I build a macroeconomic trading algorithm. Solo founder.
Joined January 2026
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Jun 14
There's a war choking the Strait of Hormuz and Brent is down ~17% in a month.
Read that again. The whole market was positioned for an oil spike.
Here's what my system flagged this week 🧵
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Everyone's bracing for the miner capitulation. Price near $64k, extreme fear, the second-largest difficulty cut of the year. The boring number nobody checks is the power bill, and it says the forced sellers aren't actually forced. The oldest reflex in mining keeps failing this cycle.
open.substack.com/pub/protoc…
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Jun 17
The carry unwind everyone feared didn't show. BoJ hiked to 1%, yen firmed toward 160 orderly, not a break. Crypto's the tell: BTC reclaimed 66k off the 59k low, fear easing. The canary that should've degrossed first is bid instead.
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Jun 16
Everyone's pricing the ceasefire as risk-on. The cleanest contradiction is insider money: $100.7M absorbed at a single name while the tape rallies on half volume. Full breakdown with the regime-shift levels in today's brief.
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Jun 15
The BoJ hike is the most telegraphed catalyst of the week, which is exactly why the decision carries no edge. The reaction does. DAEMON sits in its stressed zone, miners already squeezed. 2024 cascaded because it was a surprise. Watch the yen and the curve, not the print.
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Jun 14
There's a war choking the Strait of Hormuz and Brent is down ~17% in a month.
Read that again. The whole market was positioned for an oil spike.
Here's what my system flagged this week 🧵
1
37
Jun 14
Open question for the timeline:
Where's the biggest mispricing into next week the oil premium that won't fully drain, the yen carry trade everyone calls "fine," or the liquidity quietly leaving the system under a green tape?
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Jun 14
Daily briefs with the decomposed indices, live trigger levels, and position tracking → protocol7.ai
Free weekly deep-dive drops Wednesday on the Substack.
open.substack.com/pub/protoc…
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Jun 12
Equities closed green while crypto sentiment sits in extreme fear. That kind of divergence doesn't hold quietly it resolves violently once the energy binary clears. The decomposition and the levels that flip it are in today's brief.
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Jun 10
Everyone's fixated on this morning's CPI headline. The real story is the vol curve already inverted ahead of it near-term hedging outpacing longer-dated. AlphaScout in active velocity, bearish tilt. The premium is priced before the number prints. I'm watching the gamma flip, not the headline.
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The BTC bounce isn't a bottom. Price recovered toward $64k but stalled right under the 200-day m second bounce in a downtrend, not a reversal. ETFs still bled $1.72B last week and the squeeze cleared $539M of shorts, not fresh bids. CPI lands tomorrow. Full breakdown with the levels in this morning's brief.
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Everyone's calling the tech selloff a fundamentals story. It's discount-rate math: the 2Y at 4.16% and 10Y back above 4.5% crush the longest-duration equities first that's why semis bled while banks ripped. AlphaScout active, geopolitical pipeline maxed. I'm watching the curve, not the headlines.
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Everyone's watching the oil price drop. The real story is the gap underneath it: WTI and Brent both -3% on ceasefire hopes while the physical barrel stays tight. AlphaScout in moderate velocity, geopolitical pipeline elevated. Paper faded the premium. Physical didn't.
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Bitcoin is down ~50% from its October high and stablecoin supply just drained $3.58B in a week. The dry powder is leaving before the regulatory catalyst lands distribution precedes legislation, never the reverse. Full breakdown in today's brief.
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Iran cut off US talks, WTI ripped past $92, equity futures shrugged at 0.2%. DEFCON calm at the aggregate, but stress is pinned in a single pipeline the geopolitical one. Mechanical, not conviction. This only breaks if crude holds above $95.
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