Joined September 2025
- Tweets 127
- Following 1
- Followers 5,465
- Likes 766
34 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Feb 10
Introducing Parity, your edge in prediction markets.
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Apr 14
See top traders for any polymarket. Live on all market pages.
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Apr 12
Every trade has a counterparty on Polymarket. Now you can see exactly who they are.
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Parity retweeted
Apr 12
Bots are the only traders consistently making money on @Polymarket.
Here are some key insights from Parity:
1. The traders:
• 2.4M total traders
• 31% are profitable
• 53% lost between $1-$100 and never came back
2. The bots:
• 5,785 bot accounts have ~40% of all volume
• Combined PnL from bots is $104M
3. The biggest losers:
• 35 traders each lost over $2M
• 28 quit the platform
• 7 are still trading
Prediction market or not, the outcome distribution looks exactly like every other trading venue.
Remember this if you're thinking about trading prediction markets.
Data from @PredictParity.
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Apr 11
You can filter to just see bots by clicking the bot icon.
predictparity.com/traders?bo…
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Apr 10
The US x Iran ceasefire happened April 7.
The market is still open due to an oracle dispute.
The best traders on Polymarket already know how this resolves and are buying millions
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Apr 9
Prediction markets revenue ( April 1-7 )
1. @Kalshi $31m
2. @Polymarket $7.1m
3. @cryptocom $1.5m
4. @trylimitless $275k
5. @IBKR $78k
This is the first full week of Polymarkets new fees.
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Apr 7
We have tagged 5,785 bots on Polymarket.
Cumulative PnL: $104,962,353
Fun fact: these 5,785 bots make up 39.9% of Polymarket's total volume.
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Apr 7
You can filter to just see bots by clicking the bot icon.
predictparity.com/traders?bo…
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Apr 5
The 35 biggest losers on Polymarket have each lost over $2M each
28 of them quit.
7 are still trading.
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Apr 3
Prediction Market volume by category: March
Total Notional Volume $24.1B
1. Sports 56.7%
2. Crypto 17.8%
3. Politics 12.4%
4. Other 8.2%
5. Culture 1.7%
6. Economy 1.4%
7. Weather 0.9%
8. Business 0.6%
9. Tech 0.2%
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Apr 2
Insiders on Polymarket have won millions of dollars.
We analyzed the trading behavior of the top 23 insiders.
these are the leading indicators.
1. 65% used a account less then 30 days old
2. 70% used market orders (taker orders)
3. 75% traded only 1 market
4. 60% bought at odds under $0.50
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Apr 2
0xee50a31c3f5a7c77824b12a941a54388a2827ed6
Google Top Person
0xe5bd36fc97a0bfc002bd2a8afc7616b1074637e7
MicroStrategy
0xe56526b27b96f009b31ddb46558a134047bfce48
Axiom
0x0afc7ce56285bde1fbe3a75efaffdfc86d6530b2
Israel War
0xc284a6a980e12412923a91e688795c7b9a3655db
Eric Adams
0x279e61370ded678258c659fcbfebc8caf0008f57
US Strikes Syria
0xdb1669e2a3ad3f42d16ad0a8123c03e1edf634e6
Lord Miles
0x80c5b2b9d09808bf015bdbd377b3f32f7029333d
Military Insider
0xe2196e855c0d7583016f002c917d2d2776c3a125
MrBeast Water
0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9524cdb8ed9
DidiTrading
0x40d9ac81a425f14d2c490c41ac8969c0cbcfd472
Super Bowl Halftime Show
0xa0f8b626bf42c179ccfb8abd67aba00f1363b80d
Pikachu Sale
0xd226c7d4de015e5102b732485eac1d9bbc8b7fe9
Monad Airdrop
0x55ea982cebff271722419595e0659ef297b48d7c
FlaccidWillie
0x56f6f41b83e77fbac673f6fcba2595d5af1377ce
US Strikes Iran
0xfa53065aeda716621f6e2939bea2a00d75cd0149
NFL MVP
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Mar 30
Does more volume make prediction markets more accurate?
Not really.
Looking at 22,527 markets across Kalshi and Polymarket accuracy doesn’t scale linearly with volume.
One clear pattern:
Very high volume markets ($1M ) are well calibrated on both platforms.
*methodology
• Brier Score used (lower = better, 0.25 = random)
• Market prices 1 day before resolution
• Markets used had 30 days days of data
• Excluded sports and crypto
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Mar 26
The best time to trade prediction markets (most volume) is from 2PM-10PM EST
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