My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @ForeignAffairs foreignaffairs.com/iran/horm…

Obviously have to wait and see actual details of any deal but if it's anything close to this it is no wonder Trump has been so reluctant to agree to it. -Iran has made pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons many times, including in the JCPOA. -The Strait was already open without tolls before the war. -Iran was already negotiating over HEU and centrifuges before the war. -Unfrozen assets and licenses to sell oil, even if initially limited, will provide regime revenue it didn't have before the war. --The only way to get agreement on the nuclear issues will be to provide (significantly) more economic relief. -The deal does not address ballistic missiles or proxies--for which the JCPOA was heavily criticized. -In fact it depends on Israel *not* attacking Hezbollah. -Nor does it free American detainees (which was at least a meaningful tradeoff for the "pallets of cash" that were in any case a fraction of the economic relief Trump will give Iran.) -Far from helping Iranian protestors, as Trump pledged, the deal leaves them in an impoverished country and in the hands of a vengeful and repressive regime. These are not reasons to oppose a deal that would provide a chance to end the war and open the Strait but they underscore how badly the war has backfired and explain why Trump has been so hesitant to end it on these terms.

"It is clear that Iran went to school on the U.S. way of war and understands how to leverage its limited assets to strike at the heart of U.S. power projection capabilities both on land and at sea." @ProfTalmadge and Mara Karlin write: brook.gs/3RZGeIF

Delighted to share this @BrookingsFP piece with Mara Karlin on the long-term military implications of the Iran war. brookings.edu/articles/the-e…

Will people finally stop calling this a ceasefire now? A ceasefire that requires regular strikes and salvos is like a vegetarian who eats steak on weekends

“Iran’s decisions show they believe they have the upper hand, with Trump deterred from renewing the fighting." wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…

Are the final negotiations on peace in the room with us now

Iran appears to be entering the extended deterrence business. "Where it once used allies such as Hezbollah to insulate itself from conflict with Israel, it is now fighting Israel directly to defend its allies, Citrinowicz said." wsj.com/world/middle-east/tr…

Clearest sign yet that Iran doesn't believe it lost this war. Bodes very poorly for any deal-making with US. nytimes.com/2026/06/08/world…

"The damage seen at US facilities suggests that Tehran's counter-attacks have been more precise and extensive than American officials have previously acknowledged." bbc.com/news/articles/c2l2yl…

"A nuclear deal focusing only on enrichment and stockpiles can no longer address the problem. A good agreement must now also account for Iran’s improved enrichment technology, its potential for covert enrichment activities, and its ability to convert enriched uranium into deployable weapons." foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

Great that US says it has destroyed 90% of Iran's mine inventory, but: - battle damage assessment in this war has been less than stellar - that still leaves Iran with 800 mines, a significant capability if they can be deployed - Russia has a lot of mines it could sell to Iran

It's remarkable that any of these sites were intact after a 40-day air war. Had Iran's threats to close the Strait been taken seriously, one would imagine the US prioritizing these target from Day 1, not mopping them up 2 months later during a faux ceasefire. wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-wa…

Awkward lead in to the Trump-Xi summit...

Good news, but the fact that this happened in the first place points to growing Saudi buyer's remorse on the Iran war. wsj.com/world/middle-east/sa…

The naval blockade against Iran is a contest over who can withstand the pain longer-- Iran in the form of reduced oil revenue and industry damage, US in the form of higher oil prices and sustained naval campaign. New CIA analysis suggests time may be on Iran's side. washingtonpost.com/national-…

“They were hoping to get by on the cheap by essentially having these warships go out and show that there was a clear channel. It pretty quickly was clear that it was not safe enough.” wsj.com/world/middle-east/pr…