AJ Russell's final today against the RiverDogs. 2.2 IP // 0 R // 2 H // 2 BB // 4 SO // 8 whiffs 53/31 strikes

A start to immediately flush from the memory bank for Jack Leiter this evening against the Red Sox. Jack went 5 innings, allowing 8 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, and struck out 3 on 103 pitches. I’ve got some thoughts on this one and beyond I want to share, so let’s just get right into it. Back around 2024, way before I started this account, I spent a majority of my free time on the Rangers subreddit trying to get people to better understand pitching development and defending Jack Leiter specifically in that regard. So in a throwback to my beginnings, I want to try and provide some nuanced discussion tonight. It’s probably always a good sign when the first paragraph of analysis is a preface, making sure people know I’m not trying to gaslight anyone. I just feel it necessary to do so tonight simply because of the type of discourse I’m seeing seemingly everywhere I look. I can’t really blame anyone, but it’s just a reminder of how often we’re prisoners of the moment. I’m guilty of this as well. I’ve had my fair share of bad takes in my day. Using Jack specifically, back in 2024 the main consensus in baseball media was that Jack Leiter was destined for the backend of the bullpen. Then flashback to last spring, Jack added a sinker and switched his changeup grip to the kick-change. He performs phenomenally in spring and suddenly the consensus has swung back to that he has front end rotation potential. Then he struggles after he comes back from his blister and it flips again. “Oh he’ll never figure it out.” “Typical Leiter collapse.” “He’ll be a great middle reliever.” I’ve heard it all. Then he has his phenomenal second half of the 2025 season, and the pendulum swung right back with people saying he’s figured it out and that he’s going to be the ace once deGrom and Eovaldi retire. Which then takes us to current day, where we once again find ourselves with people saying that Jack will never figure it out, he’s regressed, or that last year was just a fluke and this is who he is. Growth in general is never linear, and it’s no different when it comes to pitching development. When you’re on a great run of form you’re never as good as you think you are, and when you’re in a slump you’re never as bad as you think you are. It’s not really that simple to think that just because Jack struggled in 2024 and had a lot of success in 2025 that he will never struggle again. That’s not how baseball works, and more importantly that’s not how life works. I don’t want it to sound like I’m trying to lecture anyone or that I’m coming from some kind of moral high ground. It’s normal and expected for fans of the team to be frustrated when things don’t go well. I’ve been guilty of a few crash outs in my day as well. The goal isn’t to tell everyone they’re overreacting or incorrect for feeling a certain way, but I’m just trying to provide a bit of perspective that it doesn’t always have to be “well what have you done for me lately,” when it comes to analyzing player development. I should probably analyze today’s outing since that’s my whole thing after all, so let’s talk about it. Command was the word of the day from the first pitch. 5 straight fastballs to start the game and they were all balls. I’ve said time and time again that Jack’s outings live and die by his fastball command, and we definitely saw the latter today. I actually thought it was a very odd outing from Jack in the sense that it felt like for a majority of the evening, he had great command of each of his pitches except for his fastball which was some of the worst command I’ve seen from Jack on that pitch. There were moments in the 5th inning where he lost that secondary command a bit, and that’s sort of when it all started to go downhill. It sort of feels like I’m just parroting the same points over and over again, but I don’t think it makes them any less true. Changeup shape is still inconsistent, still not enough cutters and sinkers, too many sliders leads to it getting crushed, etc. It felt like there were several times that Jack really got bad batted ball luck, but at the same time you can’t really cry unlucky when your command is as poor as it was. Jack will figure it out. He has all the talent in the world, and a good head on his shoulders. I know this was more “dear diary” than purely objective analysis, so if you feel I’m wrong in any way then let me know. I welcome further discussion on anything I said.

Malcolm Moore just walked it off for Hub City with his 10th HR of the season.

Caden Scarborough vs the Tourists today: 3.2 IP // 0 R // 2 H // 1 BB // 7 SO 10 whiffs 62/43 strikes