Joined November 2025
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Offshore prediction markets are unregulated and illegal.
@HarryDCrane’s groundbreaking research quantifies just how many Americans are using them. It also highlights the exponential growth regulated exchanges have seen over the same period
Jun 11
Research Brief: Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction Markets
Key Findings:
- $ 11-27B of Polymarket volume May 2025-April 2026 is attributed to U.S. users
- $ 11-34B of all offshore volume came from U.S. users
Full report below:
cranezeng.com/prediction-mar…
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Read more here: harrycrane.substack.com/p/an…
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A new study gives insights into how many Americans trade on illegal, offshore prediction markets. There’s a key finding in the research: federally regulated markets are growing at significantly faster rates.
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More on what the study found: wired.com/story/polymarket-s…
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Americans are using VPNs to access unregulated, offshore prediction market platforms that offer contracts on death and war.
Now, we finally know how big this market is. New data from @harrydcrane shows this could be a $133 billion problem:
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Here’s the good news: Under the @CFTC, regulated exchanges grew 4.8x faster than offshore in 2024-25.
But this progress isn't guaranteed. If we restrict regulated platforms here, traders don't stop trading. They just go offshore.
If that happens, U.S.-based trading on offshore platforms could reach $133 billion annually by 2030.
That’s bigger than America's video game and recorded music industries. COMBINED.
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The full report is out now.
All data is from publicly available datasets via @Dune: cranezeng.com/prediction-mar…
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The CFTC’s proposed rules demonstrate the importance of strong, federal regulation. Our Coalition welcomes their commitment to protecting consumers and empowering American markets.
The CFTC is the right cop on the beat, and we look forward to continuing to work with the agency to support fair, transparent exchanges.
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Markets for the people. ⚡
Jun 2
At Robinhood we believe in expanding access to the financial tools that allow people to manage their economic future, and we see prediction markets as an emerging tool that allows people to take views on or hedge against events that impact them. youtu.be/fcJmS9yES9E
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This is the future.
Prediction markets empowering small businesses.
Jun 3
A Manhattan bar is using Kalshi as an insurance policy for a free-drinks promotion based on whether or not the Knicks win the first game of the Finals. This is the hedge-on-everything future prediction markets want. nymag.com/intelligencer/arti…
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Prediction markets are just getting started 💯
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Read more at: reuters.com/legal/government…
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Prediction markets belong to the people.
From public school teachers to parents, traders turn lifelong passions into a genuine edge in predicting the future.
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Hear directly from the traders who know these markets best: nytimes.com/2026/05/26/magaz…
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Prediction markets are reshaping the way we navigate what's next.
@a16zcrypto with a must-read on why our markets matter ⬇️
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We agree, @BloombergLaw. Bad actors need to know that suspicious activity will be caught and addressed.
That’s why we have federal regulation, real-time surveillance, customer verification, rulebooks reviewed by the federal government, and strict bans on insider trading.
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Read more at: news.bloomberglaw.com/legal-…
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Strange. We were reliably informed by the casino lobby that sports don't affect the economy 🤔
Jun 3
*MAMDANI: KNICKS POSTSEASON GENERATED $202M IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
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