My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising

i get the vibe here, but... we do mostly need the capital for build AI that can do science, and for sure we are focused on AGI with almost all of our research effort. it is also nice to show people cool new tech/products along the way, make them smile, and hopefully make some money given all that compute need. when we launched chatgpt there was a lot of "who needs this and where is AGI". reality is nuanced when it comes to optimal trajectories for a company.

I now think @xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with @Grok 5. Never thought that before.

openai have achieved agi.

Wait until you see Grok 5. I think it has a shot at being true AGI. Haven’t felt that about anything before.

What’s next on the path to AGI? In Episode 5 of the OpenAI Podcast, Chief Scientist @merettm and Technical Fellow @sidorszymon join host @AndrewMayne to explore the journey to AGI so far — from today’s breakthroughs to the possibilities ahead.

“Join my AGI cult!” “No, join MY AGI cult!” Loop

I don't like the economic definitions because by 1800s standards ~90% of jobs have been automated already. It's inherently a moving target. The things that I think an AGI definition should capture are: (i) a phase shift from traditional "saved money from automation will get spent elsewhere and create new jobs" arguments being obviously true to being very false for at least a large subset of people (ii) the idea that humans are no longer unambiguous top dog My working definition of AGI for a while has been "AI powerful enough that if humans disappeared and it was put into robot bodies it would be able to independently continue civilization". I guess that counts in the "human-level" category?

ELON: WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO AGI Artificial General Intelligence - AI that can think, learn, and adapt across any task like a human - is almost here. AGI could generalize knowledge, reason autonomously, and even improve itself, potentially leaping to superintelligence. The upside? Medical breakthroughs, scientific revolutions, and solutions to global crises. The downside? Job wipeouts, ethical nightmares, and, if misaligned, a machine that could outthink and outmaneuver humanity.

Once AGI is achieved, we’ll just be side characters in the simulation.

we achieved gold medal level performance on the 2025 IMO competition with a general-purpose reasoning system! to emphasize, this is an LLM doing math and not a specific formal math system; it is part of our main push towards general intelligence. when we first started openai, this was a dream but not one that felt very realistic to us; it is a significant marker of how far AI has come over the past decade. we are releasing GPT-5 soon but want to set accurate expectations: this is an experimental model that incorporates new research techniques we will use in future models. we think you will love GPT-5, but we don't plan to release a model with IMO gold level of capability for many months.

agi less than an hour away. kinda wild.

agi time?

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