NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | June 12, 2026 Our latest Maine U.S. Senate survey finds the race tightening sharply since March, with Graham Platner now holding a narrow 1-point edge over Susan Collins. 📊 Maine U.S. Senate 🔵 Graham Platner: 46% 🔴 Susan Collins: 45% ⚪️ Undecided: 7% ⚪️ Other: 2% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Generic Congressional Ballot 🔵 Democratic candidate: 50% 🔴 Republican candidate: 40% ⚪️ Undecided: 8% ⚪️ Other: 3% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Susan Collins Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 56% Very unfavorable: 49% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Graham Platner Favorable: 40% Unfavorable: 57% Very unfavorable: 37% The Maine Senate race has moved from an early Democratic advantage to a statistical tie. Platner led Collins by 7 points in our March survey, but now leads by just 1. Collins remains deeply underwater, yet she is running ahead of the Republican brand in a state where Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10. Platner’s standing has softened amid recent controversies, and the race remains highly competitive and unsettled.

It looks like we have nailed Graham’s top line finish. We never followed up as it looked out of reach from early on.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | June 5, 2026 Our first Texas general election survey of the cycle finds Republican candidates leading across the major statewide contests, with the U.S. Senate race standing as the closest fight. 📊 Texas Statewide Toplines U.S. Senate 🔴 Ken Paxton: 45% 🔵 James Talarico: 43% ⚪️ Undecided: 7% ⚪️ Other: 4% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Governor 🔴 Greg Abbott: 49% 🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 41% ⚪️ Undecided: 6% ⚪️ Other: 3% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Lt. Governor 🔴 Dan Patrick: 49% 🔵 Vikki Goodwin: 40% ⚪️ Undecided: 7% ⚪️ Other: 4% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Attorney General 🔴 Mayes Middleton: 47% 🔵 Nathan Johnson: 39% ⚪️ Undecided: 9% ⚪️ Other: 4% Key Takeaway Texas remains Republican-leaning, but still competitive this early in the cycle. The Senate race is the most fluid, with Paxton leading Talarico by just 2 points. Down ballot, Abbott, Patrick, and Middleton hold clearer advantages, with room for Republican consolidation as the general election environment takes shape.

U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May blowing past expectations of ~80k. Unemployment rate: Steady at 4.3% (narrow range of 4.3–4.5% since mid-2025) Wage growth: Average hourly earnings 0.3% MoM to $37.53. 3.4% YoY.

Generic ballot check-in: Using RCP’s public polling list, we averaged generic ballot toplines since April, treating each poll equally. So, no weighting by pollster or sample size. 🔵 April averaged D 5.2 across 21 polls. 🔵 May averaged D 6.4 across 25 polls. That puts May about 1.2 points more Democratic than April. We also looked at poll-to-poll dispersion using a t-based confidence interval. Even applying a conservative 2.5-point directional polling-error band, the picture remains consistent: 🔵 April: D 2.7 to D 7.7 🔵 May: D 3.9 to D 8.9 That lines up with Quantus’ own 2026 generic ballot trend, which has shown similar stability: D 6 in January, D 6 in February, D 5/D 6/D 5 in March, D 5 in April, and D 5 in June. So the polling trend remains the same. A continued modest polling lead (we'd call 5-6 pt margin modest) for Democrats in April, and May was modestly stronger for Democrats than April.

NEW SURVEY: Quantus Insights National Poll The national mood is largely unchanged from our late April survey. Trump remains underwater on job approval, most voters say the country is on the wrong track, Democrats hold a modest edge on the generic ballot, and voters are highly motivated heading into 2026. Yet the same electorate also gives majority support to proof-of-citizenship voting requirements and Medicaid work requirements. Trump Job Approval 🟢 Approve: 42.0% 🔴 Disapprove: 56.3% ⚪️ Unsure: 1.6% –––––––––––––––––– National Direction 🔴 Wrong Track: 60.6% 🟢 Right Direction: 35.7% ⚪️ Not Sure: 3.7% –––––––––––––––––– Generic Congressional Ballot 🔵 Democrat: 47.0% 🔴 Republican: 42.3% ⚪️ Undecided/Other: 10.7% ––– 🟡 Margin: D 4.7 –––––––––––––––––– 2026 Midterm Motivation 🟢 Extremely/Very Motivated: 87.2% ⚪️ Somewhat Motivated: 6.8% 🔴 Not Very/Not At All Motivated: 6.1% –––––––––––––––––– SAVE America Act (Proof of Citizenship) 🟢 Support: 62.8% 🔴 Oppose: 29.8% ⚪️ Unsure / Haven’t Heard Enough: 7.4% –––––––––––––––––– Medicaid Work Requirements 🟢 Support: 64.4% 🔴 Oppose: 21.1% ⚪️ Unsure: 14.5% –––––––––––––––––– Trump Handling Iran 🟢 Approve: 39.0% 🔴 Disapprove: 59.5% ⚪️ Not Sure: 1.5% –––––––––––––––––– 1,050 LV | MoE ±3.0% | June 1–2, 2026. Visit quantusinsights [dot] org for the report and link to cross tabs.

This is a wrap. Major swings all over. Paxton can pull up and walk to the finish line now.

What we're watching for tonight in the Texas Republican Senate runoff. 1. Early vote (~61% of ballots) is banked and roughly even. Cornyn's metros turned out early (Travis 80%, Lubbock 78%, Harris 74% recovery). Watch the first EV dump: Near-even or slight Cornyn margin is expected. 2. Election Day breaks Paxton. His rural base votes late (32% early recovery vs 42% suburban). The margin should widen toward Paxton as Election-Day precincts report. 3. Canaries for a Cornyn night: If Paxton wins Austin or Waco-Temple-Bryan, he's overperforming. Both should hold for Cornyn according to our model. What we might expect to see in a 10 Paxton environment (by media market). We have several other scenarios to the left and to the right of our center tendency as well, and will share them accordingly.

The turnout data confirms model uncertainty and model projections in equal measure, and the net is a wash. The early-vote geography is essentially a replay of March to an even outcome. Nothing seems to point toward and expanded electorate for Cornyn as theorized by some. We still project Paxton as the clear favorite to win tomorrow night.

See our election eve poll for the Texas Senate GOP runoff. Link to article and cross tabs in the comments.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 25, 2026 Texas Republicans vote tomorrow in the U.S. Senate runoff, and our final survey finds Ken Paxton entering Election Day with the edge over John Cornyn. 📊 Texas GOP Senate Runoff 🔴 Ken Paxton: 52.7% 🔴 John Cornyn: 43.4% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.9% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Key Takeaway Paxton begins Election Day above 50% and leads Cornyn by 9.3 points among likely Republican runoff voters. President Trump’s endorsement was widely known, with 87.8% aware of it. Most voters said it did not affect their vote, but among those who said it moved them, the movement broke toward Paxton: 61.7% moved toward Paxton, compared with 38.3% toward Cornyn.

We now have the regional EV drops reconciled into one picture. Together, the sub/urban, rural, and South TX regions account for essentially the full GOP runoff electorate: ~2.23M March votes and ~855k runoff EV. The consistent finding across county, precinct, rural, South TX, and sub/urban data: Cornyn’s geography banked early. Sub/urban/Cornyn-leaning areas recovered about 41% of their March vote, while Paxton-leaning rural areas recovered about 32%. If March vote behavior held, the banked early vote is roughly Cornyn 2. If persuasion, defections, and transfer votes played any part then the result could be closer to tied or even tilt Paxton. None of this tells us the final result but it does tell us the likely shape of the race: Cornyn likely banked his best vote early. Paxton’s coaltion best vote is geared for Election Day turnout.

One thing standing out in the Texas GOP Senate runoff EV data: Cornyn’s county-mix advantage in the early vote is not coming mainly from deep-Cornyn counties. It’s concentrated in the large counties he won modestly in March. The strongest overperformance is in counties Cornyn carried by 0–10 points: -Runoff EV share: 41.4% -March electorate share: 38.2% -Net change: 3.1 pts That is not unexpected and suggest the geographic EV turnout pattern is not obviously tilted toward a Paxton-heavy map. Still, county composition only tells us so much. The key unknown is whether voters inside those counties are behaving like they did in March or whether the electorate has consolidated toward Paxton and shifted since then.