We're growing, and with that comes a more structured research schedule. Every week, we'll publish at least one new research piece. Starting now: - Free content, when published, will be released on Wednesdays - Initiating Coverage reports, when published, will be released on Sundays, giving subscribers dedicated time to read and digest our 8,000–10,000-word research pieces - Coverage updates will be published within 72 hours of material events - The QS Index Performance Update will be published on the first available weekend of each month Some weeks will include multiple articles. If news flow gets busy, we'll send a weekend recap rather than flood your inbox. Subscribe via the link in bio.

The market prices Rheinmetall at a defense multiple. But it prices fuel tankers, rail operators, and sustainment contractors as if defense is a rounding error. For most of them, it is. That's the entire point. quartz-sea.com/the-iron-tail…

The Virginia facility is the strategic pivot. $537.6mn greenfield SRM plant in Hurt, Virginia. 700 tons annual capacity. Operational by 2028. Western defense faces acute SRM shortage. Avio is one of few Western suppliers capable of scaling production immediately.

Starlink hype has pushed capital into anything space-related. Avio became the proxy. Reality: low-margin European industrial contractor with 6.0% EBITDA margin and rigid institutional pricing.

Defense propulsion segment: €150mn contract with MBDA Italia (Dec 2024) €60mn contract with MBDA France (Jul 2025) $65mn, 3-year DoD contract (Mar 2026) Structural rearmament cycle is real. This is the margin-expansion opportunity.

November 2025: €400mn capital raise via rights issue at €20.37/share (29.6% discount to TERP). Net cash position surged to €591.7mn. This funds the Virginia solid rocket motor facility. But until deployed, it creates severe ROE and ROIC drag.

The United States hasn't meaningfully produced TNT domestically since the 1980s. At conflict start, Russia outproduced the entire Western alliance in artillery shells 4:1. The constraint isn't the weapon. It's the chemistry inside it. quartz-sea.com/the-iron-tail…

We're growing, and with that comes a more structured research schedule. Every week, we'll publish at least one new research piece. Starting now: - Free content, when published, will be released on Wednesdays - Initiating Coverage reports, when published, will be released on Sundays, giving subscribers dedicated time to read and digest our 8,000–10,000-word research pieces - Coverage updates will be published within 72 hours of material events - The QS Index Performance Update will be published on the first available weekend of each month Some weeks will include multiple articles. If news flow gets busy, we'll send a weekend recap rather than flood your inbox. Subscribe via the link in bio.

The market is pricing this as SpaceX: it's not. We see a 10% downside from current prices.

FY25 revenue: SEK 433mn ( 94% YoY) FY25 EBITDA margin: 17.9% Q1 2026 EBITDA margin: 21.4% Operating leverage is kicking in. Management targets SEK 2.5bn revenue by FY28. We see a clear path.

FY2026 guidance confirmed: CZK 30-33bn revenue, CZK 7.4-8.2bn Adj. EBITDA. Management targets align precisely with our May 13th coverage assumptions. Q1 results validate rather than revise the model. Buy rating maintained, CZK 1,400 target unchanged.

Lorenzo Mariani appointed CEO effective May 7th. 30-year internal veteran, former Co-General Manager, recent Executive Group Director at MBDA. Operational continuity secured. New standalone Cyber Security division reports directly to CEO. Execution-focused leadership for 2024–2030 plan.

The European defense supercycle is just starting, yet coverage is nonexistent. We fix this. Subscribe today, and become an expert: quartz-sea.com/#/portal/sign…

Coverage portfolio performance as of June 14th, 2026 - QTD: -5.31% (vs. -4.33% benchmark) - MTD: -1.27% (vs. 0.91% benchmark) The relative performance still reflects concentration effects and the early-stage composition of our coverage universe.

FY25 financials: Revenue: €541.7mn ( 22.7% YoY) EBITDA: €30.1mn (5.1% margin) Net income: €10.5mn Order backlog: €2.2bn (4 years visibility) Top-line momentum exists. Operating leverage remains weak.

Order book approaching SEK 800mn post-acquisitions. Cash flow from operations: SEK 40.5mn in Q1 2026 (vs. SEK 6.7mn in Q1 2025). Visibility is building. Equity remains mispriced. Buy rating, SEK 45.00 target:

The European defense supercycle is just starting, yet coverage is nonexistent. We fix this. Subscribe today, and become an expert: quartz-sea.com/#/portal/sign…

QuartzSea Research initiates coverage on Avio S.p.A. (AVIO-IT) - Rating: Underperform - Target: EUR 33.00 Full report in the replies