is variable) has to be some kind of good deal. Rarely under 20x fwd earnings
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
$PTC seems criminally underrated in current software discussion, for such a cash producing, AI resistant business that arguably has quite a few things going for it at the moment: - Has real cash flow, guiding to 1Bn in 2026 on 19Bn EV (~800mm ex SBC) - Divesting lower-margin assets in H1 ‘26 (160m ARR shrinking 1%, sold to PE for 365mm minimum net proceeds, ~10x FCF multiple). 365mm minimum net proceeds, PE sale earnout could up that to ~500mm - Divestiture proceeds to be plowed into 2Bn buyback authorization through 2027, midpoint estimate ~200mm/quarter in 2026, easily lapping SBC dilution with potential ~4% decrease in s/o through 2027 assuming mgmt target of 50% of FCF to share reductions - Grows a slow but steady 8-9% annually at 2.75Bn ARR but critically manages expenses to 4% growth annually, generating 50% incremental EBIT margins. Half of sales growth is pricing with 3-5% annual escalators - Seemingly rather high quality of earnings, avg. contract term shifted up from 2 —> 3 years between Q4 ‘24 and ‘25. Multiple products taking share, PLM (Windchill) ARR growth of 11% compared to ~8% expected for that market (from some online sources). Codebeamer ALM also doing fairly well it seems? They also run CAD through Creo and Onshape which appears to be at least holding share. Investing some into new features of core products - Vanishingly low capex, guided to 1% of sales in 2026 and 2/3 of that is one-time relocation of an RnD center to a new office. Beyond capex, historically they have been an acquirer and have guided to bolt-on acquisitions as a use of capital in addition to repurchases - Seems like can grow FCF at 15% for at least a few years under pretty simple assumptions, trades at 20x EPS. Slow but steady wins the race? Anyone have pushback?
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
Baby has gotten good at identifying “dada” but still struggling with surrealism, cubism, even baroque.
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Welfare Capital (Jack) retweeted
“An anomaly.”
We experienced an anomaly during today's hotfire test. All personnel have been accounted for. We will provide updates as we learn more.
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