Joined February 2011
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Apr 6
Most divergence signals are inconsistent.
Price → highs/lows
Indicators → closes
That mismatch matters, especially on large candles.
I built an indicator to align both:
Source-Aligned Oscillators
Check divergence the right way.
tradingview.com/script/Yac6j…
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Apr 7
Soybean oil quietly breaking out.
4Y highs one of the steepest backwardation curves we’ve seen in a while.
After the Iran shock lit up energy, ags look like the next leg.
Tight nearby supply, curve steepening = market pulling demand forward.
Watch this space.
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Apr 4
TradingView just dropped an AI Copilot… so I had to test it 👀
Can it actually analyze charts and help traders — or is it just hype?
I ran it on real setups, indicators, and trends.
Some results surprised me…
🎥 Full review: youtu.be/XvhXHsTHmlA
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Apr 3
Brent is flashing a rare signal.
F1–F2 ≈ -$9.6
Roll yield ≈ -110% (record low)
This is not normal backwardation.
This is market stress.
Driven by Iran escalation Hormuz risk →
The market is scrambling for barrels now
Longs get crushed by carry.
Physical wins.
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Apr 1
ETF inflows resuming = institutions stepping back in.
The recent outflows? Likely a shakeout, not a shift in narrative.
financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-…
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Apr 1
VIX curve back to extreme compression again.
We’ve now seen the same pattern twice in ~2 weeks:
→ prolonged compression
→ sharp vol expansion
→ rapid re-compression
The market keeps “resetting” risk instead of repricing it.
That usually means uncertainty isn’t resolved — just postponed.
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Apr 1
VRP is rolling over after a spike — historically a strong signal that fear is fading and equities may rebound. Positioning reset = bullish tailwind for SPX.
tradingview.com/chart/SPX/2s…
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Mar 31
The ‘one tech trade’ is clearly breaking apart — dispersion is back. This is where passive flows struggle and stock-picking starts to matter again.
etftrends.com/tech-etfs-q1-f…
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Mar 25
VIX curve shifted slightly lower, but structure hasn’t changed.
Still extremely flat:
• Compression 0.83 (0.3 ex-front)
Market isn’t pricing a clear path — uncertainty is spread evenly across maturities.
Not calm. Just no conviction.
This kind of compression rarely lasts.
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Mar 24
Ex-front month, the VIX curve is basically flat.
Compression across the term structure is extreme — the market has no conviction on what comes next.
This isn’t calm. It’s uncertainty.
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Mar 23
VIX curve flattening again after Trump’s announcement.
Market still not pricing a clear path forward — hesitation > conviction.
Curve compression at 0.6 (high–low), which is very unusual for VIX.
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Mar 22
Perpetual futures are not what you think.
They’re not just “futures without expiry” — they’re driven by funding, leverage, and positioning.
If you’re only trading price, you’re missing the real mechanics.
Full breakdown:
quantribe.io/perpetual-futur…
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Mar 22
Heating Oil pushing higher, but internals are weakening:
OI down ~30% in a month → short covering
Curve still backwardated, but front deteriorating fast
Back holding → bearish steepening
Even with ongoing geopolitical risk, prompt tightness is fading.
That’s not a market pricing escalation.
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Mar 21
VIX just broke out of a rare compression regime
Curve range was ~0.6
(<2% of cases since 2004)
That’s not calm — that’s stored energy
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Mar 21
Scenarios:
🟢 22–25 → stabilization
🟡 28–32 → continuation
🔴 35 → acceleration
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Mar 21
Key idea:
Compression → Expansion is a regime shift
The move started
Now it’s about how far it goes next
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Mar 20
VIX is doing something rare right now.
The futures curve is extremely flat —
only ~0.6 difference from front to back.
That’s not normal.
Here’s why it matters 👇
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Mar 20
Important:
This is not a signal on its own.
But it is a condition where:
➡️ Risk becomes asymmetric
➡️ Calm can break quickly
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Mar 20
Final thought:
When volatility stops differentiating across time…
It usually means the market is about to
start differentiating again.
Fast.
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