I went through every earnings call across the entire 800G and 1.6T supply chain and mapped out the actual supply vs. demand.
The
$LITE CEO said it best: "We are significantly under shipping demand. It's certainly greater than that 30% number. We are having to make choices as to who we support."
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$LITE has every laser it can make through the end of 2027 already sold.
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$AAOI is expanding capacity 10x and the CEO still said demand will outrun it through mid-2027.
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$FN said demand far exceeded what they shipped last quarter. Named lasers as the first constraint.
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$CIEN added $600M to its backlog in a single quarter. Now sitting at $7.7B.
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$CSCO raised its hyperscaler AI order guidance from $5B to $9B mid-year with one quarter left. That is purchase orders. Not projections.
Full report is free to read. Link in replies or link in bio.