Husband; dad; author, “Only the Dead” (is.gd/lD5FjX). Computational social scientist. Political Science, OSU. Fellow, AAAS. Tweets -30d. Also @sciences.social
Just talked to Governor DeWine about a possible August election. Despite opposition to an August election from Ohio elections officials, he says he'll sign a bill to create it if lawmakers approve it. More on that later.
Given his remarks about “TruthGPT,” I’m horrified at the possibility that any of his thoughts on AI will be taken seriously by anyone in any position of power.
It has been an amazing run at @FiveThirtyEight but I was laid off today. I have deeply loved working on this team. My editors and coworkers past and present have been amazing and I have done so much work at this site that I am incredibly proud of. Anybody need a science writer?
Prepping for a talk at All Souls College at @UniofOxford today, on the subject of the decline-of-war debate and what comes next. Hard to focus on the presentation in the midst of all this incredible architecture.
What a delightful trip! Great student questions, stimulating conversations with #StathisKalyvas, an @anneapplebaum talk, and the chance to chat with the speaker after dinner at the High Table. @UniofOxford set an awfully high bar for the rest of us.
Sen. Cirino announces that there were more than 500 testimonies submitted in opposition to SB 83. We're being told that's a Senate record! Incredible!
#StopSB83
OK. I've updated this story a lot. We've got former GOP Govs. Bob Taft, John Kasich and former Dem Govs Celeste, Ted Strickland, all opposed to the 60% threshold for Ohio constitutional amendments. cleveland.com/news/2023/04/f…
Few people in the West have heard of Basij - but they might be the most important group in Iran.
Excited to present my research on how US policy inadvertently fueled their rise. Join us virtually tomorrow for OSU's 2023 Military Frontiers Symposium!
mershoncenter.osu.edu/events…
Lots of people seem to have had big expectations about the Fox News case. Important to remember that the plaintiff was Dominion, not the American people or the Democratic Party. They didn’t admit to anything because Dominion preferred cash.
This new book, by Shan and @Jon_Williamson_ makes a case for evidential pluralism, the idea that causal claims require evidence of the existence of a correlation & a mechanism. This way of thinking is key to mixed methods research.
For Open Access ➡️ taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-m…
This is worth appreciating: when the danger is clear, leadership in both the US and China want to avoid escalation.
Unfortunately, the main trend in the relationship is confrontational dynamics that don’t pose an immediate danger but will eventually lead to serious conflict.
An odd thing just happened: the US worked hard behind the scenes over recent weeks to avert a repeat of the Pelosi visit furore, & then didn't really tell anyone — and so got no credit.
My @straits_times latest on the Taiwan Straits crisis that wasn't — and a short 🧵
Years ago I attended @Prof_BearB methods modules at IQMR and the covered material is still with me. Not only great scholar, but also great teacher.
P.S. I hope that the entertaining/funny slides are still a thing 😅
"Teaching theoretical modeling in the social sciences is rare, and its rarity is odd. Theoretical models convey the fundamental domain knowledge of most disciplines. Yet few social science departments teach students how to build new ones." Essay here: tinyurl.com/HDTBFB
Bear Braumoeller @Prof_BearB will be teaching a short course on theoretical modeling in the social sciences this summer. This is the sort of course we need. And Braumoeller is the one of the best people I can think of to teach it.👇
"Teaching theoretical modeling in the social sciences is rare, and its rarity is odd. Theoretical models convey the fundamental domain knowledge of most disciplines. Yet few social science departments teach students how to build new ones." Essay here: tinyurl.com/HDTBFB
"Once students become “beta theorists” (i.e., their theories take the form y=Xß), they develop instincts that are antithetical to theorizing, like adding more variables when fewer are needed, or ‘explaining’ by accounting for as much detail as possible." tinyurl.com/HDTBFB
Hi there #twitterstorians and #IR folks! We’re the @oxmartinschool Programme on Changing Global Orders – a new research programme at the History/IR intersection. We want to rethink global order and international institutions in turbulent times: oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/changi… 1/10
It occurred to me that algorithmic bias might have some upsides for social scientists, in that it gives us an unintentional window into how humans on the internet see the world. So I tried giving Midjourney some one-word prompts. Results at sciences.social/@Prof_BearB/…