It is still early in Election Day reporting, but Graham is running about 5 points behind his early-vote mark and sits at 59.3%. Early vote from favorable counties should help, but a finish closer to 55% remains plausible.
A runoff is unlikely, but not impossible.
So far, Graham is doing worse in the Election Day vote in many of the counties we’ve looked at, meaning this race could narrow as more E-Day vote come in.